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Saturday, 31 October 2020
Gold Price Forecast - The Calm Before the US Election Storm
Gold Price Forecast - The Calm Before the US Election Storm
US Dollar Outlook Hinges on Presidential Election, Covid-19, FOMC
US Dollar Outlook Hinges on Presidential Election, Covid-19, FOMC
Crude Oil Volatility to Surge on FOMC Decision, US Presidential Election?
Crude Oil Volatility to Surge on FOMC Decision, US Presidential Election?
U.S. Dollar Recovers After Seeing Early Weakness
After coming under pressure in morning trading on Friday, the U.S. dollar has shown a notable recovery over the course of the day.
The U.S. dollar index is currently trading at 94.03, up 0.1 percent from the previous close, after falling as low as 93.65 earlier in the day.
The greenback is trading at 104.69 yen versus the 104.61 yen it fetched at the close of New York trading on Thursday. Against the euro, the dollar is valued at $1.1647 compared to yesterday's $1.1674.
The recovery by the dollar came as the currency benefitted from its safe haven appeal amid a continued spike in coronavirus cases.
The number of new COVID-19 cases in the United States reached a new record high on Thursday, with health experts expecting cases to soar going forward and death rates to triple by mid-January.
88,521 new coronavirus cases were reported in the U.S. on Thursday, according to data from Johns Hopkins University, an increase of 9,540 cases compared to Wednesday.
Uncertainty about the outcome of next week's presidential election may also have inspired traders to seek the relatively safe haven of the dollar.
In U.S. economic news, the Commerce Department released a report showing personal income rebounded by more than anticipated in the month of September.
The Commerce Department said personal income climbed by 0.9 percent in September after tumbling by a revised 2.5 percent in August.
Economists had expected personal income to rise by 0.4 percent compared to the 2.7 percent nosedive originally reported for the previous month.
The report also showed a bigger than expected increase in personal spending, which surged up by 1.4 percent in September. Spending was expected to match the 1.0 percent jump seen in August.
A separate report from the University of Michigan showed consumer sentiment improved slightly more than initially estimated in the month of October.
The report showed the consumer sentiment index for October was upwardly revised to 81.8 from the preliminary reading of 81.2. Economists had expected the reading to be unrevised.
With upward revision, the consumer sentiment index is a bit further above the final September reading of 80.4.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2166397/
Oil Prices See Further Downside Amid Concerns About Demand
Oil prices moved to the downside during trading on Friday, extending the steep drop seen over the two previous sessions.
After plunging by $2.18 on Wednesday and slumping by $1.22 on Thursday, crude for December delivery fell $0.38 to a five-month low of $35.79 a barrel.
Concerns about the outlook for energy demand continued to weigh on oil prices amid a continued spike in coronavirus cases.
The number of new COVID-19 cases in the United States reached a new record high on Thursday, with health experts expecting cases to soar going forward and death rates to triple by mid-January.
88,521 new coronavirus cases were reported in the U.S. on Thursday, according to data from Johns Hopkins University, an increase of 9,540 cases compared to Wednesday.
Uncertainty about the outcome of next week's presidential elections also generated selling pressure as recent polls show Democratic nominee Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump.
Biden has signaled he plans to shift the country away from fossil fuels toward renewal energy if he emerges victories.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2166396/
AUD/USD Breaks September Low Ahead of RBA, Fed Rate Decisions
AUD/USD Breaks September Low Ahead of RBA, Fed Rate Decisions
Treasuries Extend Yesterday's Move To The Downside
After coming under pressure over the course of the previous session, treasuries saw some further downside during trading on Friday.
Bond prices initially showed a lack of direction being slipping more firmly into negative territory. As a result, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, rose by 2.5 basis points to 0.850 percent.
With the increase on the day, the ten-year yield ended the session at its highest closing level in well over four months.
The weakness among treasuries was partly attributed to news that the Federal Reserve has adjusted the terms of the Main Street Lending Program to better target support to smaller businesses.
The Fed said the minimum loan size for three Main Street facilities available to for-profit and non-profit borrowers has been reduced from $250,000 to $100,000 and the fees have been adjusted to encourage the provision of these smaller loans.
Some upbeat economic data may also have reduced the appeal of treasuries, with a report from the Commerce Department showing personal income rebounded by more than anticipated in the month of September.
The Commerce Department said personal income climbed by 0.9 percent in September after tumbling by a revised 2.5 percent in August.
Economists had expected personal income to rise by 0.4 percent compared to the 2.7 percent nosedive originally reported for the previous month.
The report also showed a bigger than expected increase in personal spending, which surged up by 1.4 percent in September. Spending was expected to match the 1.0 percent jump seen in August.
A separate report from the University of Michigan showed consumer sentiment improved slightly more than initially estimated in the month of October.
The report showed the consumer sentiment index for October was upwardly revised to 81.8 from the preliminary reading of 81.2. Economists had expected the reading to be unrevised.
With upward revision, the consumer sentiment index is a bit further above the final September reading of 80.4.
The presidential election is likely to be in the spotlight next week, although the final results may not be known on election night.
Traders are also likely to keep an eye on reports on the monthly jobs report as well as the Federal Reserve's latest monetary policy decision.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2166395/
Gold Prices Regain Ground Following Sharp Pullback
After moving sharply lower over the two previous sessions, the price of gold regained some ground during trading on Friday.
Gold for December delivery climbed $11.90 to $1,879.90 an ounce after slumping $11.20 on Thursday and plunging $32.70 on Wednesday.
The price of gold initially benefited from a pullback by the U.S. dollar, although the U.S. dollar index has since rebounded from a low of 93.65 and is up 0.1 percent at 94.05
Gold prices held on to their gains despite the rebound by the dollar, as the precious metal continued to benefit from its safe haven appeal amid a continued spike in coronavirus cases.
The number of new COVID-19 cases in the United States reached a new record high on Thursday, with health experts expecting cases to soar going forward and death rates to triple by mid-January.
88,521 new coronavirus cases were reported in the U.S. on Thursday, according to data from Johns Hopkins University, an increase of 9,540 cases compared to Wednesday.
Meanwhile, traders shrugged off some upbeat economic data, with a report from the Commerce Department showing personal income rebounded by more than anticipated in the month of September.
A separate report from the University of Michigan showed consumer sentiment improved slightly more than initially estimated in the month of October.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2166394/
Friday, 30 October 2020
Australia Final Demand Producer Prices Rise 0.4% In Q3
Final demand producer prices in Australia were up 0.4 percent on quarter in the third quarter of 2020, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Friday - following the 1.2 percent drop in the previous three months.
On a yearly basis, producer prices were down 0.4 percent - steady from the three months prior.
Prices were higher among childcare services (+48.7 percent), petroleum refining and petroleum fuel manufacturing (+10.7 percent), and commercial fishing (+12.5 percent).
Prices were lower for computer and electronic equipment (-7.7 percent), other transport equipment (-6.0 percent) and clothing manufacturing (-8.4 percent).
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2166266/
Australia Private Sector Credit Gains 0.1% In September
Private sector credit in Australia was up 0.1 percent on month in September, the Reserve Bank of Australia said on Friday - following the flat reading in August.
On a yearly basis, credit rose 2.0 percent, slowing from 2.0 percent in the previous month.
Housing credit was up 0.4 percent on month and 3.3 percent on year, while personal credit sank 0.8 percent on month and 12/5 percent on year and business credit fell 0.3 percent on month but gained 2.0 percent on year.
Broad money was up 0.9 percent on month and 12.0 percent on year.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2166265/
*Australia Private Sector Credit +0.1% On Month, +2.0% On Year In September
Australia Private Sector Credit +0.1% On Month, +2.0% On Year In September
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2166264/
*Australia Final Demand Producer Prices +0.4% On Quarter, -0.4% On Year In Q3
Australia Final Demand Producer Prices +0.4% On Quarter, -0.4% On Year In Q3
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2166263/
Trump Vs. Biden on Economies and Markets
Japan Industrial Output Jumps 4.0% On Month In September
Industrial output in Japan climbed a seasonally adjusted 4.0 percent on month in September, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said on Friday.
That exceeded expectations for a gain of 3.2 percent following the 1.0 percent increase in August.
On a yearly basis, industrial production was down 9.0 percent - again beating expectations for a decline of 10.0 percent following the 13.8 percent fall in the previous month.
Upon the release of the data, the METI upgraded its assessment of industrial production, saying that it is now picking up.
Industries that contributed to the increase included motor vehicles, production machinery and electrical machinery - tempered by declines among business-oriented machinery and organic chemicals.
Shipments were up 3.8 percent on month and down 9.9 percent, while inventories sank 0.3 percent on month and 5.5 percent on year. The inventory ratio was down 3.7 percent on month and up 7.5 percent on year.
The METI's forecast for industrial production suggests a monthly increase of 4.5 percent in October and 1.2 percent in November.
Industries contributing to the increase in October include transport equipment, electrical machinery and production machinery. Industries contributing to the increase in November include production machinery, chemicals and iron and steel.
Also on Friday:
. Overall inflation in the Tokyo region of Japan was down 0.3 percent on year in October, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications said. That was in line with expectations following the 0.2 percent increase in September.
Core CPI, which excludes volatile food prices, sank an annual 0.5 percent - also in line with forecasts following the 0.2 percent drop in the previous month.
On a month basis, overall inflation was down 0.4 percent and core CPI slid 0.2 percent.
. The unemployment rate in Japan came in at a seasonally adjusted 3.0 percent in September, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications said. That was shy of forecasts for 3.1 percent and was unchanged from the August reading.
The jobs-to-applicant ratio was 1.03, missing forecasts for 1.04 - which would have been unchanged.
The number of employed persons in September was 66.89 million, a decrease of 790,000 from the previous year. The number of unemployed persons in September was 2.10 million, an increase of 420,000 from the previous year.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2166262/
Japan Industrial Production Rises 4.0% On Month In September
Industrial production in Japan was up a seasonally adjusted 4.0 percent on month in September, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said on Friday.
That beat forecasts for a gain of 3.2 percent following the 1.0 percent increase in August.
On a yearly basis, industrial production was down 9.0 percent - again beating expectations for a decline of 10.0 percent following the 13.8 percent fall in the previous month.
Upon the release of the data, the METI upgraded its assessment of industrial production, saying that it is now picking up.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2166261/
*Japan Industrial Production +4.0% On Year, -9.0% On Year In September
Japan Industrial Production +4.0% On Year, -9.0% On Year In September
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2166260/
Tokyo Overall Inflation Sinks 0.3% On Year In October
Overall inflation in the Tokyo region of Japan was down 0.3 percent on year in October, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications said on Friday.
That was in line with expectations following the 0.2 percent increase in September.
Core CPI, which excludes volatile food prices, sank an annual 0.5 percent - also in line with forecasts following the 0.2 percent drop in the previous month.
On a month basis, overall inflation was down 0.4 percent and core CPI slid 0.2 percent.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2166259/
South Korea Industrial Production Jumps 5.4% On Month In September
Industrial output in South Korea climbed a seasonally adjusted 5.4 percent on month in September, Statistics Korea said on Friday.
That beat expectations for an increase of 3.0 percent following the upwardly revised 0.3 percent contraction in August (originally -0.7 percent).
On a yearly basis, industrial production jumped 8.0 percent - again exceeding expectations for a gain of 1.7 percent following the upwardly revised 2.6 percent decline in the previous month (originally -3.0 percent).
For the third quarter of 2020, industrial production was up 5.7 percent on quarter and 0.9 percent on year.
The Index of all industry production in September increased 2.3 percent on month and 3.4 percent on year.
The Manufacturing Production Index added 5.9 percent on month and 8.3 percent on year. The Manufacturing Shipment Index jumped 7.5 percent on month and 6.9 percent on year. The Manufacturing Inventory Index fell 2.5 percent on month but increased 0.2 percent on year.
The Production Capacity Index added 0.7 percent on month and 1.9 percent on year. The Index of Capacity Utilization Rate jumped 6.0 percent on month and 4.2 percent on year. The Manufacturing Average Capacity Utilization Rate was 73.9 percent, which increased by 4.2 percentage points from the previous month.
The Index of Services rose 0.3 percent on month but was flat on year. The Retail Sales Index gained 1.7 percent on month and 4.4 percent on year.
The Equipment Investment Index climbed 7.4 percent on month and 16.8 percent on year. The Domestic Machinery Shipment Index jumped 11.7 percent on year. The value of Domestic Machinery Orders Received surged 22.9 percent on year.
The value of Construction Completed at constant prices advanced 6.4 percent on month and 6.3 percent on year. The value of Construction Orders Received at current prices increased 2.0 percent on year.
The Composite Coincident Index in September gained 0.4 percent on month. The Cyclical Component of Composite Coincident Index, which reflects current economic situations, increased by 0.3 points from the previous month.
The Composite Leading Index in September increased by 0.7 percent on month. The Cyclical Component of Composite Leading Index, which predicts the turning point in business cycle, increased by 0.4 points from the previous month.
Also on Friday, Statistics Korea said that the total value of retail sales in South Korea was up a seasonally adjusted 1.7 percent on month in September. That was higher than forecasts that suggested an increase of 1.5 percent following the 3.0 percent jump in August.
On a yearly basis, retail sales advanced 4.4 percent - again exceeding expectations for a gain of 4.0 percent following the 0.3 percent increase in the previous month.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2166258/
Japan Jobless Rate Steady At 3.0% In September
The unemployment rate in Japan came in at a seasonally adjusted 3.0 percent in September, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications said on Friday.
That was shy of forecasts for 3.1 percent and was unchanged from the August reading.
The jobs-to-applicant ratio was 1.03, missing forecasts for 1.04 - which would have been unchanged.
The number of employed persons in September was 66.89 million, a decrease of 790,000 from the previous year. The number of unemployed persons in September was 2.10 million, an increase of 420,000 from the previous year.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2166257/
*Tokyo Overall Inflation -0.4% On Month, -0.3% On Year In October
Tokyo Overall Inflation -0.4% On Month, -0.3% On Year In October
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2166255/
*Tokyo Core CPI -0.2% On Month, -0.5% On Year In October
Tokyo Core CPI -0.2% On Month, -0.5% On Year In October
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2166256/
*Japan Unemployment Rate 3.0% In September
Japan Unemployment Rate 3.0% In September
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2166254/
South Korea Retail Sales Advance 1.7% In September
The total value of retail sales in South Korea was up a seasonally adjusted 1.7 percent on month in September, Statistics Korea said on Friday.
That was higher than forecasts that suggested an increase of 1.5 percent following the 3.0 percent jump in August.
On a yearly basis, retail sales advanced 4.4 percent - again exceeding expectations for a gain of 4.0 percent following the 0.3 percent increase in the previous month.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2166253/
South Korea Industrial Output Jumps 5.4% On Month In September
Industrial production in South Korea climbed a seasonally adjusted 5.4 percent on month in September, Statistics Korea said on Friday.
That beat expectations for an increase of 3.0 percent following the upwardly revised 0.3 percent contraction in August (originally -0.7 percent).
On a yearly basis, industrial production jumped 8.0 percent - again exceeding expectations for a gain of 1.7 percent following the upwardly revised 2.6 percent decline in the previous month (originally -3.0 percent).
For the third quarter of 2020, industrial production was up 5.7 percent on quarter and 0.9 percent on year.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2166252/
*South Korea Retail Sales +1.7% On Month, +4.4% On Year In September
South Korea Retail Sales +1.7% On Month, +4.4% On Year In September
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2166251/
*South Korea Industrial Production +5.4% On Month, +8.0% On Year In September
South Korea Industrial Production +5.4% On Month, +8.0% On Year In September
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2166250/
Japan Data Due On Friday
Japan is scheduled to release a batch of data of Friday, headlining a busy day for Asia-Pacific economic activity. On tap are September numbers for industrial production, unemployment, housing starts and construction orders, as well as October figures for Tokyo inflation.
In August, industrial production was up 1.0 percent on month and down 13.8 percent on year, while the jobless rate was 3.0 percent, housing starts sank 9.1 percent on year and construction orders surged 28.5 percent on year. In September, overall Tokyo inflation was up 0.2 percent on year and core CPI fell 0.2 percent.
Australia will see September figures for private sector credit and Q3 data for producer prices. In August, credit was flat on month and up 2.2 percent on year. In Q2, producer prices fell 1.2 percent on quarter and 0.4 percent on year.
South Korea will provide September figures for construction output, industrial production and retail sales. In August, construction output was down 9.4 percent on year, while industrial production fell 0.7 percent on month and 3.0 percent on year and retail sales gained 3.0 percent on month and 0.3 percent on year.
Taiwan will see advance Q3 numbers for gross domestic product, with forecasts suggesting an increase of 1.5 percent on year. That follows the 0.58 percent decline in the three months prior.
Hong Kong will see advance Q3 numbers for gross domestic product; in Q2, GDP was down 0.1 percent on quarter and 9.0 percent on year.
Thailand will release September numbers for retail sales, current account and its coincident index. In August, sales sank 11.1 percent on year, while the current account surplus was $3 billion and the coincident index score was 125.21.
Finally, the markets in Indonesia remain closed in observance of the birth of the prophet Muhammad and will re-open on Monday.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2166249/
Dollar Stays Firm Against Peers
The U.S. Dollar extended its march over most of its peers to yet another session, as rising worries about growth due to the surge in coronavirus infections supported the currency's uptick on Thursday.
Data showing a notable expansion in U.S. GDP in the third quarter, and a drop in jobless claims in the week ended October 24th, further supported dollar's upmove.
Data from the Commerce Department said real gross domestic product skyrocketed by 33.1% in the third quarter after plunging by 31.4% in the second quarter. Economists had expected GDP to soar by 31%.
The substantial rebound in GDP came as consumer spending bounced back sharply, spiking by 40.7% in the third quarter after plummeting by 33.2% in the second quarter.
Data from the Labor Department showed initial jobless claims in the U.S. dropped to 751,000 in the week ended October 24th, a decrease of 40,000 from the previous week's revised level of 791,000. Economists had expected jobless claims to dip to 775,000 from the 787,000 originally reported for the previous week.
The dollar index rose to 94.10, and despite paring some gains, was still firmly up with a strong gain of 0.55% at 93.92.
Against the Euro, the dollar firmed up over 0.6% at $1.1675. The Euro was mostly lower against other major currencies today after the European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said that surging Covid-19 cases and reimposition of lockdowns are challenging the bloc's fragile economic recovery and the central bank is prepared to deliver additional stimulus at the next policy meeting in December.
Against the Sterling, the dollar firmed up to $1.2881 before easing to $1.2927, but still stayed strong, gaining about 0.43%.
The Yen was weaker at 104.63 a dollar, sliding from 104.32 a dollar on Wednesday.
The Aussie was weak, fetching $0.7028 a unit, nearly 0.25% less than previous close of $0.7045.
The Swiss franc was down by about 0.6% at 0.9159 a dollar, easing from $0.9105, while the Loonie was little changed at C$1.3326, recovering from C$1.3390 a dollar.
Data released by Statistics Canada this morning showed the value of building permits in Canada increased by 17% in September to C$9.4 billion following a downwardly revised 1.4% increase in the previous month.
Average weekly earnings of Canadian non-farm payroll employees rose 7.9% in August after rising 8.7% a month earlier.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2166248/
Crude Oil Futures Settle Sharply Lower Again
Crude oil prices fell sharply on Thursday amid concerns over outlook for energy demand due to continued surge in coronavirus cases and tighter lockdown measures in several countries.
West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures for December ended down $1.22 or about 3.3% at $36.17 a barrel, the lowest settlement in nearly five months.
Brent crude futures were lower by $1.25 or 3.1% at $38.39 a barrel.
Both WTI futures and Brent futures contracts tumbled by over 5% in the previous session.
Recent data from the Energy Information Administration showing crude inventories in the U.S. to have increased for the first time in three weeks, and increased output from Libya weighed on oil prices.
Also, with several countries in Europe, including the U.K., France, Germany and Spain tightening lockdown measures and several states across the U.S. seeing spikes in coronavirus cases, the demand for energy is likely to take a downturn in the near term.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel on Wednesday announced to begin a 'lockdown light' from November 2 to limit contact as much as possible and stem the rapid spread of virus.
France is set to go into a second national lockdown beginning at midnight tonight, while the British government is under pressure to develop a national strategy to combat the virus surge and "rescue Christmas".
The World Health Organization said for the second consecutive week, the European region accounted for the biggest proportion of new infections, with more than 1.3 million cases or about 46% of the worldwide total.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2166247/
Treasuries Move Notably Lower Following Upbeat Economic Data
After ending the previous session nearly unchanged, treasuries showed a notable move to the downside during trading on Thursday.
Bond prices moved steadily lower for much of the session before closing firmly in negative territory. As a result, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, climbed 5.4 basis points to 0.835 percent.
The weakness among treasuries came following the release of a report from the Commerce Department showing a stronger than expected rebound by the U.S. economy in the third quarter.
The Commerce Department said real gross domestic product skyrocketed by 33.1 percent in the third quarter after plunging by 31.4 percent in the second quarter. Economists had expected GDP to soar by 31.0 percent.
The substantial rebound in GDP came as consumer spending bounced back sharply, spiking by 40.7 percent in the third quarter after plummeting by 33.2 percent in the second quarter.
"Overall, the initial recovery in GDP after the first wave of lockdowns were lifted was stronger than we originally anticipated," said Paul Ashworth, Chief U.S. Economist at Capital Economics.
He added, "But, with coronavirus infections hitting a record high in recent days and any additional fiscal stimulus unlikely to arrive until, at the earliest, the start of next year, further progress will be much slower."
Further reducing the appeal of safe havens like treasuries, the Labor Department released a report showing initial jobless claims fell to their lowest level since before the coronavirus-induced lockdowns in the week ended October 24th.
The report said initial jobless claims dropped to 751,000, a decrease of 40,000 from the previous week's revised level of 791,000.
Economists had expected jobless claims to dip to 775,000 from the 787,000 originally reported for the previous week.
With the bigger than expected decrease, jobless claims fell to their lowest level since hitting 282,000 in the week ended March 14th.
Meanwhile, the National Association of Realtors released a report showing pending home sales unexpectedly pulled back off a record high in the month of September.
NAR said its pending home sales index slumped by 2.2 percent to 130.0 in September after spiking by 8.8 percent to 132.9 in August. The drop came as a surprise to economists, who had expected pending home sales to jump by another 3.4 percent.
A pending home sale is one in which a contract was signed but not yet closed. Normally, it takes four to six weeks to close a contracted sale.
Treasuries saw further downside in afternoon trading after the Treasury Department revealed this month's auction of $53 billion worth of seven-year notes attracted below average demand.
The seven-year note auction drew a high yield of 0.600 percent and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.24, while the ten previous seven-year note auctions had an average bid-to-cover ratio of 2.50.
The bid-to-cover ratio is a measure of demand that indicates the amount of bids for each dollar worth of securities being sold.
Economic data may continue to impact trading on Friday, with traders likely to keep an eye on reports on personal income and spending, Chicago-area business activity and consumer sentiment.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2166246/
Gold Futures Settle Lower On Dollar's Rise, Strong GDP Data
Gold prices drifted lower on Thursday and pushed the most active gold futures contract to another weak close, as the dollar strengthened and equities moved higher after data showed strong US GDP growth in the third quarter.
The dollar index rose to 94.10 and was last seen at 93.95, up nearly 0.6% from previous close.
Gold futures for December ended down $11.20 or about 0.6% at $1,868.00 an ounce, a fresh low in about a month.
Silver futures for December closed lower by $0.001 at $23.360 an ounce, while Copper futures for December settled at $3.0565 per pound, down $0.0075 from previous close.
Data from the Commerce Department said real gross domestic product skyrocketed by 33.1% in the third quarter after plunging by 31.4% in the second quarter. Economists had expected GDP to soar by 31%.
The substantial rebound in GDP came as consumer spending bounced back sharply, spiking by 40.7% in the third quarter after plummeting by 33.2% in the second quarter.
Data from the Labor Department showed initial jobless claims in the U.S. dropped to 751,000 in the week ended October 24th, a decrease of 40,000 from the previous week's revised level of 791,000. Economists had expected jobless claims to dip to 775,000 from the 787,000 originally reported for the previous week.
With the bigger than expected decrease, jobless claims fell to their lowest level since hitting 282,000 in the week ended March 14th.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2166245/
Thursday, 29 October 2020
*UK Sep Car Production Down 5% Annually: SMMT
UK Sep Car Production Down 5% Annually: SMMT
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2166150/
*Japan Oct Consumer Confidence 33.6 Vs. 32.7 In September
Japan Oct Consumer Confidence 33.6 Vs. 32.7 In September
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2166149/
European Economics Preview: ECB Monetary Policy Announcement Due
The interest rate announcement from the European Central Bank is due on Thursday, headlining a hectic day for the European economic news.
The ECB is likely to leave its key interest rate, which is the rate on the main refinancing operations, at a record low zero percent. Although no new measures are expected at this meeting, markets anticipate an indication about further easing from the central bank chief.
ECB President Christine Lagarde is set to hold customary press conference at 9.30 am ET.
Major economic reports due for the day are as follows:
At 4.00 am ET, Spain's INE is set to publish flash consumer price data for October. EU harmonized prices are forecast to decline 0.6 percent annually. In the meantime, unemployment data is due to Hungary.
At 4.55 am ET, the Federal Labor Agency is slated to release Germany's unemployment data for October. The number of jobless claims is seen falling 5,000 versus September's decline of 8,000.
At 5.30 am ET, the Bank of England publishes mortgage approvals for September. Economists forecast mortgage approvals to fall to 76,110 from 84,720 in the previous month.
At 6.00 am ET, Eurozone economic confidence survey data is due. The sentiment index is expected to fall to 89.5 in October from 91.1 in the previous month. At 9.00 am ET, Destatis is slated to issue Germany's preliminary consumer price figures for October. Economists forecast consumer prices to fall 0.3 percent on year, following a 0.2 percent drop in September.
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BoJ Leaves Monetary Policy Unchanged
Japan's central bank maintained its monetary policy easing as widely expected, and raised its growth projections.
The Policy Board of the BoJ headed by Haruhiko Kuroda voted 8-1 to retain the interest rate at -0.1 percent on current accounts that financial institutions maintain at the central bank.
The bank will continue to purchase necessary amount of Japanese government bonds without setting an upper limit so that 10-year JGB yields will remain at around zero percent.
The bank will actively buy exchange-traded funds and Japan real estate investment trusts so that their outstanding amounts will increase at annual paces with the upper limit of about JPY 12 trillion and around JPY 180 billion, respectively.
As for CP and corporate bonds, the bank will maintain their outstanding amounts at about JPY 2 trillion and JPY 3 trillion, respectively.
The bank said that the economy is likely to follow an improving trend with economic activity resuming and the impact of the coronavirus waning gradually. But the pace is forecast to be moderate.
The economy is forecast to shrink 5.5 percent in the fiscal 2020 versus previous outlook of -4.7 percent. The growth outlook for fiscal 2021 was raised to 3.6 percent from 3.3 percent and that for 2022 to 1.6 percent from 1.5 percent.
Consumer prices are projected to rise 0.4 percent in the fiscal 2021 compared to the previous outlook of 0.3 percent. At the same time, the outlook for the fiscal 2022 was retained at 0.7 percent.
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*BoJ Lifts Fiscal 2021 Inflation Forecast To 0.4% From 0.3%
BoJ Lifts Fiscal 2021 Inflation Forecast To 0.4% From 0.3%
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*BoJ Raises Fiscal 2021 Growth Outlook To 3.6% From 3.3%
BoJ Raises Fiscal 2021 Growth Outlook To 3.6% From 3.3%
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British Pound (GBP) Latest: GBP/USD Rallying After Wednesday's Spike Lower
EU Stoxx 50 May Fall Further on European Lockdowns Ahead of ECB
Crude Oil, Gold Prices May Fall Further if US GDP Data Disappoints
*BoJ Keeps Policy Rate Unchanged At -0.10%
BoJ Keeps Policy Rate Unchanged At -0.10%
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Australia Q3 Import Prices Fall 3.5% On Quarter, 5.7% On Year
Import prices in Australia were down 3.5 percent on quarter in the third quarter of 2020, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday - after slipping 1.9 percent in the previous three months.
On a yearly basis, import prices dropped 5.7 percent.
Main contributors to the fall were: telecommunications and sound recording equipment (-7.2 percent); office machines and ADP machines (-8.7 percent); and articles of apparel and clothing (-8.5 percent).
Export prices fell 5.1 percent on quarter after slipping 2.4 percent in Q2; they were down 9.9 percent on year.
Main contributors to the fall were: gas, natural and manufactured (-39.7 percent); coal, coke and briquettes (-20.6 percent); and meat and meat preparations (-6.9 percent).
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*Australia Export Prices -5.1% On Quarter In Q3
Australia Export Prices -5.1% On Quarter In Q3
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*Australia Import Prices -3.5% On Quarter In Q3
Australia Import Prices -3.5% On Quarter In Q3
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Japan Retail Sales Sink 8.7% On Year In September
The value of retail sales in Japan was down 8.7 percent on year in September, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said on Thursday - coming in at 12.101 trillion yen.
That missed forecasts for a decline of 7.7 percent following the 1.9 percent drop in August.
On a monthly basis, retail sales dipped 0.1 percent after climbing 4.6 percent in the previous month.
Commercial sales were up 4.9 percent on month and down 12.8 percent on year at 43.691 trillion yen, while wholesale sales gained 3.1 percent on month and lost 14.8 percent on year at 31.590 trillion yen.
For the third quarter of 2020, retail sales were up 8.4 percent on quarter and down 4.6 percent on year at 36.947 trillion yen.
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*Japan Retail Sales -0.1% On Month, -8.7% On Year In September
Japan Retail Sales -0.1% On Month, -8.7% On Year In September
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Bank Of Japan Rate Decision On Tap For Thursday
The Bank of Japan will wrap up its monetary policy meeting and then announce its decision on interest rates, highlighting a busy day for Asia-Pacific economic activity. The central bank is widely expected to keep its benchmark lending rate unchanged at -0.1 percent although it may introduce other forms of stimulus.
Japan also will release September figures for retail sales and October figures for consumer confidence. In August, retail sales gained 4.6 percent on month and fell 1.9 percent on year, while the consumer confidence index score in September was 32.7.
Australia will see Q3 numbers for import and export prices; in the three months prior, import prices were down 1.9 percent on quarter and export prices were down 2.4 percent.
Singapore will provide September figures for import and export prices and producer prices, as well as preliminary Q3 data for unemployment. In August, import prices were down 6.8 percent on year, export prices dropped 8.2 percent on year and producer prices tumbled 9.4 percent on year. In the previous three months, the jobless rate was 2.8 percent.
Finally, the markets in Malaysia and Indonesia are closed on Thursday in observance of the birth of the prophet Muhammad. Malaysia will re-open on Friday, while Indonesia is off until Monday.
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South Korea Business Survey Index Climbs To 79.0 - BoK
Business sentiment in South Korea improved in October, the latest survey from the Bank of Korea showed on Thursday with a Business Survey Index score of 79.0 - up from 68.0 in September.
The outlook also improved, rising to 78.0 from 70.0 in September.
In the non-manufacturing sector, the BSI on business conditions for October was 69, up 7 points from the previous month, and that for the outlook for the following month also rose by 7 points to 69.
The Economic Sentiment Index (ESI) - a composite of the BSI and the CSI (Consumer Survey Index) - for October was 85.9, up 12.7 points from September.
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ASX 200 and Nikkei 225 Vulnerable to Further Declines as US Stocks Tumble
Dollar Stays Firm Against Peers
The U.S. dollar stayed firm against its peers on Wednesday on safe-haven appeal amid reports showing record spikes in coronavirus cases and the move by several governments to impose tougher restrictions to curb the virus spread.
Uncertainty about outcome of the upcoming U.S. presidential elections, and stalled stimulus talks hurt riskier currencies, and aided the greenback's uptick.
The dollar index rose to 94.65 early on in the day, and despite paring some gains as the session progressed, was still up in positive territory at 93.43 with a fairly strong gain of 0.53%.
Against the Euro, the dollar firmed up to $1.1718 before easing to $1.1749, still up 0.4% from previous close.
The Pound Sterling was weaker, fetching $1.2984, compared to $1.3046 Tuesday evening.
The Yen was slightly up at 104.33 a dollar, gaining from 104.42.
With the AUD-USD pair was trading at 0.7043, the Aussie is weaker by more than 1.2% against the greenback.
The Swiss franc was weaker with a dollar fetching CHF0.9104, about 0.2% more than previous close, while the Loonie was at 1.3322 a dollar, down more than 1%.
The loonie weakened after the Bank of Canada left its interest rate unchanged at 0.25% and recalibrated the QE program to conduct purchases of longer-term bonds.
The bank said total purchases will be gradually reduced to at least C$4 billion a week and that it will continue the QE program until the recovery is well underway.
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*South Korea Business Confidence Index 79.9 In October - BoK
South Korea Business Confidence Index 79.9 In October - BoK
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Treasuries Close Nearly Unchanged After Seeing Initial Strength
After moving to the upside early in the session, treasuries pulled back near the unchanged line over the course of the trading day on Wednesday.
Bond prices pulled back well off their early highs before ending the day nearly unchanged. Subsequently, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, inched up by less than a basis point to 0.781 percent after hitting a low of 0.746 percent.
The initial strength among treasuries reflected their appeal as a safe haven amid concerns about a recent spike in coronavirus cases.
The U.S. averages more than 70,000 new coronavirus cases a day over a week, with 29 states setting new records this month for the most new daily cases since the pandemic began in February.
More than 8.78 million cases have been reported nationwide and at least 226,000 people have died of COVID-19, according to data from John Hopkins University.
According to JHU, the average number of daily new cases this past week is up 21 percent compared to the previous week.
Meanwhile, President Donald Trump has continued to downplay the pandemic in recent days, accusing the media of focusing too much on the disease ahead of next week's elections.
"Covid, Covid, Covid is the unified chant of the Fake News Lamestream Media. They will talk about nothing else until November 4th., when the Election will be (hopefully!) over," Trump tweeted. "Then the talk will be how low the death rate is, plenty of hospital rooms, & many tests of young people."
The subsequent pullback by treasuries may have reflected profit taking following the upward trend seen over the past few sessions.
Treasuries continued to give back ground as the Treasury Department revealed that its sale of $55 billion worth of five-year notes attracted below average demand.
The five-year note auction drew a high yield of 0.330 percent and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.38, while the ten previous five-year note auctions had an average bid-to-cover ratio of 2.50.
The bid-to-cover ratio is a measure of demand that indicates the amount of bids for each dollar worth of securities being sold.
The Treasury is scheduled to announce the results of its auction of $53 billion worth of seven-year notes on Thursday.
Trading on Thursday may also be impacted by reaction to reports on initial jobless claims and pending home sales.
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Oil Futures End Sharply Lower
Crude oil futures ended sharply lower on Wednesday, weighed down by data showing a notable increase in crude inventories, and worries about energy demand due to rising coronavirus cases.
Worries about energy demand outweighed even reports about declines in output from facilities in the Gulf of Mexico, that have been shuttered due to Hurricane Zeta.
West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures for December ended down $2.18 or about 5.5% at $37.39 a barrel, the lowest settlement in more than three weeks.
Brent crude futures were down by about $2.10 or 5.1% at $39.10 a barrel.
Data released by U.S. Energy Information Administration this morning showed crude inventories in the U.S. rose by about 4.3 million barrels in the week ended October 23, rising for the first time in three weeks.
The American Petroleum Institute reported late Tuesday that U.S. crude inventories rose by 4.6 million barrels to about 495.2 million barrels last week, coming well above analyst expectations of a 1.2 million barrel build.
According to the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement, about two-thids of oil production and 45% of natural-gas production in the Gulf of Mexico region have been lost due to the shutting down of facilities along the Gulf coast.
In Covid-19 news, several countries, including the U.S., Germany, France and Spain are seeing sharp spikes in new infections. According to reports, the U.K., France and Germany are looking to impose tougher restrictions to curb the spread of the coronavirus infections.
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Gold Futures Settle Sharply Lower
Gold prices drifted lower on Wednesday as the dollar climbed up on safe-haven demand after stock prices fell amid mounting worries about growth due to rapid surge in new coronavirus cases across the world.
The dollar index rose to 93.65 before paring some gains. Still, at 93.40, it was up with a fairly strong gain of 0.5%.
Uncertainty about outcome of the upcoming elections, and stalled stimulus talks hurt riskier assets as well as the bullion market.
Investors were also winding up long positions in gold contracts in order to raise margins following a sharp drop in equity markets.
Gold futures for December ended lower by $32.70 or about 1.7% at $1,879.20 an ounce, off the session's low of $1,869.10. That was the contract's lowest close since September 25.
Silver futures for December closed lower by $1.211 at $23.359 an ounce, while Copper futures for December settled at $3.0640 per pound, down $0.0295 from previous close.
U.S. President Donald Trump admitted that talks have collapsed for a coronavirus stimulus package before Election Day.
"After the election, we will get the best stimulus package you have ever seen," Trump told reporters at the White House.
Coronavirus cases surged rapidly in the U.S. and Europe, raising worries of a deepening economic slowdown.
The U.S. reported a record increase in daily infection rate. Nearly 30 states reported record number of infections over the past week.
The situation in Europe is "serious and alarming" and the bloc must be more efficient with testing, contact tracing, vaccine and quarantine policies, the EU Council President, Charles Michel, told Italian daily La Stampa in an interview published today.
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Wednesday, 28 October 2020
European Economics Preview: France Consumer Confidence Data Due
Consumer confidence from France is due on Wednesday, headlining a light day for the European economic news.
At 3.00 am ET, Statistics Norway is scheduled to publish retail sales for September. Sales are forecast to grow 1 percent on month, reversing a 4.9 percent fall in August.
At 3.45 am ET, France's statistical office Insee releases consumer sentiment survey results. The indicator is expected to fall to 93 in October from 95 in September.
At 4.00 am ET, retail sales from Spain and business tendency survey data from Sweden are due.
At 4.30 am ET, Statistics Sweden publishes retail sales for September. Sales had dropped 0.3 percent on year in August.
At 5.00 am ET, Austria's manufacturing PMI data is due.
At 6.00 am ET, Italy's Istat releases producer prices for September. Prices had declined 3 percent annually in August.
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EUR/USD Slumps as COVID-19 Resurgence Roils the Euro Ahead of the ECB Rate Decision
*Malaysia Sep Imports Up 3.6% On Year
Malaysia Sep Imports Up 3.6% On Year
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*Malaysia Sep Exports 13.6% On Year
Malaysia Sep Exports 13.6% On Year
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British Pound (GBP) Latest: GBP/USD Hovering Close to 1.30 Amid Brexit Talks
*UK Oct Shop Prices Fall 1.2% On Year: BRC
UK Oct Shop Prices Fall 1.2% On Year: BRC
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Canadian Dollar Poised to Fall Ahead of Bank of Canada Rate Decision
How Will Markets React to the 2020 US Presidential Election?
Gold Price Coils Up in Tight Range. Will US Election Trigger Breakout?
Australia Q3 Inflation Climbs To 0.7% On Year
Consumer prices in Australia were up 0.7 percent on year in the third quarter of 2020, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday - in line with expectations following the 0.3 percent decline in the previous three months.
On a quarterly basis, inflation climbed 1.6 percent - exceeding expectations for 1.5 percent following the 1.9 percent contraction in the three months prior.
The Reserve Bank of Australia's trimmed mean was up 0.4 percent on quarter and 1.2 percent on year after slipping 0.1 percent on quarter and gaining 1.2 percent on year in Q2.
The RBA's weighted median was up 0.3 percent on quarter and 1.3 percent on year after rising 0.1 percent on quarter and 1.3 percent on year in the previous three months.
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*RBA Trimmed Mean +0.4% On Quarter, +1.2% On Year In Q3
RBA Trimmed Mean +0.4% On Quarter, +1.2% On Year In Q3
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*RBA Weighted Median +0.3% On Quarter, +1.3% On Year In Q3
RBA Weighted Median +0.3% On Quarter, +1.3% On Year In Q3
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*Australia Consumer Prices +1.6% On Quarter, +0.7% On Year In Q3
Australia Consumer Prices +1.6% On Quarter, +0.7% On Year In Q3
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S&P 500, Dow Jones: Can Stock Markets Predict Presidential Elections?
Japanese Yen Outlook: Wait-and-See Bank of Japan May Bolster JPY
Australia Inflation Data Due On Wednesday
Australia is on Wednesday scheduled to release Q3 figures for consumer prices, highlighting a light day for Asia-Pacific economic activity.
Inflation is tipped to rise 1.5 percent on quarter and 0.7 percent on year after sinking 1.9 percent on quarter and 0.3 percent on year in the previous three months.
The Reserve Bank of Australia's trimmed mean is tipped to add 0.3 percent on quarter and 1.1 percent on year after falling 0.1 percent on quarter and gaining 1.2 percent on year in Q2. The RBA's weighted median is expected to add 0.3 percent on quarter and 1.3 percent on year after gaining 0.1 percent on quarter and 1.3 percent on year in Q2.
Thailand will see September numbers for industrial production; in August, production was down 9.34 percent on year.
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Dow Jones Falls on Rising Virus Cases, Hang Seng Vulnerable to a Pullback
Dollar Turns In Sluggish Performance Against Peers
The U.S. dollar turned in a somewhat sluggish performance on Tuesday amid uncertainty about the outcome of the presidential election.
Due to a lack of progress in stimulus negotiations, the dollar saw some early strength, but lost its way fairly quickly with the focus shifting to upcoming election, and updates on coronavirus infections.
Traders were also reacting to the latest batch of economic data.
Data from the Commerce Department showed that new orders for U.S. manufactured durable goods jumped much more than expected in September, surging up by 1.9% in the month after rising by 0.4% in August. Economists had expected durable goods orders to increase by 0.5%.
A report from the Conference Board said its consumer confidence index edged down to 100.9 in October after jumping to a revised 101.3 in September. Economists had expected the index to inch up to 102.0 from the 101.8 originally reported for the previous month.
The dollar index, which edged up to 93.13 in the Asian session, fell to 92.79 around noon before recovering to 92.96. It had ended at 93.05 on Monday.
Against the Euro, the dollar was flat at $1.1810, recovering from $1.1840.
The Pound Sterling was stronger by about 0.25%, fetching $1.3056. It had earlier firmed up to $1.3080.
The Yen firmed up to 104.46 a dollar (down 0.36%), recovering from 104.84 a dollar in the Asian session.
The Aussie was down marginally against the dollar with the AUD-USD pair trading at 0.7129. Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Michele Bullock said Australia's economic recovery is likely to be unpredictable and uneven.
The Swiss franc was down slightly at 0.9081 a dollar, while the Loonie was trading at $1.3180, recovering from $1.3212 a dollar.
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South Korea Consumer Confidence Climbs In October
Consumer confidence in South Korea rebounded in October, the Bank of Korea said on Wednesday, as its latest index score jumped to 91.6 - up sharply from 79.4 in September.
Consumer sentiment regarding current living standards was five points higher than in September, at 86, and that concerning the future outlook for living standards was six points higher than in the previous month, at 91.
Consumer sentiment related to future household income was six points higher than in September, at 94, and that concerning future household spending was eight points higher than in the previous month, at 100.
Consumer sentiment concerning current domestic economic conditions was 16 points higher than in September, at 58, and that concerning future domestic economic conditions was 17 points higher than in the previous month, at 83.
The expected inflation rate for the following year was 1.8 percent.
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*South Korea Consumer Confidence Index 91.6 In October - BoK
South Korea Consumer Confidence Index 91.6 In October - BoK
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Crude Oil Futures Settle Notably Higher
Crude oil prices moved higher on Tuesday, lifted by reports about evacuation of over 150 offshore facilities along the U.S. Gulf Coast due to Hurricane Zeta.
Several producers including BP, Chevron and Equinor have reportedly evacuated platforms and halted production, due to the hurricane which is expected to sweep across the resort area and move through Gulf of Mexico oil fields.
West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures for December ended higher by $1.01 or about 2.6% at $39.57 a barrel.
Brent crude futures were rising nearly $0.60 or 1.4% at $41.04 a barrel.
The closure of key facilities across the Gulf of Mexico due to Hurricane Zeta has resulted in shutting down of about 16% or close to 300,000 barrels per day of oil output.
Oil's rise was somewhat capped by prospects of increased output from Libya, and weak energy demand outlook due to spikes in coronavirus cases across the U.S. and several countries in Europe.
Meanwhile, trader looked ahead to weekly inventory reports from the American Petroleum Institute (API) and U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). While API's report is due later today, the EIA is scheduled to release its data Wednesday morning.
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Treasuries Extend Move To The Upside Seen In Previous Session
Treasuries moved to the upside during trading on Tuesday, extending the upward move seen over the course of the previous session.
Bond prices moved steadily higher as the day progressed before closing firmly in positive territory. As a result, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, fell by 2.3 basis points to 0.778 percent.
The strength among treasuries came amid concerns about the recent spike in coronavirus cases as well as continued uncertainty about the prospects for a new stimulus bill.
Traders were also reacting to some mixed economic data, with separate reports showing a jump in durable goods orders and an unexpected dip in consumer confidence.
The Commerce Department released a report before the start of trading showing new orders for U.S. manufactured durable goods jumped by much more than expected in the month of September.
The report said durable goods orders surged up by 1.9 percent in September after rising by rising by 0.4 percent in August. Economists had expected durable goods orders to increase by 0.5 percent.
The much stronger than expected growth in durable goods orders came as orders for transportation equipment soared by 4.1 percent in September after slumping by 0.9 percent in August.
Excluding the spike in orders for transportation equipment, durable goods orders climbed by 0.8 percent in September compared to a 1.0 percent jump in the previous month. Ex-transportation orders were expected to rise by 0.4 percent.
Meanwhile, the Conference Board released a report unexpectedly showing a slight drop in confidence in the month of October.
The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index edged down to 100.9 in October after jumping to a revised 101.3 in September.
The pullback surprised economists, who had expected the index to inch up to 102.0 from the 101.8 originally reported for the previous month.
"Consumers' assessment of current conditions improved while expectations declined, driven primarily by a softening in the short-term outlook for jobs," said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board.
She added, "There is little to suggest that consumers foresee the economy gaining momentum in the final months of 2020, especially with COVID-19 cases on the rise and unemployment still high."
Separately, the Treasury Department revealed that its sale of $54 billion worth of two-year notes attracted modestly above average demand.
The two-year note auction drew a high yield of 0.151 percent and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.41, while the ten previous two-year note auctions had an average bid-to-cover ratio of 2.35.
The bid-to-cover ratio is a measure of demand that indicates the amount of bids for each dollar worth of securities being sold.
Looking ahead, the Treasury is due to announce the results of its auction of $55 billion worth of five-year notes on Wednesday and the results of its auction of $53 billion worth of seven-year notes on Thursday.
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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2166066/
Gold Futures Settle Higher On Safe-haven Demand
Gold prices moved higher on Tuesday on safe-haven demand as growth worries mounted amid continued surge in coronavirus cases across the world.
Gold prices were also supported by the dollar's retreat. The dollar index, which edged up to 93.13 in the Asian session, dropped to a low of 92.79 around noon, and was last seen at 92.85, down 0.21% from Monday's close.
Gold futures for December ended with a gain of $6.20 at $1,911.90 an ounce, rising from a low of $1,898.70.
Silver futures for December closed up by $0.150 at $24.570 an ounce, while Copper futures for December settled at $3.0935 per pound, gaining $0.0040.
A report from the Conference Board said U.S. consumer confidence unexpectedly showed a drop in the month of October.
The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index edged down to 100.9 in October after jumping to a revised 101.3 in September. Economists had expected the index to inch up to 102.0 from the 101.8 originally reported for the previous month.
Data from the Commerce Department showed new orders for U.S. manufactured durable goods jumped by much more than expected in the month of September, surging up by 1.9% after rising by 0.4% in August. Economists had expected durable goods orders to increase by 0.5%.
Meanwhile, fears are mounting due to the rapid surge in new coronavirus cases in several states. According to reports, the number of hospitalizations has reached a two-month high.
U.S. infectious disease expert Anthony Fauci called the situation "quite precarious" and said that a Covid-19 vaccine isn't an end-all solution to the pandemic.
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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2166065/
Tuesday, 27 October 2020
EUR/GBP Analysis: Brexit Hopes Bolster Pound Sterling
EUR/USD Outlook: Euro Battles Support, ECB May Signal December Action
China's Industrial Profits Rise For Fifth Month
China's industrial profits increased for the fifth straight month in September, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed Tuesday.
Industrial profits grew 10.1 percent on a yearly basis but slower than the 19.1 percent increase posted in August. This was the fifth consecutive rise.
The statistical office cited falling factory gate prices and rising raw material prices as major reason for the slowdown in industrial profits.
During January to September period, industrial profits declined 2.4 percent from the same period last year.
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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2166018/
European Economics Preview: Eurozone Private Sector Credit Data Due
Private sector credit data from euro area is due on Tuesday, headlining a light day for the European economic news.
At 2.00 am ET, Statistics Finland releases consumer confidence survey results for October.
At 3.45 am ET, France PPI for September is due. Prices had gained 0.1 percent on month in August.
At 4.00 am ET, Spain's unemployment data for the third quarter is due. The jobless rate is forecast to rise to 15.9 percent in the third quarter from 15.33 percent in the second quarter.
Half an hour later, Statistics Sweden releases foreign trade and household lending data.
At 5.00 am ET, Eurozone money supply data is due. M3 growth is forecast to rise to 9.6 percent in September from 9.5 percent in August.
At 7.00 am ET, the Confederation of British Industry publishes Distributive Trades survey data for October. The retail sales balance is forecast to fall to 1 percent from 11 percent in September.
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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2166017/
British Pound (GBP) Latest: GBP/USD Still Sliding Lower as Brexit Talks Continue
*China Sep Industrial Profits Rise 10.1% On Year
China Sep Industrial Profits Rise 10.1% On Year
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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2166016/
S&P 500 Index Perched At Key Support as Fiscal Aid Hopes Evaporate
Crude Oil Prices Fall as Second Viral Wave Dampens Demand Outlook
South Korea Q3 GDP Gains 1.9% On Quarter
South Korea's gross domestic product expanded a seasonally adjusted 1.9 percent on quarter in the third quarter of 2020, the Bank of Korea said in Tuesday's advance estimate.
That beat estimates for an increase of 1.7 percent following the 3.2 percent decline in the three months prior.
Real gross income gained 2.5 percent on quarter after shedding 1.9 percent in the second quarter.
On the expenditure side, private consumption contracted by 0.1 percent, as expenditures on semi-durable goods decreased. Government consumption rose by 0.1 percent, mainly due to increased health care benefits.
Construction investment contracted by 7.8 percent, as civil engineering decreased. Facilities investment grew by 6.7 percent, led by the growth of investment in machinery and transportation equipment.
Exports increased by 15.6 percent, as exports of goods such as motor vehicles and semiconductors expanded. Imports were up by 4.9 percent, owing to increased imports of crude oil and chemical products.
On the production side, agriculture, forestry and fishing production increased by 1.8 percent, mainly due to an increase in livestock production.
Manufacturing rose by 7.6 percent, mainly due to an increase in computer, electronic and optical products. Utilities supply fell by 7.4 percent, due to a decrease in electricity. Construction contracted by 5.5 percent, owing to a decrease in civil engineering.
Services grew by 0.7 percent, led by health and social work and finance & insurance.
On a yearly basis, GDP was down 1.3 percent - again beating forecasts for a fall of 1.9 percent following the 2.7 percent drop in the previous three months.
Gross domestic income was up 0.5 percent after sinking 1.9 percent in Q2.
Agriculture, forestry and fishing was down 5.9 percent on year, while manufacturing was down 1.0 percent, utilities gained 7.3 percent, construction fell 2.2 percent and services dipped 1.5 percent.
Exports were down 3.7 percent on year and imports lost 5.3 percent.
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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2166015/
South Korea GDP Grows 1.9% On Quarter In Q3
South Korea's gross domestic product gained a seasonally adjusted 1.9 percent on quarter in the third quarter of 2020, the Bank of Korea said in Tuesday's advance estimate.
That beat estimates for an increase of 1.7 percent following the 3.2 percent decline in the three months prior.
Real gross income gained 2.5 percent on quarter after shedding 1.9 percent in the second quarter.
On a yearly basis, GDP was down 1.3 percent - again beating forecasts for a fall of 1.9 percent following the 2.7 percent drop in the previous three months.
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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2166014/
*South Korea GDP +1.9% On Quarter, -1.3% On Year In Q3
South Korea GDP +1.9% On Quarter, -1.3% On Year In Q3
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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2166013/
New Zealand Posts NZ$1.0 Billion Trade Shortfall In September
New Zealand posted a merchandise trade deficit of NZ$1.0 billion in September, Statistics New Zealand said on Tuesday - following the NZ$353 million shortfall in August.
Exports sank NZ$350 million or 8.0 percent on year to NZ$4.0 billion.
Crude oil led the fall, down NZ$110 million. Milk powder, butter, and cheese exports fell NZ$97 million this month, led by falls in milk fats including butter (down NZ$35 million), and milk powder (down NZ$31 million).
Imports were down NZ$643 million or 11.0 percent on year to NZ$5.0 billion.
Car imports were down sharply, while other contributors to the fall in imports were aircraft and parts (down NZ$117 million), turbo-jets and propellers parts (down NZ$56 million), and cell phones (down NZ$37 million).
For the third quarter of 2020, New Zealand had a trade surplus of NZ$1.2 billion.
Imports were up a seasonally adjusted 3.3 percent on quarter to NZ$13.6 billion following the 16 percent drop in Q2. Exports added 0.7 percent to NZ$14.8 billion following the 5.4 percent fall in the second quarter.
On an annual basis, exports rose NZ$1.2 billion or 2.0 percent to NZ$60.3 billion, while imports fell NZ$5.9 billion or 9.1 percent to NZ$58.6 billion for a trade surplus of NZ$1.7 billion.
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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2166012/
Dow Jones Pulls Nikkei 225, ASX 200 lower on Alarming Covid-19 Resurgence
New Zealand Has NZ$1.0 Billion Trade Deficit In September
New Zealand had a merchandise trade deficit of NZ$1.0 billion in September, Statistics New Zealand said on Tuesday - following the NZ$353 million shortfall in August.
Imports were down NZ$643 million or 11.0 percent on year to NZ$5.0 billion, while exports sank NZ$350 million or 8.0 percent to NZ$4.0 billion.
For the third quarter of 2020, New Zealand had a trade surplus of NZ$1.2 billion.
Imports were up a seasonally adjusted 3.3 percent on quarter to NZ$13.6 billion following the 16 percent drop in Q2. Exports added 0.7 percent to NZ$14.8 billion following the 5.4 percent fall in the second quarter.
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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2166011/
*New Zealand Trade Deficit NZ$1.0 Billion In September
New Zealand Trade Deficit NZ$1.0 Billion In September
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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2166010/
*New Zealand Exports -8.0% In September; Imports -11%
New Zealand Exports -8.0% In September; Imports -11%
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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2166009/
South Korea GDP Data Due On Tuesday
South Korea will on Tuesday release an advance estimate for Q3 gross domestic product, highlighting a modest day for Asia-Pacific economic activity.
GDP is expected to add 1.7 percent on quarter and fall 1.9 percent on year after sinking 3.2 percent on quarter and 2.7 percent on year in the three months prior.
China will provide year-to-date September figures for industrial profits; in August, profits were down 4.4 percent on year.
New Zealand will see September numbers for imports, exports and trade balance. In August, imports were worth NZ$4.76 billion and exports were at NZ$4.41 billion for a trade deficit of NZ$353 million.
Hong Kong will provide September figures for imports, exports and trade balance. In August, imports were down 5.7 percent on year and exports were down an annual 2.3 percent for a trade deficit of 14.6 billion HKD.
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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2166008/
AUD/USD Forecast: Chinese Industrial Profits Flash Global Growth Warning?
Dollar Rises Against Peers
The U.S. dollar firmed up against its peers on Monday as fading optimism about a stimulus deal, and worries about growth amid record spikes in coronavirus cases across the globe boosted the currency's safe-haven appeal.
Data released by the Commerce Department showed new home sales in the U.S. unexpectedly fell in the month of September. The report said new home sales tumbled by 3.5% to an annual rate of 959,000 in September after jumping by 3% to a revised rate of 994,000 in August. The pullback surprised economists, who had expected new home sales to surge up by 2.8%.
The dollar index, which advanced to 93.11, was last seen at 93.06, up 0.32% from previous close.
Against the Euro, the dollar was up nearly 0.5% at $1.1808 after firming up to $1.1803 earlier. German business sentiment weakened in October, survey data from ifo Institute showed today. The business climate index fell to 92.7 in October from revised 93.2 in September.
The reading was below economists' forecast of 93.0. Assessment of current situation improved, while expectations deteriorated in the month.
The Pound Sterling was fetching $1.3023 a unit, about 0.15% less than Friday's close of $1.3042.
The Yen was down marginally at 104.84 a dollar, after recovering from 105.05 a dollar it touched early on in the day. Japan's services producer price inflation accelerated to a six-month high in September, data from Bank of Japan showed on Monday.
The services Producer Price index advanced 1.3% year-on-year in September, following a 1.1% rise in August. This was the fastest increase since March when prices gained 1.4%.
The Aussie was weak with the AUD-USD pair at 0.7123 in late afternoon trades on Monday, compared to its close of 0.7139 last week.
The Swiss franc was weaker at 0.9078 a dollar, compared to previous close of 0.9044, while the Loonie was weak at 1.3213 a unit of greenback, losing ground from 1.3125 a unit on Friday.
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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2166007/
Oil Futures Settle Sharply Lower On Demand Concerns
Crude oil futures fell to their lowest level in three weeks on Monday as rising worries about outlook for energy demand weighed on prices.
According to reports, coronavirus cases saw record spikes in the United States and several parts of Europe over the weekend.
Fading hopes about a U.S. stimulus package and prospect of increased crude supply raised worries about energy demand.
West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures for December ended down $1.29 or about 3.2% at $38.56 a barrel, the lowest close since October 2.
Coronavirus infections in the U.S. hit a record for the second day on Sunday. Cases in France hit a record of over 50,000 over the weekend.
France, Germany, Spain and the U.K. have announced tougher restrictions to halt the rapid spread of Covid-19 infections.
Libya's state-owned National Oil Corp on Friday lifted its force majeure on exports from two key ports, following high-level agreements on a ceasefire in the country.
The company expects that production would reach 1 million barrels per day (bpd) in four weeks, a quicker ramp-up than many analysts had predicted.
OPEC and its allies are also scheduled to increase production by 2 million barrels per day from January, but it remains to be seen whether the group will go ahead and increase output.
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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2166006/
GBP, AUD, USD Volatility to Swell on Cross-Continental Geopolitical Risks?
Treasuries Move Higher Amid Spike In Coronavirus Cases
After ending the previous session nearly unchanged, treasuries moved to the upside during the trading day on Monday.
Bond prices moved higher early in the session and remained firmly positive throughout the day. As a result, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, fell by 4 basis points to 0.801 percent.
Treasuries benefited from concerns about a resurgence in coronavirus cases, with new infections reaching a new record high last Friday.
Data from John Hopkins University showed that new coronavirus cases reached a new high of 83,757 last Friday and topped 83,000 again on Saturday.
In an interview with CNN on Sunday, White House chief of staff Mark Meadows argued that the pandemic could not be controlled and suggested the administration would focus on vaccines and therapeutics.
The spike in new coronavirus cases comes as lawmakers in Washington appear to remain at an impasse over a new stimulus bill.
Negotiations continue, but traders appear pessimistic that an agreement on a new relief package will be reached before next week's elections.
Adding to the appeal of safe havens such as bonds, the Commerce Department released a report showing an unexpected slump in new home sales in the month of September.
The report said new home sales tumbled by 3.5 percent to an annual rate of 959,000 in September after jumping by 3 percent to a revised rate of 994,000 in August. The pullback surprised economists, who had expected new home sales to surge up by 2.8 percent.
"We expect the pace of sales to moderate further in the fourth quarter," said Nancy Vanden Houten, Lead U.S. Economist at Oxford Economics.
She added, "While strong demand and low mortgage rates are supportive of home sales, the resurgence in Covid-19 cases, a recovery that may be shifting into reverse and a weak labor market pose downside risks."
Trading on Tuesday may be impacted by reaction to reports on durable goods orders, home prices and consumer confidence.
The Treasury Department is also scheduled to announce the results of its auction of $54 billion worth of two-year notes.
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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2166005/
Gold Futures Settle Slightly Up
Gold futures closed slightly higher on Monday thanks to the yellow metal's safe-haven appeal following a sell-off in global equity markets amid a surge in coronavirus cases across the world.
Fading optimism about a U.S. stimulus package before the presidential election, weak new home sales data and the dollar's strength limited gold's uptick.
The dollar index advanced to 93.11, and was last seen at 93.04, up by about 0.3% from previous close.
Gold futures ended with a small gain of $0.50 at $1,905.70 an ounce.
Silver futures for December closed down $0.255 or about 1% at $24.420 an ounce, while Copper futures for December shed $0.0395 or 1.3%, settling at $3.0895 per pound.
In economic news, new home sales in the U.S. unexpectedly showed a sharp decrease in the month of September, according to a report released by the Commerce Department.
The report said new home sales tumbled by 3.5% to an annual rate of 959,000 in September after jumping by 3% to a revised rate of 994,000 in August. The pullback surprised economists, who had expected new home sales to surge up by 2.8%.
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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2166004/
Monday, 26 October 2020
Japan Leading Index Rises Less Than Estimated
Japan's leading index rose less than estimated in August, final data from the Cabinet Office showed on Monday.
The leading index, which measures the future economic activity, rose to 88.4 in August from 86.7 in July. In the initial estimate, the reading was 88.8.
The coincident index increased to 79.2 in August versus 79.4 in the initial estimate. In July, the reading was 78.3.
The lagging index fell to 91.4 in August from 92.3 in the prior month. According to the initial estimate, the reading was 89.7.
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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2165971/
Japan Leading Index Rises Less Than Estimated
Japan's leading index rose less than estimated in August, final data from the Cabinet Office showed on Monday.
The leading index, which measures the future economic activity, rose to 88.4 in August from 86.7 in July. In the initial estimate, the reading was 88.8.
The coincident index increased to 79.2 in August versus 79.4 in the initial estimate. In July, the reading was 78.3.
The lagging index fell to 91.4 in August from 92.3 in the prior month. According to the initial estimate, the reading was 89.7.
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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2165972/
DAX 30 Hits a Three-Month Low as SAP Cuts Earnings and Revenue Outlook
Japan Services PPI Inflation At 6-Month High
Japan's services producer price inflation accelerated to a six-month high in September, data from Bank of Japan showed on Monday.
The services Producer Price index advanced 1.3 percent year-on-year in September, following a 1.1 percent rise in August. This was the fastest increase since March when prices gained 1.4 percent.
On a monthly basis, corporate services prices gained 0.1 percent, after staying flat in August. Excluding international transportation, services producer price inflation rose to 1.4 percent from 1.2 percent. Month-on-month, the services PPI edged up 0.1 percent.
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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2165970/
*Finland Sep Retail Sales Volume Up 1.9% On Year
Finland Sep Retail Sales Volume Up 1.9% On Year
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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2165969/
*Finland Sep Producer Prices -0.7% On Month Vs. +0.8% In August
Finland Sep Producer Prices -0.7% On Month Vs. +0.8% In August
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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2165968/
*Finland Sep Producer Prices -5.3% On Year Vs. -4.1% In August
Finland Sep Producer Prices -5.3% On Year Vs. -4.1% In August
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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2165967/
European Economics Preview: Germany Ifo Business Confidence Data Due
Business sentiment survey data from Germany is due on Monday, headlining a light day for the European economic news.
At 2.00 am ET, Statistics Finland releases producer and import prices for September.
At 4.00 am ET, the Turkish Statistical Institute is slated to issue manufacturing sentiment data for October.
In the meantime, Spain's INE issues producer prices and unemployment data. The jobless rate is forecast to rise to 16.7 percent in the third quarter from 15.33 percent in the second quarter.
At 5.00 am ET, Germany's ifo business confidence survey results are due. Economists forecast the business sentiment index to drop to 93.0 in October from 93.4 in the previous month.
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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2165966/
*Japan Aug Lagging Index 91.4 Vs. 92.3 In July
Japan Aug Lagging Index 91.4 Vs. 92.3 In July
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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2165965/
*Singapore Sep Industrial Production +10.1% On Month Vs. +15.5% In August
Singapore Sep Industrial Production +10.1% On Month Vs. +15.5% In August
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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2165964/
*Singapore Sep Industrial Production +24.2% On Year Vs. +15.4% In August
Singapore Sep Industrial Production +24.2% On Year Vs. +15.4% In August
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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2165963/
*Japan Aug Coincident Index 79.2 Vs. 78.3 In July
Japan Aug Coincident Index 79.2 Vs. 78.3 In July
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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2165962/
*Japan Aug Leading Index 88.4 Vs. 86.7 In July
Japan Aug Leading Index 88.4 Vs. 86.7 In July
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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2165961/
*Japan Sep Corporate Services Price Index Up 1.3% Y-o-Y Vs. 1.1% In August
Japan Sep Corporate Services Price Index Up 1.3% Y-o-Y Vs. 1.1% In August
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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2165960/
*Japan Sep Corporate Services Price Index Up 1.3% Y-o-Y Vs. 1.1% In August
Japan Sep Corporate Services Price Index Up 1.3% Y-o-Y Vs. 1.1% In August
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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2165960/