U.S. Dollar Showing Modest Move Back To The Downside

The value of the U.S. dollar has moved modestly lower during trading on Friday, giving back ground after trending over the past few days.

The U.S. dollar index has slipped 0.28 points or 0.3 percent to 103.25, pulling back off the one-month high set on Thursday.

The greenback is trading at 148.10 yen versus the 148.16 yen it fetched at the close of New York trading on Thursday. Against the euro, the dollar is valued at $1.0895 compared to yesterday's $1.0876.

The modest pullback by the dollar comes after the University of Michigan released a report showing a significant improvement in U.S. consumer sentiment as well as a continued decrease in inflation expectations.

The University of Michigan said its consumer sentiment index surged to 78.8 in January after jumping to 69.7 in December. Economists had expected the index to inch up to 70.0.

With the much bigger than expected increase, the consumer sentiment index reached its highest level since hitting 81.2 in July 2021.

The University of Michigan's report also showed continued decreases in both year-ahead and long-run inflation expectations.

Year-ahead inflation expectations slipped to 2.9 percent in January after plunging to 3.1 percent in December, hitting the lowest level since December 2020.

Long-run inflation expectations also edged down to 2.8 percent in January from 2.9 percent in December, falling just below the 2.9-3.1 percent range seen for 26 of the last 30 months.

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Treasuries Recover From Early Weakness To Close Roughly Flat

Treasuries extended their recent downward trend in early trading on Friday but regained ground over the course of the session.

Bond prices climbed well off their early lows, eventually ending the day roughly flat. Subsequently, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, inched up by less than a basis point to 4.146 percent after reaching a higher of 4.198 percent.

The early weakness among treasuries came as a University of Michigan report showing a substantial improvement in U.S. consumer sentiment in January reduced the safe haven appeal of bonds.

The University of Michigan said its consumer sentiment index surged to 78.8 in January after jumping to 69.7 in December. Economists had expected the index to inch up to 70.0.

With the much bigger than expected increase, the consumer sentiment index reached its highest level since hitting 81.2 in July 2021.

Selling pressure waned over the course of the session, however, as the report also showed continued decreases in both year-ahead and long-run inflation expectations.

Year-ahead inflation expectations slipped to 2.9 percent in January after plunging to 3.1 percent in December, hitting the lowest level since December 2020.

Long-run inflation expectations also edged down to 2.8 percent in January from 2.9 percent in December, falling just below the 2.9-3.1 percent range seen for 26 of the last 30 months.

The U.S. economic calendar starts relatively quiet early next week, although reports on personal income and spending, durable goods orders and fourth quarter GDP are likely to attract attention later in the week.

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Japan Inflation Data Due On Friday

Japan will on Friday release December numbers for consumer prices, highlighting a light day for Asia-Pacific economic activity.

In November, overall inflation was down 0.2 percent on month and up 2.8 percent on year, while core CPI rose an annual 2.5 percent.

Japan also will see November results for its tertiary industry activity index, with forecasts suggesting a score of +0.2 following the -1.2 reading in October.

Malaysia will provide December data for imports, exports and trade balance. Imports are expected to rise 3.2 percent on year, up from 1.7 percent in November. Exports are seen lower by an annual 4.8 percent after slipping 5.9 percent in the previous month. The trade surplus is pegged at MYR17.1 billion, up from MYR12.4 billion a month earlier.

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Dollar Consolidates Recent Gains Against Major Counterparts

The U.S. dollar firmed against most of its major counterparts on Thursday amid fading hopes for an early rate cut after data showed a drop in jobless claims in the week ended January 12th. However, the currency pared gains subsequently and even turned slightly weak against some counterparts.

A report from the Labor Department said initial jobless claims fell to 187,000 in the week ended January 13th, a decrease of 16,000 from the previous week's revised level of 203,000. Economists had expected jobless claims to inch up to 207,000 from the 202,000 originally reported for the previous week.

With the unexpected decline, jobless claims dropped to their lowest level since hitting 182,000 in the week ended September 24, 2022.

A report released by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia showed regional manufacturing activity contracted at a slightly slower rate in the month of January.

The Philly Fed said its diffusion index for current general activity rose to a negative 10.6 in January from a revised reading of negative 12.8 in December. Economists had expected the index to rise to a negative 7.0 from the negative 10.5 originally reported for the previous month.

Data from the Commerce Department showed housing starts slumped by 4.3% to an annual rate of 1.460 million in December.

The dollar index, which advanced to 103.63 around late morning, was at 103.47 a little while ago, up slightly from the previous close.

Against the Euro, the dollar was up marginally at 1.0874, and against Pound Sterling, it weakened to 1.2703 after having firmed to 1.2647 following the release of the jobless claims data.

The dollar was flat against the Japanese currency at 148.16 yen. Against the Aussie, the dollar weakened to 0.6570. The Swiss franc was down at 0.8680 a dollar, while the Loonie edged up marginally against the greenback to C$ 1.3492.

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Oil Settles Sharply Higher On Drop In Crude Stocks, Bullish Demand Forecast

Oil prices climbed higher on Thursday, lifted by data showing a drop in U.S. crude inventories in the week ended January 12th, and on higher forecasts for global oil demand.

Recent strong U.S. economic data also point to a likely jump in oil demand. Meanwhile, tensions in the Middle East continue to disrupt global shipping and trade.

Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed crude inventories dropped by 2.5 million barrels last week, as against expectations for a declined of 313,000 barrels.

Gasoline inventories increased by 3.1 million barrels last week, higher than an expected increase of 2.2 million barrels, while distillate stocks were up 2.4 million barrels in the week, more than 2.5 times the expected increase.

West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures for February ended higher by $1.52 at $74.08 a barrel.

Brent crude futures were up $1.20 or 1.53% at $79.08 a barrel a little while ago.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), both said in their reports that global oil demand will see a significant growth this year.

The IEA said in its montly report that oil demand will likely grow by 1.24 million barrels per day in 2024, up 180,000 barrels per day from its earlier projection.

The OPEC said in its report on Wednesday that it expects demand to rise by 2.25 million barrels per day this year, and by 1.85 million barrels per day to 106.21 millon barrels per day in 2025.

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Dollar Climbs Higher Against Major Counterparts On Strong Economic Data

The U.S. dollar gained against its major counterparts on Wednesday amid fading prospects of an interest rate cut in March after data showed a bigger than expected retail sales in the month of December.

Data from the Commerce Department showed retail sales in the U.S. climbed by 0.6% in December after rising by 0.3% in November. Economists had expected retail sales to advance by 0.4%.

A separate report from the Commerce Department showed business inventories slipped by 0.1% in November, matching the dip seen in October as well as economist estimates.

A report released by the Federal Reserve showed industrial production in the U.S. inched up 0.1% in December.

The National Association of Home Builders released a report showing a significant improvement in U.S. homebuilder confidence in the month of January.

The report said the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index jumped to 44 in January from 37 in December. Economists had expected the index to rise to 39.

Data released by the Labor Department showed import prices in the U.S. unexpectedly came in unchanged in the month of December, after declining by a revised 0.5% in November.

The dollar index, which surged to 103.69 earlier in the day, was up marginally at 103.38 a little while ago.

Against the Euro, the dollar firmed to 1.0846 this morning, but pared gains as the day progressed and was at 1.0883, down slightly from the previous close.

Against the Japanese currency, the dollar was up at 148.19 yen, gaining from 147.19 yen. The dollar firmed to 0.6551 against the Aussie. The dollar firmed against Swiss franc, fetching CHF 0.8646 a unit, and traded higher against the Loonie at C$1.3512.

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WTI Crude Futures Settle Higher Ahead Of Inventory Data

Despite weak fourth-quarter GDP data from China, oil futures settled higher on Wednesday, ahead of weekly crude inventory data.

Concerns about the outlook for oil demand, and a firm dollar limited the uptick in oil prices.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for February ended higher by $0.16 at $72.56 a barrel.

Brent crude futures were down $0.26 or 0.33% at $78.03 a barrel a little while ago.

Worries about the outlook for energy demand remain as China reported a 5.2% increase in fourth-quarter GDP, lower than the expected 5.3% rise.

Meanwhile, OPEC reiterated that demand will rise by 2.2 million barrels per day this year, over 2023. OPEC expects oil demand to rise by 1.8 million barrels per day next year.

The OPEC group produced 26.7 million barrels of crude oil per day in December, up from 26.628 million barrels of crude oil per day a month earlier.

Oil prices fell earlier in the day due to disappointing Chinese data and broader risk-off sentiment in the markets as traders pared back rate cuts, according to Craig Erlam, Senior Market Analyst at OANDA, UK & EMEA.

The weekly inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) is due later today. The weely oil report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) will be out Thursday morning.

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Treasuries See Further Downside Following Retail Sales Data

Treasuries moved to the downside during trading on Wednesday, extending the notable decline seen in the previous session.

Bond prices came under pressure in early trading and remained in the red throughout the day. As a result, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, rose by 4.0 basis points to 4.106 percent.

The ten-year yield added to the 11.6 basis points surge seen on Tuesday, reaching its highest closing level over a month.

The continued weakness among treasuries reflected ongoing uncertainty about the outlook for interest rates amid recent concerns the Federal Reserve won't lower rates as early as previously anticipated.

Adding to the worries the Fed will hold off on cutting rates, the Commerce Department released a report this morning showing U.S. retail sales increased by more than expected in the month of December.

The report said retail sales climbed by 0.6 percent in December after rising by 0.3 percent in November. Economists had expected retail sales to advance by 0.4 percent.

Excluding a jump in sales by motor vehicle and parts dealers, retail sales rose by 0.4 percent in December after inching up by 0.2 percent in November. Ex-auto sales were expected to edge up by another 0.2 percent.

"As long as the primary indicators of economic activity like personal spending and the labor market are showing no signs of weakness, the Fed will be comfortable extending its rate pause through the March FOMC decision at least," said FHN Financial Macro Strategist Will Compernolle.

A separate report released by the Federal Reserve showed an unexpected uptick in U.S. industrial production in the month of December.

The Fed said industrial production inched up by 0.1 percent in December, while revised data showed production was unchanged in November.

Economists had expected industrial production to come in unchanged compared to the 0.2 percent increase originally reported for the previous month.

Trading on Thursday may be impacted by reaction to another batch of U.S. economic data, including reports on jobless claims, housing starts and Philadelphia-area manufacturing activity.

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Dollar Rises Against Major Counterparts

The U.S. dollar climbed higher against its major counterparts on Tuesday after comments from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller raised concerns the Fed may not cut interest rates as aggressively as initially expected.

Waller said interest rate cuts are likely this year, but added that the central bank can take its time relaxing monetary policy. He said the process should be "carefully calibrated and not rushed."

Comments from several top bank officials in Europe also seemed to indicate rate cuts are unlikely anytime soon.

In economic news today, a report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index plunged to -43.7 in January, the lowest reading since May 2020.

The dollar index surged to 103.43, gaining more than 1%.

Against the Euro, the dollar firmed to 1.0876 from 1.0953. Against Pound Sterling, the dollar strengthened to 1.2635, gaining from 1.2727.

The dollar moved up sharply against the Japanese currency, fetching 147.19 yen a unit, nearly 1% more than the previous close.

Against the Aussie, the dollar firmed to 0.6584 from 0.6660. The Swiss franc weakened to 0.8617 against the dollar, while the Loonie eased to 1.3495 a U.S. dollar.

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Oil Futures Settle Lower As Stronger Dollar, Warmer Weather Forecast Weigh

Oil futures settled lower on Tuesday, coming off early highs, as a stronger dollar and forecasts that weather in the U.S. will be colder than normal weighed on oil prices.

Meteorologists have reportedly projected weather in the U.S. would switch from colder than normal this week to mostly warmer than normal during the later part of the month.

The dollar surged higher amid fading hopes about early interest rate cuts following some hawkish comments from central bank officials.

West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures ended down $0.28 at $72.40 a barrel.

Brent crude futures were trading slightly down $0.05 at $78.10 a barrel a little while ago.

Oil prices moved higher earlier in the day amid persisting concerns about likely disruptions in supply due to the attacks by the Houthi militants on vessels in the Red Sea. Houthi rebels fired a missile that struck a U.S.-owned ship Monday just off the coast of Yemen in the Gulf of Aden.

Meanwhile, Israel's military has ended its "intensive" phase of operations in northern Gaza and will soon do the same in southern Gaza, the country's defense minister has said.

Weekly inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) and U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) will be out on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively, a day later than usual due to the U.S. market holiday on Monday for Martin Luther King Jr. Day.

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*South Korea Dec Export Price Index Down 2.3% On Year Vs. -3.5% In November

South Korea Dec Export Price Index Down 2.3% On Year Vs. -3.5% In November

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*Australia Dec ANZ-Indeed Job Ads Up 0.1% On Month Vs. -5.1% In November

Australia Dec ANZ-Indeed Job Ads Up 0.1% On Month Vs. -5.1% In November

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*India Dec Passenger Vehicles Sales Up 3.2% Y/Y Vs. 4.3% In November

India Dec Passenger Vehicles Sales Up 3.2% Y/Y Vs. 4.3% In November

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South Korea Trade Data On Tap For Monday

South Korea will on Monday release December figures for imports, exports and trade balance, highlighting a light day for Asia-Pacific economic activity.

In November, imports were down 10.8 percent on year and exports rose an annual 5.1 percent for a trade surplus of $4.48 billion.

Japan will see November numbers for machine tool orders; in the previous month, orders were down 13.6 percent on year.

Indonesia will provide December figures for imports, exports and trade balance. In November, imports rose 3.29 percent on year and exports slumped an annual 8.56 percent to a trade surplus of $2.41 billion.

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Dollar Recovers After Mild Setback

After drifting lower against its major counterparts Friday morning following the release of the producer price inflation data, the U.S. dollar recovered some lost ground and advanced against a few rivals.

Data from the Labor Department showed that the producer price index slipped by 0.1% in December, matching a revised dip in November. Economists had expected producer prices to inch up by 0.1% compared to the unchanged reading originally reported for the previous month.

Meanwhile, the report said the annual rate of producer price growth accelerated to 1% in December from a downwardly revised 0.8% in November.

The annual rate of producer price growth was expected to speed up to 1.3% from the 0.9% originally reported for the previous month.

The dollar index, which dropped to 102.09 around mid morning, recovered to 102.45, up from the previous close of 102.29.

Against the Euro, the dollar firmed to 1.0952 after having drifted down to 1.0989. Against Pound Sterling, the dollar was up slightly at 1.2751, and against the Yen, it dropped to 144.88 yen a unit.

The dollar is flat against the Aussie at 0.6688. Against Swiss franc, the greenback is up marginally, fetching CHF 0.8527 a unit. Against the Loonie, the dollar is higher at C$ 1.3405 after having weakened to C$ 1.3344 earlier in the session.

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Oil Futures Settle Higher Again On Supply Concerns

Oil futures settled notably higher on Friday as an escalation in tensions in the Middle East raised concerns about delay in supplies.

The number of oil tankers being diverted from the Red Sea rose sharply following the air and sea strikes by the U.S. and the U.K. on the areas occupied by the Houthi rebels.

Oil prices also received some support after customs data showed China's annual crude oil imports hit an all-time high in 2023.

West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures for February ended higher by $0.66 or about 0.9% at $72.68 a barrel, coming off a high of $75.25 a barrel.

However, the contract shed about 1.1% in the week.

Brent crude futures settled at $78.29 a barrel, gaining $0.88 or about 1.1%.

"The price jump came as the US and UK launched strikes against Houthi targets in Yemen, raising the risk of broadening the conflict in the region and disrupting oil supplies," says Craig Erlam, Senior Market Analyst at OANDA, UK & EMEA. "Despite today's moves, there's clearly still a view that the risk of a significant disruption is small or prices would be much higher. Still. they will remain sensitive to further developments," he adds.

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Treasuries Finish Volatile Session Moderately Higher

After ending yesterday's trading firmly positive on late-day strength, treasuries fluctuated over the course of the trading session on Friday.

Bond prices bounced back and forth across the unchanged line before eventually closing moderately higher. Subsequently, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, fell by 2.7 basis points to 3.950 percent.

The volatility on the day came as traders reacted to a Labor Department report showing producer prices in the U.S. unexpectedly edged slightly lower in the month of December.

The Labor Department said its producer price index for final demand slipped by 0.1 percent in December, matching a revised dip in November.

Economists had expected producer prices to inch up by 0.1 percent compared to the unchanged reading originally reported for the previous month.

Meanwhile, the report said the annual rate of producer price growth accelerated to 1.0 percent in December from a downwardly revised 0.8 percent in November.

The annual rate of producer price growth was expected to speed up to 1.3 percent from the 0.9 percent originally reported for the previous month.

After yesterday's report showing consumer prices in the U.S. rose by slightly more than expected in the month of December, the whole price data added to recent uncertainty about the outlook for interest rates.

"PPI reports always feel secondary when they're released after the more-important CPI data, but considering the December PPI does not incorporate new supply chain issues from conflicts in the Red Sea, this morning's report feels particularly backward-looking," said FHN Financial Macro Strategist Will Compernolle.

"As a result, the encouraging aspects of December data on producer prices should be largely dismissed for now," he added. "We'll have to wait until January to see how recent supply chain problems pass through to US producer prices."

Following the long holiday weekend, next week's trading may be impacted by reaction to the latest economic news, including reports on retail sales, industrial production, import and export prices, housing starts and consumer sentiment.

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Gold Futures Settle Sharply Higher

Gold prices rose sharply on Friday amid an escalation in geopolitical tensions after the United States and the United Kingdom launched air strikes against military targets in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen.

The rebel militants were using the areas to attack commercial vessels in one of the world's most vital waterways.

The producer price inflation data, and the drop in yields of the US 10-year Treasury Note contributed as well to the surge in bullion prices.

Investors also digested mixed comments from Federal Reserve officials on the possibility of rate cuts this year.

Gold futures for February ended higher by $32.40 at $2,051.60 an ounce.

Silver futures for March ended up $0.624 at $23.329 an ounce, while Copper futures for March settled at $3.7405 per pound, down $0.0360 from the previous close.

"Gold was boosted by the PPI data and the US 10-year yields tumbling well below 4%, while the 2-year hit an 8-month low. The yellow metal has been struggling over the last couple of weeks and the jobs report and CPI data did little to revitalize it. The PPI appears to have done just that though, although it still has some way to go to reach the new highs reached in early December," says Craig Erlam, Senior Market Analyst at OANDA, UK & EMEA.

Data from the Labor Department showed the producer price index for final demand slipped by 0.1% in December, matching a revised dip in November. Economists had expected producer prices to inch up by 0.1% compared to the unchanged reading originally reported for the previous month.

Meanwhile, the report said the annual rate of producer price growth accelerated to 1% in December from a downwardly revised 0.8% in November. The annual rate of producer price growth was expected to speed up to 1.3% from the 0.9% originally reported for the previous month.

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Dollar Rises On Inflation Data, But Retreats Later Against Some Major Rivals

The U.S. dollar, which climbed higher on Thursday after data showed a bigger than expected increase in the nation's consumer price inflation in the month of December, has pared gains and is turning in a mixed performance against its major counterparts.

The U.S. Labor Department said its consumer price index climbed by 0.3% in December after inching up by 0.1% in November. Economists had expected consumer prices to rise by 0.2%.

The report also showed the annual rate of consumer price growth accelerated to 3.4% in December from 3.1% in November. The annual rate of growth was expected to tick up to 3.2%.

Meanwhile, the annual rate of growth by core consumer prices slowed to 3.9% in December from 4% in November. Economists had expected the pace of core price growth to decelerate to 3.8%.

A number of economists have said the data makes the U.S. central bank less likely to cut interest rates in March, with many predicting the central bank will hold off until its May meeting.

A separate report released by the Labor Department showed first-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits unexpectedly edged slightly lower in the week ended January 6th, falling to 202,000, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week's revised level of 203,000. Economists had expected jobless claims to rise to 210,000 from the 202,000 originally reported for the previous week.

The dollar index climbed to 102.76 after the release of the Labor Department's inflation data, but has dropped to 102.31 now, down marginally from the previous close.

Against the Euro, the dollar is flat at 1.0974, after having firmed to 1.0931 earlier. The dollar is weak against Pound Sterling at 1.2763, easing from 1.2690 a unit of the British currency.

Against the Japanese currency, the dollar weakened to 145.32 yen. The dollar had firmed to 146.42 in early New York session after the inflation data.

The dollar is up marginally against the Aussie at 0.6688. Against Swiss franc, the dollar is up, fetching CHF 0.8520 a unit. The greenback is up slightly against the Loonie at C$1.3397.

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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2224207/

Oil Futures Settle Higher On Supply Concerns

Oil futures settled higher on Thursday as prices rebounded on likely disruptions in trade and supplies amid rising tensions in the Middle East.

According to reports, Iran seized a tanker with Iraqi crude marked for delivery to Turkey on Thursday.

"The Navy of Iran's Army has announced the seizure of an American oil tanker in the Gulf of Oman with a judicial order," Iranian state media said, citing a statement from the Army.

The St Nikolas tanker had been the focus of US attention when it was accused of illegally smuggling Iranian crude oil despite sanctions and the U.S. Justice Department levied a fine of $2.4 million on the owner of the ship.

Signs of an escalating conflict in the Middle East after another Israeli strike in Rafah, supported oil prices.

Israel bombarded the southern Gaza Strip overnight, as U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken prepared to travel to Egypt for more talks aimed at containing Israel's war against Hamas.

Recent data showing a sharp increase in U.S. crude inventories limited the uptick in oil prices.

West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures for February ended higher by $0.65 at $72.02 a barrel.

Brent crude futures were up $0.70 or 0.91% at $77.50 a barrel a little while ago.

Data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed crude oil inventories in the U.S. rose by 1.338 million barrels last week, as against forecasts for a decline of about 700,000 barrels.

Gasoline stocks increased 8 million barrels last week to 245 million barrels, while distillate stockpiles rose by 6.5 million barrels last week to 132.4 million barrels, the highest level since September 2021.

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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2224205/