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Tuesday, 28 February 2023
Australian Dollar Pauses After Trend Break. Where to for AUD/USD?
U.S. Dollar Gives Back Ground Following Recent Strength
After trending higher over the past several sessions, the value of the U.S. dollar has given back some ground during trading on Monday.
The U.S. dollar index is falling 0.56 points or 0.5 percent to 104.66 after reaching its highest levels in over two months last Friday.
Currently, the greenback is trading at 136.21 yen versus the 136.48 yen it fetched at the close of New York trading on Friday. Against the euro, the dollar is trading at $1.0608 compared to last Friday's $1.0548.
The dollar's retreat versus the euro partly reflects concerns about the outlook for European interest rates, with some traders pricing in a terminal rate of 3.9 percent next February.
"The king dollar trade might make a comeback, but many investors are expecting the ECB to deliver more rate hikes than all of its major trading partners," said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA.
The pullback by the dollar also came following the release of some mixed U.S. economic data, including a Commerce Department report showing a sharp pullback in new orders for durable goods in the month of January.
The report said durable goods orders plunged by 4.5 percent in January after surging by a downwardly revised 5.1 percent in December.
Economists had expected durable goods orders to tumble by 4.0 percent compared to the 5.6 percent spike that had been reported for the previous month.
The steep drop by durable goods orders came as orders for transportation equipment plummeted by 13.3 percent in January after soaring by 15.8 percent in December.
Excluding orders for transportation equipment, durable goods orders climbed by 0.7 percent in January after falling by 0.4 percent in December. Economists had expected a 0.1 percent uptick.
Meanwhile, the National Association of Realtors released a separate report showing pending home sales in the U.S. spiked by much more than expected in the month of January.
NAR said its pending home sales index soared by 8.1 percent to 82.5 in January after jumping by 1.1 percent to a downwardly revised 76.3 in December.
Economists had expected pending home sales to advance by 1.0 percent compared to the 2.5 percent surge originally reported for the previous month.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2207845/
US Dollar Sees Setback on Weak Durable Goods Orders, But DXY Trend Holds Bullish
Gold Regains Ground Following Recent Weakness
After closing lower for five consecutive sessions, the price of gold moved back to the upside during trading on Monday.
Gold for April delivery climbed $7.80 or 0.9 percent to $1,824.90 an ounce, bouncing off its lowest closing level in two months.
The rebound by the price of gold came as the value of the U.S. dollar gave back ground following recent strength.
After reaching its best intraday levels in over a month last Friday, the U.S. dollar index is falling 0.5 percent on the day.
Buying interest remained somewhat subdued, however, as traders continued to express concerns about the outlook for interest rates.
Recent economic data has led to worries the Federal Reserve will raise rates more than currently anticipated and hold rates at an elevated level for an extended period.
On the U.S. economic front, the Commerce Department released a report showing a sharp pullback in new orders for durable goods in the month of January.
The report said durable goods orders plunged by 4.5 percent in January after surging by a downwardly revised 5.1 percent in December.
Economists had expected durable goods orders to tumble by 4.0 percent compared to the 5.6 percent spike that had been reported for the previous month.
The steep drop by durable goods orders came as orders for transportation equipment plummeted by 13.3 percent in January after soaring by 15.8 percent in December.
Excluding orders for transportation equipment, durable goods orders climbed by 0.7 percent in January after falling by 0.4 percent in December. Economists had expected a 0.1 percent uptick.
Meanwhile, the National Association of Realtors released a separate report showing pending home sales in the U.S. spiked by much more than expected in the month of January.
NAR said its pending home sales index soared by 8.1 percent to 82.5 in January after jumping by 1.1 percent to a downwardly revised 76.3 in December.
Economists had expected pending home sales to advance by 1.0 percent compared to the 2.5 percent surge originally reported for the previous month.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2207842/
Monday, 27 February 2023
*Japan Dec Final Leading Index 97.2 Vs. 97.7 In Nov, Flash 97.2
Japan Dec Final Leading Index 97.2 Vs. 97.7 In Nov, Flash 97.2
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2207785/
GBP Price Forecast: Pound Resumes Where it Left Off, USD Pressing
Australia Company Operating Profits Jump 10.6% In Q4
Australia's company gross operating profits surged a seasonally adjusted 10.6 percent on quarter in the fourth quarter of 2022, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Monday.
That blew away expectations for an increase of 1.5 percent following the upwardly revised 11.5 percent decline in the three months prior (originally -12.5 percent).
Business inventories eased 0.2 percent on quarter, in line with forecasts following the 1.7 percent increase in the previous three months.
Wages and salaries rose 2.6 percent on quarter.
On a yearly basis, operating profits jumped16.0 percent, inventories gained 5.9 percent and wages advanced 11.6 percent.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2207784/
New Zealand Retail Sales Sink 0.6% In Q4
The total volume of retail sales in New Zealand was down a seasonally adjusted 0.6 percent on quarter in the fourth quarter of 2022, Statistics New Zealand said on Monday.
That missed expectations for an increase of 0.2 percent following the 0.4 percent gain in the third quarter.
On a yearly basis, retail sales sank 4.0 percent - again missing forecasts for an increase of 0.5 percent following the 4.9 percent gain in the three months prior.
Core retail sales shed 1.3 percent on quarter versus forecasts for an increase of 0.3 percent after rising 0.5 percent in the previous quarter.
The Total value of seasonally adjusted retail sales in the quarter was NZ$31 billion, up 1.7 percent.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2207782/
*New Zealand Retail Sales Volume -0.6% On Quarter, -4.0% On Year In Q4
New Zealand Retail Sales Volume -0.6% On Quarter, -4.0% On Year In Q4
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2207780/
Sunday, 26 February 2023
Markets Week Ahead: Dow Jones, S&P 500, US Dollar, Gold, USD/CAD, AUD/USD, GDP
Gold Price Fundamental Forecast: XAU/USD Under Pressure From Raging Dollar
Japanese Yen Forecast: High Bar for USD/JPY to Crack Resistance
USD/CAD at Fresh 2023 Highs After Bullish Breakout, Oil Forges Bearish Pattern
Saturday, 25 February 2023
US Dollar Outlook Turns More Bullish as Bond Yields Skyrocket Post PCE Data
Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones, S&P 500 Technical Forecast: Key Support Breaks Hint at Losses
Australian Dollar Outlook: What Happens Down Under, Stays Down Under
Gold Price Outlook: XAU/USD, XAG/USD Defeated by Dollar Strength
Pound Weekly Forecast: Good Data Fails to Reverse GBP Trajectory
Treasuries Give Back Ground Following Hotter-Than-Expected Inflation Data
After moving notably higher over the two previous sessions, treasuries pulled back sharply during trading on Friday.
Bond prices regained ground going into the close of trading but remained firmly negative. Subsequently, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, climbed 7 basis points to 3.949 percent.
The ten-year yield largely offset the two-day pullback but closed just shy of the three-month closing high set on Tuesday.
Treasuries gave back ground following the release of a report from the Commerce Department showing an unexpected acceleration in the annual rate of growth by core consumer prices in the month of January.
The report said annual growth by core consumer prices, which exclude food and energy prices, accelerated to 4.7 percent in January from an upwardly revised 4.6 percent in December.
Economists had expected the annual rate of growth by core consumer prices to slow to 4.3 percent from the 4.4 percent originally reported for the previous month.
Including food and energy prices, consumer price growth also accelerated to 5.4 percent in January from 5.3 percent in December. The rate of growth was expected to slow to 4.9 percent.
The unexpected acceleration in core consumer price growth added to recent concerns about the outlook for interest rates.
Paul Ashworth, Chief North America Economist at Capital Economics, called the data "another sign that the Fed might have to leave its policy rate higher for longer."
Meanwhile, traders largely shrugged off separate reports showing a surge in new home sales and a slightly bigger than previously estimated improvement in consumer sentiment.
Economic data may continue to drive trading next week, with traders likely to keep an eye on reports on durable goods orders, consumer confidence and manufacturing and service sector activity.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2207777/
Friday, 24 February 2023
*Singapore Jan Industrial Output Falls 2.7% On Year, Consensus +2.9%
Singapore Jan Industrial Output Falls 2.7% On Year, Consensus +2.9%
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2207729/
Gold Price Forecast: Bulls Face a Challenge Ahead US PCE Data
*UK Jan Car Production Falls 0.3% On Year: SMMT
UK Jan Car Production Falls 0.3% On Year: SMMT
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2207727/
*Japan Overall Consumer Prices +4.3% On Year In January; Core CPI +4.2% On Year
Japan Overall Consumer Prices +4.3% On Year In January; Core CPI +4.2% On Year
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2207726/
U.S. Dollar Roughly Flat Amid Choppy Trading
The U.S. dollar has shown a lack of direction over the course of trading on Thursday after trending higher over the past few days.
Currently, the U.S. dollar index is down by just 0.01 points or less than a tenth of a percent at 104.58.
The greenback is trading at 134.72 yen versus the 134.84 yen it fetched at the close of New York trading on Wednesday. Against the euro, the dollar is valued at $1.0598 compared to yesterday's $1.0605.
The choppy trading on the day comes as traders express some uncertainty about the outlook for interest rates following yesterday's release of the minutes of the latest Federal Reserve meeting.
The Fed minutes offered few surprised but reiterated that the central bank will continue to raise interest rates in its battle against inflation.
With the Fed warning about the impact of labor market tightness, the Labor Department released a report showing an unexpected dip in first-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits in the week ended February 18th.
The report said initial jobless claims edged down to 192,000, a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week's revised level of 195,000.
The dip surprised economists, who had expected jobless claims to inch up to 200,000 from the 194,000 originally reported for the previous week.
Meanwhile, revised data released by the Commerce Department showed the U.S. economy grew by slightly less than previously estimated in the fourth quarter of 2022.
The report said real gross domestic product jumped by 2.7 percent in the fourth quarter compared to the previously reported 2.9 percent surge. Economists had expected GDP growth to be unrevised.
The Commerce Department said the slower than previously estimated growth primarily reflected a downward revision to consumer spending.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2207724/
Treasuries Recover From Early Weakness, Close Firmly Positive
After coming under pressure early in the session, treasuries showed a notable turnaround over the course of the trading day on Thursday.
Bond prices climbed well off their early lows and firmly into positive territory. Subsequently, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, fell by 4.4 basis points to 3.879 percent after reaching a high of 3.978 percent.
The rebound by treasuries may have reflected bargain hunting, with the turnaround coming after the ten-year yield reached its highest level in over three months.
Traders may also have taken comfort from the perception that the minutes of the latest Federal Reserve weren't more hawkish.
The Fed minutes offered few surprised but reiterated that the central bank will continue to raise interest rates in its battle against inflation.
Meanwhile, bond traders largely shrugged off a Labor Department report showing an unexpected dip in first-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits in the week ended February 18th.
The report said initial jobless claims edged down to 192,000, a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week's revised level of 195,000.
The dip surprised economists, who had expected jobless claims to inch up to 200,000 from the 194,000 originally reported for the previous week.
Trading on Friday may be impacted by reaction to a report on personal income and spending, which includes a reading on inflation said to be preferred by the Federal Reserve.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2207722/
Thursday, 23 February 2023
*Singapore Jan Core Inflation 5.5% Vs. 5.1% In Dec, Consensus 5.6%
Singapore Jan Core Inflation 5.5% Vs. 5.1% In Dec, Consensus 5.6%
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2207677/
AUD Price Forecast: Aussie at Key Inflection Point Post-FOMC
US Dollar Slides After FOMC Boost as Hikes Get Baked in. Is There a New Trend for USD?
*Australia Capital Spending +2.2% On Quarter In Q4
Australia Capital Spending +2.2% On Quarter In Q4
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2207674/
*South Korea Producer Prices +0.4% On Month, +5.1% On Year In January
South Korea Producer Prices +0.4% On Month, +5.1% On Year In January
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2207671/
Treasuries Give Back Ground Following Fed Minutes But Remain Positive
After moving sharply lower over the course of the previous session, treasuries regained some ground during trading on Wednesday.
Bond prices pulled back off their best levels late in the session but remained in positive territory. As a result, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, fell by 3.2 basis points to 3.923 percent.
Treasuries benefited from bargain hunting following recent weakness, which drove the ten-year yield to its highest levels in over three months.
However, buying interest waned late in the day following the release of the minutes of the Federal Reserve's January 31-February 1 monetary policy meeting.
The minutes revealed a "few participants" favored raising rates by 50 basis points compared to the 25 basis point rate hike that was ultimately announced.
"The participants favoring a 50-basis point increase noted that a larger increase would more quickly bring the target range close to the levels they believed would achieve a sufficiently restrictive stance, taking into account their views of the risks to achieving price stability in a timely way," the Fed said.
The Fed members eventually agreed to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.50 to 4.75 percent.
The smaller rate hike came after the central bank raised rates by 75 basis points in November and by 50 basis points in December.
The minutes noted all participants continued to anticipate that ongoing rate increases would be appropriate to achieve the Fed's dual goals of maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run.
The minutes acknowledged that inflationary pressures have moderated but noted price growth remains well above the Fed's 2 percent target, with labor market tightness contributing to continuing upward pressures on wages and prices.
"Overall, the minutes continued to underscore that the FOMC maintains a hawkish posture as its main goal is to significantly lower inflation," said Nationwide Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic.
She added, "And this requires economic growth to be below its potential growth rate, which is estimated to be around 1.8%, for some period of time."
The Fed's next monetary policy meeting is scheduled for March 21-22, with CME Group's FedWatch Tool currently indicating a 79.0 percent chance of another 25 basis point rate hike and a 21.0 percent chance of a 50 basis point rate hike.
Reaction to the Fed minutes may continue to impact trading on Thursday, while a report on weekly jobless claims is also likely to attract attention.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2207668/
Wednesday, 22 February 2023
Australia Construction Work Done Slips 0.4% In Q4
The value of total construction work done in Australia was down a seasonally adjusted 0.4 percent on quarter in the fourth quarter of 2022, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday - coming in at A$55.272 billion.
That missed expectations for an increase of 1.4 percent following the 2.2 percent gain in the three months prior.
On a yearly basis, construction was up 1.0 percent.
Building work was down 1.6 percent on quarter and 1.4 percent on year at A$30.578 billion, while engineering work rose 1.0 percent on quarter and 4.3 percent on year to A$24.693 billion.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2207619/
Euro Steadied the Ship Ahead of CPI as Treasury Yields Leap. Lower EUR/USD?
*Japan Producer Prices -0.3% On Month, +1.6% On Year In January
Japan Producer Prices -0.3% On Month, +1.6% On Year In January
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2207615/
Tuesday, 21 February 2023
Finland Jobless Rate At 8-Month High
Finland's unemployment rate increased further at the start of the year to the highest level in eight months, figures from Statistics Finland showed on Tuesday.
The jobless rate rose to 7.6 percent in January from 6.7 percent in December.? In the same month last year, the unemployment rate was 7.5 percent.
The latest jobless rate was the highest since May 2022, when it was 7.9 percent.
The number of unemployed persons climbed to 211,000 in January from 187,000 in the previous month.
The youth unemployment rate, which is for people aged 15 to 24, edged down to 16.0 percent from 16.1 percent.?
The unemployment rate trend for the 15 to 74 age group was 7.0 percent in January.
The employment rate fell to 62.0 percent in January from 63.2 percent in the previous month.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2207565/
Japan Private Sector Logs Steady Growth In February
Japan's private sector activity registered a steady growth in February as the sharp deterioration in manufacturing activity was offset by the robust improvement in the service sector, a closely watched survey showed on Tuesday.
The flash au Jibun Bank composite output index remained unchanged at 50.7 in February, data published by S&P Global revealed. A score above 50.0 indicates expansion in the sector.
The flash manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index declined to 47.4 from 48.9 in the previous month. The sector posted one of the sharpest falls in two-and-a-half years. There were steeper reductions in output and new orders, with both falling the most since July 2020. Nonetheless, cost and supply pressures showed signs of easing and manufacturers raised their staffing levels.
The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry is slated to issue preliminary industrial output data on February 28.
"We won't be surprised if firms were to revise down their forecast for a 4.1% m/m rise in output for February when the data are released next week," Capital Economics' economist Darren Tay said. "The chief culprit appears to be external demand."
Meanwhile, the flash au Jibun Bank services PMI advanced to 53.6 in February from 52.3 in the prior month.
The service sector has expanded over the past six months as the most recent wave of the Covid-19 pandemic subsided, S&P said based the survey responses from a panel of around 400 service sector companies.
New order growth improved in February, while employment ticked down, suggesting that outstanding business accumulated to the greatest degree since the survey started in September 2007.
At the same time, rates of both input cost and output price inflation quickened from the start of the year.
Official data released earlier this month showed that the economy had expanded 0.2 percent in the fourth quarter, reversing 0.3 percent contraction a quarter ago.
The International Monetary Fund forecast Japan's economic growth to improve to 1.8 percent in 2023, underpinned by continued monetary and fiscal policy support. However, growth is expected to decline to 0.9 percent next year as the effects of past stimulus dissipate.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2207552/
GBP/USD Rallies as UK PMI Points to a Solid Recovery
US Dollar (DXY) Grabs a Small Bid Ahead of Important US Data
*S. Korea Feb Consumer Confidence 90.2 Vs. 90.7 In January
S. Korea Feb Consumer Confidence 90.2 Vs. 90.7 In January
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2207542/
Swedish Krona Holds the High Ground as US Return from Holidays. Lower EUR/SEK?
Australian Dollar Steadies as Trends Get Tested. Where to for AUD/USD?
Monday, 20 February 2023
Dutch Consumers Less Pessimistic In February
The Netherlands' consumer confidence continued to improve marginally in February, as consumers were somewhat less pessimistic about the economy than a month ago, data from the Central Bureau of Statistics showed on Monday.
The consumer confidence index increased to -44 in February from -49 in January. Nonetheless, the indicator in February was well below the 20-year average of -10 points.
Pessimism about the economy and willingness to buy were slightly less negative among consumers.
Among its components, the economic climate index improved to -54 in February from -62 in the previous month.
Households were less negative about the economy in the coming twelve months, and their opinions regarding the economy in the past twelve months were also slightly less negative.
The indicator for willingness to buy rose slightly to -37 in February from -41 in the prior month.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2207502/
*Malaysia Jan Trade Surplus MYR 18.2 Bln Vs. MYR 28.1 Bln In December
Malaysia Jan Trade Surplus MYR 18.2 Bln Vs. MYR 28.1 Bln In December
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2207494/
GBP Price Forecast: Pound Flat Against Peers, Dovish Pressure on BoE Mounting
*China Maintains Five-year Loan Prime Rate At 4.30%
China Maintains Five-year Loan Prime Rate At 4.30%
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2207491/
US Dollar Holds Gains as Markets Weigh Fed Moves. Will Yields Boost USD?
Japanese Yen Dips as Treasury Yields Climb Ahead of Ueda Testimony. Higher USD/JPY?
Sunday, 19 February 2023
Markets Week Ahead: US Dollar, Gold, Dow Jones, FOMC Minutes, PCE, NZD/USD, RBNZ
Gold Price Fundamental Forecast: XAU/USD Tentative Awaiting Fundamental Catalyst
Bitcoin Doesn’t Appear to be Ripe for a Bullish Break Just Yet
Oil Forecast: Crude Prices Sink on Rising Rates & China’s Slow Demand Recovery
Canadian Dollar Outlook: Canada’s CPI Eyed as USD/CAD Challenges Key Resistance
Saturday, 18 February 2023
Dollar Bullish Outlook Will Need to Shift from Rates to Volatility to Continue
Dow Jones, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Technical Outlook: Will Key Support Levels Hold?
Australian Dollar Outlook: Watch the Fed for AUD Direction
Gold Price Forecast: Fed Fears Drive XAU/USD to an Attractive Level
Pound Forecast: UK Retail Data and Inflation Improve, Sterling Does Not
U.S. Dollar Roughly Flat After Seeing Overnight Strength
After seeing considerable strength overnight, the value of the U.S. dollar has shown a notable pullback over the course of trading on Friday.
The U.S. dollar index is currently up just 0.01 points or less than a tenth of a percent at 103.87 after reaching its highest intraday level in over a month.
The greenback is trading at 134.19 yen versus the 133.94 yen it fetched at the close of New York trading on Thursday. Against the euro, the dollar is valued at $1.0694 compared to yesterday's $1.0674.
Overnight, the dollar benefitted from ongoing concerns about the outlook for interest rates following this week's batch of economic data.
Reports on consumer and producer price inflation and retail sales have led to worries the Federal Reserve could raise rates higher than currently anticipated.
Recent comments from Fed officials have added to the concerns, with some suggesting the central bank could raise rates by another 50 basis points next month.
The subsequent pullback by the dollar came as treasury yields turned lower despite the concerns about the outlook for interest rates, with the benchmark ten-year yield pulling back off its highest levels in well over a month.
On the U.S. economic front, the Labor Department released a report showing a modest decrease in U.S. import prices in the month of January.
The Labor Department said import prices dipped by 0.2 percent in January after edging down by a revised 0.1 percent in December.
Economists had expected import prices to slip by 0.2 percent compared to the 0.4 percent increase originally reported for the previous month.
Meanwhile, the report said export prices climbed by 0.8 percent in January after plunging by a revised 3.2 percent in December.
The increase surprised economists, who had expected export prices to edge down by 0.2 percent compared to the 2.6 percent slump originally reported for the previous month.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2207488/
Friday, 17 February 2023
Gold Prices Remain Vulnerable Amid Hawkish Fedspeak and Further Hike Odds
*Singapore Non-Oil Domestic Exports +0.9% On Month, -25.0% On Year In January
Singapore Non-Oil Domestic Exports +0.9% On Month, -25.0% On Year In January
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2207450/
US Dollar Bumped Higher by Hawkish Fed and Blistering PPI. Higher USD?
Dollar Firm Against Major Rivals As PPI Data Triggers Rate Hike Bets
After exhibiting weakness in the Asian session on Thursday, the U.S. dollar climbed higher in early New York session after data showing a bigger than expected increase in U.S. producer prices in the month of January, raised the possibility of the Fed continuing to stay aggressive with its rate hike moves.
The dollar lost its way subsequently, but inched higher later on in the session to score modest gains against some of its major counterparts.
The Labor Department said its producer price index for final demand climbed by 0.7% in January after edging down by a revised 0.2% in December. Economists had expected producer prices to increase by 0.4% compared to the 0.5% drop originally reported for the previous month.
The report also showed the annual rate of producer price growth slowed to 6% in January from 6.5% in December. The year-over-year growth was expected to slow to 5.4%.
Following the consumer price inflation and retail sales data released earlier this week, the report added to worries about the outlook for interest rates.
Traders have recently expressed concerns the Federal Reserve will raise rates higher than currently anticipated in an effort to combat inflation.
A separate Labor Department report showed first-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits unexpectedly edged slightly lower in the week ended February 11th, dropping to 194,000, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week's revised level of 195,000.
Economists had expected jobless claims to inch up to 200,000 from the 196,000 originally reported for the previous week.
The dollar index, which climbed to 104.23 from a low of 103.53, was last seen at 104.03, up 0.1% from the previous close.
Against the Euro, the dollar is trading at 1.0674, up marginally from the previous close of 1.0688.
The dollar has firmed to 1.1987 against Pound Sterling, gaining from 1.2032.
Against the Japanese currency, the dollar is weak, fetching 133.94 yen a unit, as against 134.17 yen on Wednesday.
The dollar is up against the Aussie at 0.6877, firming from 0.6905. Against Swiss franc, the dollar is firm at CHF0.9255, strengthening from CHF0.9237. Against the Loonie, the dollar is up at C$1.3458, firming from C$1.3396.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2207448/
Dollar’s Friday Breakout Potential: EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD and USDJPY
Treasuries See Further Downside Following Inflation Data
Treasuries extended a recent downward trend during trading on Thursday, with inflation concerns continuing to weigh on the bond market.
Bond prices regained ground after coming under pressure in early trading but remained in negative territory. Subsequently, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, rose 3.4 basis points to 8.43 percent.
With the continued increase on the day, the ten-year yield reached its highest closing level in well over a month.
The weakness among treasuries came following the release of a report showing a bigger than expected increase in producer prices.
The Labor Department said its producer price index for final demand climbed by 0.7 percent in January after edging down by a revised 0.2 percent in December.
Economists had expected producer prices to increase by 0.4 percent compared to the 0.5 percent drop originally reported for the previous month.
While the report also showed the annual rate of producer price growth slowed to 6.0 percent in January from 6.5 percent in December, the year-over-year growth was expected to slow to 5.4 percent.
Following the consumer price inflation and retail sales data released earlier this week, the report added to worries about the outlook for interest rates.
Traders have recently expressed concerns the Federal Reserve will raise rates higher than currently anticipated in an effort to combat inflation.
"The larger than expected increase to producer prices is unwelcome news to the Fed and reinforce the view that further policy tightening is needed to tame inflation," said Matthew Martin, U.S. Economist at Oxford Economics.
A separate Labor Department report showed first-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits unexpectedly edged slightly lower in the week ended February 11th.
The report said initial jobless claims slipped to 194,000, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week's revised level of 195,000.
Economists had expected jobless claims to inch up to 200,000 from the 196,000 originally reported for the previous week.
Michael Pearce, Lead US Economist at Oxford Economics, said the current level of jobless claims suggests labor market conditions remain "exceptionally tight."
"That is consistent with most other indicators which suggest that the labor market is still carrying plenty of momentum, leaving the Fed on track to raise rates at its March meeting, and probably at the May meeting too," Pearce added.
A report on U.S. import and export prices may attract attention on Friday along with a reading on leading U.S. economic indicators.
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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2207446/
Thursday, 16 February 2023
Gold Prices Aim for Worst Month Since June 2021 as Retail Traders Boost Long Bets
U.S. Dollar Moves Higher Amid Ongoing Interest Rates Concerns
The value of the U.S. dollar has moved to the upside on Wednesday, with the greenback benefiting from its appeal as a safe haven amid ongoing concerns about the outlook for interest rates.
After reaching its best levels in a month earlier in the day, the U.S. dollar index has given back some ground but remains up 0.61 points or 0.6 percent at 103.84. The U.S. dollar is trading at 134.13 yen compared to the 133.16 yen it fetched at the close of New York trading on Tuesday. Against the euro, the dollar is trading at $1.0690 compared to yesterday's $1.0738.
The buck has benefited from ongoing concerns about the outlook for interest rates following yesterday's inflation data and today's strong retail sales data.
Early in the day, the Commerce Department released a report showing a substantial increase in U.S. retail sales in the month of January.
The report said retail sales spiked by 3.0 percent in January after tumbling by 1.1 percent in December. Economists had expected retail sales to jump by 1.8 percent.
Excluding a surge in sales by motor vehicle and parts dealers, retail sales still shot up by 2.3 percent in January after falling by a revised 0.9 percent in December.
Ex-auto sales were expected to increase by 0.8 percent compared to the 1.1 percent slump originally reported for the previous month.
The sharp increase in retail sales has led to concerns the Federal Reserve will be encouraged to continue aggressively raising interest rates in an effort to combat inflation.
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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2207395/
US Dollar Gains as Markets Digest Rosy Retail Sales After CPI Data, Where to?
Crude Oil Climbs Off Worst Levels But Still Closes Lower
The price of crude oil regained ground after moving sharply lower in early trading on Wednesday but still closed in negative territory.
After falling as low as $77.25 a barrel, the price of crude oil for March delivery ended the day down $0.47 at $78.59 a barrel.
Concerns about the outlook for interest rates contributed to the decrease by oil prices following yesterday's inflation data and today's strong retail sales data.
The steep drop in early trading also came as a report from the Energy Information Administration showed U.S. crude oil inventories surged by much more than expected in the week ended February 10th.
The report said crude oil inventories spiked by 16.3 million barrels last week compared to estimates for an increase of 1.2 million barrels.
Selling pressure waned as the day progressed, however, as the International Energy Agency raised its forecast for oil demand growth in 2023.
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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2207393/
Wednesday, 15 February 2023
*Japan Dec Tertiary Industry Activity Falls 0.4% M-o-M Vs. +0.1% In Nov, Consensus +0.1%
Japan Dec Tertiary Industry Activity Falls 0.4% M-o-M Vs. +0.1% In Nov, Consensus +0.1%
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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2207316/
WTI Oil Price Forecast: Eyeing Potential Bounce Off 50-Day MA
Breaking News: CPI Miss Confirms Cooling UK Inflation, GBP on Offer
Japanese Yen Slips as New BoJ Governor Takes the Helm. Where to for USD/JPY?
*South Korea Imports Prices +1.7% On Year In January; Export Prices -1.3%
South Korea Imports Prices +1.7% On Year In January; Export Prices -1.3%
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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2207313/
Tuesday, 14 February 2023
Crude Oil Price Forecast: Brent Bid Ahead of OPEC Report and US CPI
*Japan Dec Final Industrial Output Rises 0.3% On Month Vs. +0.2% In Nov, Flash -0.1%
Japan Dec Final Industrial Output Rises 0.3% On Month Vs. +0.2% In Nov, Flash -0.1%
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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2207267/
Breaking News: GBP/USD Bounces as UK Unemployment Rate Holds Firm
*Australia Jan NAB Business Conditions 18 Vs. 13 In December
Australia Jan NAB Business Conditions 18 Vs. 13 In December
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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2207261/
Gold Prices Turn to US CPI Report, Will Softer Inflation Rekindle XAU/USD?
Japan GDP Data Due On Tuesday
Japan will on Tuesday release preliminary Q4 numbers for gross domestic product, highlighting a light day for Asia-Pacific economic activity. GDP is expected to expand 0.5 percent on quarter and 2.0 percent on year after sinking 0.2 percent on quarter and 0.8 percent on year.
Japan also will see final December numbers for industrial production; previous, industrial production eased 0.1 percent on month and capacity utilization fell 1.4 percent on month.
Australia will see February results for the consumer sentiment index from Westpac and January's business confidence survey from NAB. In January, the consumer sentiment index jumped 5.0 percent, while the business confidence index survey had a score of +12 in December.
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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2207258/
Monday, 13 February 2023
New Zealand Services Growth At 3-Month High
Slowdown in New Zealand's service sector growth rebounded at the start of the year to the highest level in three months, as sales and stocks continued to increase at stronger rates along with a renewed rise in employment, survey figures from Business NZ showed on Monday.
The performance of the services index, or PSI, rose to 54.5 in January from 52.0 in December. A reading above 50 indicates an expansion in the sector.
Further, the latest reading was above the long-term average of 53.6.
The sub-index for activity rose slightly to 52.1 in January from 51.9 in December, while the new order index also dropped from 57.7 to 54.5, which was the lowest result since April 2022.
Employment levels returned to growth in January, with the corresponding index climbing to 51.9 from 46.9. The sub-index for stocks strengthened to 54.3 from 51.6.
"As encouraging as January's PSI result might look, we are reluctant to read too much into one month's result - especially around the holiday period," BNZ Senior Economist Doug Steel said.
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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2207233/
Ireland Construction Sector Logs Contraction In January
Ireland's construction sector posted another contraction in January albeit at a slower pace, survey results from S&P Global showed on Monday.
The BNP Paribas Real Estate Ireland Construction Total Activity Index rose to 47.7 from 43.2 in December.
However, a reading below 50.0 indicates contraction. The latest decrease was the softest since the current downturn first began last October.
The contraction was broad based across all three categories in January. Civil engineering posted the biggest fall in January as has been the case over the past eleven months. Meanwhile, commercial activity posted the softest fall, while housing activity decreased for the fourth month in a row.
Although firms struggled to secure orders, the decline in orders was the joint-weakest in the current ten-month sequence of decline. Further, survey showed that firms raised their workforce for the first time in three months.
Input price inflation continued to increase across a broad range of products. But the rate of inflation eased for the second consecutive month. At the same time, sub-contractor rates increased at an accelerated pace.
The outlook for activity over the coming 12 months brightened in January with sentiment rising to an 11-month high. Firms expect an improvement in demand conditions with new projects set to start in months ahead.
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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2207232/
GBP/USD Price Forecast: Calm Before the Storm for Pound
*Ireland Jan Construction PMI 47.7 Vs. 43.2 In December
Ireland Jan Construction PMI 47.7 Vs. 43.2 In December
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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2207230/
Singapore GDP Data Due On Monday
Singapore will on Monday release Q4 numbers for gross domestic product, highlighting a light day for Asia-Pacific economic activity.
In the previous three months GDP was up 0.8 percent on quarter and 2.2 percent on year.
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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2207226/
Australian Dollar and the RBA: Dirty Deeds Don’t Come Cheap
Sunday, 12 February 2023
Markets Week Ahead: Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100, US Dollar, AUD/USD, US CPI
US Dollar Forecast: Inflation Data to Set Tone for Bond Yields, Fed Path
Gold Fundamental Forecast: US Yields and USD Guide Gold Ahead of CPI
US Dollar Technical Outlook: Consolidation Within the Downtrend
Saturday, 11 February 2023
Australian Dollar Outlook: The Good Times Keep Rolling
Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Stalks Technical Support Around $1,870.
British Pound (GBP) Fundamental Outlook for the Week Ahead
Dollar Rises Against Major Counterparts On Rate Hike Bets
The U.S. dollar climbed higher against its major rivals on Friday, lifted by expectations the Federal Reserve will continue to hold interest rates higher for more time.
Data showing an improvement in consumer sentiment, and a rebound in near-term inflation expectations supported the dollar.
Data released by the University of Michigan this morning showed U.S. consumer sentiment saw a continued improvement in February. The report showed the consumer sentiment index rose to 66.4 in February from 64.9 in January. Economists had expected the index to inch up to 65.0.
The consumer sentiment index increased for the third straight month, reaching its highest level since hitting 67.2 in January 2022.
Meanwhile, one-year inflation expectations climbed to 4.2% in February from 3.9% in January, with expectations rebounding after falling for three straight months.
Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said it's important for the U.S. central bank to continue to raise rates to ensure it brings inflation back to the 2 percent target.
The dollar index surged 103.68 before easing slightly to 103.59, still up 0.36% from the previous close.
Against the Euro, the dollar firmed to 1.0680 from 1.0743.
The dollar strengthened to 1.2060 against Pound Sterling, gaining from 1.2121.
Against the Japanese currency, the dollar eased marginally to 131.38 yen.
The dollar is trading at 0.6917 against the Aussie, rising 0.3%. Against Swiss franc, the dollar advanced to CHF 0.9238 from CHF 0.9222. Against the Loonie, the dollar firmed to C$ 1.3445 from C$ 1.3359.
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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2207225/
Oil Futures Settle Sharply Higher As Russia Plans To Reduce Output
Crude oil futures settled sharply higher on Friday on continued optimism about higher fuel demand from China, and on Russia's move to reduce oil output next month.
West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures for March ended higher by $1.66 or about 2.1% at $79.72 a barrel.
WTI crude futures gained about 9% in the week.
Brent Crude futures settled at $86.39 a barrel today, gaining $1.89 or about 2.2%. Brent futures gained about 8% in the week.
Russia has announced that it would cut oil output by 500,000 barrels per day in March. Ahead of announcement of the decision, Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak warned that there was risk of lower oil production this year.
Novak said the risk was due to the EU import bans and the price caps on Russian crude and petroleum products.
Novak said the output reduction move "will contribute to the restoration of market relations."
Hopes for strong fuel demand recovery in China, the world's top oil importer, also supported prices and offset fears of a looming recession in the United States.
A report from Baker Hughes said the number of active U.S. rigs drilling for oil rose by 10 to 609 this week. The total rig count, which includes those drilling for natural gas, also climbed by 2 to 761, the report said.
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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2207224/
Ten-Year Yield Reaches Highest Closing Level In Over A Month
Following the sharp pullback seen over the course of the previous session, treasuries saw further downside during trading on Friday.
Bond prices drifted steadily lower as the day progressed, closing firmly in negative territory. As a result, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, climbed 6.1 basis points to 3.744 percent.
The ten-year yield closed higher for the fifth time in six sessions, reaching its highest closing level in over a month.
The continued weakness among treasuries came amid ongoing concerns about the outlook for interest rates ahead of next week's closely watched inflation data.
Traders are likely to keep a close eye on the data for clues about whether the Federal Reserve will need to raise rates higher than currently anticipated in order to bring down prices.
A University of Michigan report showing a continued improvement in consumer sentiment in February as well as a rebound in near-term inflation expectations also weighed on treasuries.
The report showed the consumer sentiment index rose to 66.4 in February from 64.9 in January. Economists had expected the index to inch up to 65.0.
The consumer sentiment index increased for the third straight month, reaching its highest level since hitting 67.2 in January 2022.
Meanwhile, one-year inflation expectations climbed to 4.2 percent in February from 3.9 percent in January, with expectations rebounding after falling for three straight months.
The inflation data is likely to be in the spotlight next week, although traders are also likely to keep an eye on reports on retail sales and industrial production.
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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2207223/
Friday, 10 February 2023
*China Consumer Prices +0.8% On Month, +2.1% On Year In January; Producer Prices -0.8% On Year
China Consumer Prices +0.8% On Month, +2.1% On Year In January; Producer Prices -0.8% On Year
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2207166/
*Japan Producer Prices Flat On Month, +9.5% On Year In January
Japan Producer Prices Flat On Month, +9.5% On Year In January
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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2207164/
Swedish Krona Bolts Higher, Norwegian Krone Follows. Where to for EUR/SEK and EUR/NOK?
*New Zealand Manufacturing PMI 50.8 In January - BusinessNZ
New Zealand Manufacturing PMI 50.8 In January - BusinessNZ
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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2207158/
Treasuries Turn Lower Following Disappointing Thirty-Year Bond Auction
Treasuries showed a strong move to the upside at the start of trading on Thursday but came under pressure over the course of the session.
Bond prices pulled back well off their early highs and into negative territory. Subsequently, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, rose by 3 basis points to 3.683 percent after hitting a low of 3.575 percent.
The downturn by treasuries came following the release of the results of the Treasury Department's auction of $21 billion worth of thirty-year bonds, which attracted below average demand.
The thirty-year bond auction drew a high yield of 3.686 percent and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.25, while the ten previous thirty-year bond auctions had an average bid-to-cover ratio of 2.37.
The bid-to-cover ratio is a measure of demand that indicates the amount of bids for each dollar worth of securities being sold.
Concerns about the outlook for interest rates also continued to weigh on treasuries following hawkish comments by some Federal Reserve officials.
"Arguments are being made for the Fed to raise rates to 6%, with one strategist calling for a move towards 8%," said Edward Moya, senior maker analyst at OANDA. "A month ago, it seemed very likely that the Fed would be done raising rates in March and now that view could be changing."
A preliminary report consumer sentiment may impact trading on Friday, with traders likely to keep an eye on readings on inflation expectations.
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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2207156/
Thursday, 9 February 2023
US Dollar Takes a Breather after Fed Hawks Boosted it. Will USD/JPY Climb Again?
Australia Building Permits Jump 18.5% In December
The total number of building permits issued in Australia was up a seasonally adjusted 18.5 percent on month in in December, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday - coming in at 16,556.
That was in line with expectations following the 8.8 percent drop in November.
Permits for private sector houses fell 2.3 percent to 8,903, while permits for private sector dwellings excluding houses skyrocketed 56.6 percent to 7,091.
On a yearly basis, private sector house permits sank 11.7 percent and private sector permits excluding houses rose 2.9 percent, so overall permits lost 3.8 percent.
By state, the number of dwellings rose in New South Wales (48.4 percent), Victoria (20.7 percent), Queensland (8.3 percent), and Western Australia (6.4 percent). Tasmania (-49.7 percent) and South Australia (-24.6 percent) recorded decreases.
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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2207099/
*Japan M2 Money Stock +2.7% On Year In January; M3 +2.3%
Japan M2 Money Stock +2.7% On Year In January; M3 +2.3%
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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2207096/
S&P 500 Tumbles with the Fed Fuelling the Rate Hike Heat. Will Wall Street Recover?
Oil Futures Settle Higher Again Despite Surge In Inventories
Despite data showing an increase in U.S. crude inventories last week, oil futures settled higher on Wednesday, extending gains to a third straight session, amid hopes of higher demand from China.
West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures for March ended higher by $1.33 or about 1.7% at $78.47 a barrel.
Brent crude futures settled at $85.09 a barrel, up $1.40 or about 1.7%.
Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed crude inventories in the U.S. rose by 2.423 million barrels in the week ended February 1, in line with expectations.
The EIA data also showed gasoline inventories increased 5 million barrels last week, about four times the expected surge. Meanwhile, distillate stockpiles rose by 2.932 million barrels as against expectations for an increase of 0.097 million barrels.
Edward Moya, Senior Market Analyst at OANDA, says oil prices are higher on optimism the global economic outlook won't get crushed over tightening by central banks. He expects the oil market will likely remain balanced over the short-term, but the risks are clearly to the upside.
"oil demand situation appears to be improving and hence oil shouldn't selloff at all," he adds.
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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2207094/
S&P 500 Winds Up Without a Clear Catalyst, Dollar Needs a Stronger Shove
Wednesday, 8 February 2023
Crude Oli Hold the High Ground on US Dollar Weakness. Will WTI go Higher?
Japan Has Y33.4 Billion Current Account Surplus In December
Japan had a current account surplus of 33.4 billion yen in December, the Ministry of Finance said on Wednesday.
That missed expectations for a surplus of 98 billion yen following the 1.804 trillion yen surplus in November.
Exports were up 11.8 percent on year to 8.715 trillion yen, while imports jumped an annual 22.4 percent to 9.941 trillion yen for a trade deficit of 1.225 trillion yen.
The capital account showed a deficit of 27.3 billion yen, while the financial account had a shortfall of 697.5 trillion yen.
For all of 2022, the current account surplus was 11.443 trillion yen, down from 21.591 trillion yen in 2021.
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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2207036/
*South Korea Current Account Surplus $2.68 Billion In December
South Korea Current Account Surplus $2.68 Billion In December
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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2207030/
U.S. Dollar Loses Ground Against Major Rivals After Powell's Comments
The U.S. dollar shed ground against most of its major counterparts on Tuesday, reacting to comments from the Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell at an event at the Economic Club of Washington.
In a Q&A session at the event, Powell told Carlyle Group co-founder David Rubenstein that he expects 2023 to be a year of "significant declines in inflation."
Powell said inflation is beginning to ease, though he expects it to be a long process and cautioned that interest rates could rise more than markets expect if the economic data doesn't cooperate.
"The disinflationary process, the process of getting inflation down, has begun and it's begun in the goods sector, which is about a quarter of our economy," Powell said during an event in Washington, D.C. "But it has a long way to go. These are the very early stages."
The dollar index, which climbed to 103.96 around mid morning, dropped to 103.00 after Powell's comments. Despite a swift recovery, the index weakened again and was last seen at 103.35, down 0.26% from the previous close.
Against the Euro, the dollar firmed to 1.0670 but slipped to 1.0768 after Powell's remarks. After recovering to around 1.070 subsequently, the dollar eased to 1.0731.
The dollar weakened to 1.2050 against Pound Sterling. Against the Japanese currency, the dollar drifted down, fetching 131.06 yen a unit, compared with 132.65 yen on Monday.
Against the Aussie, the dollar weakened to 0.6959 from 0.6883. The Swiss franc firmed to 0.9219 against the dollar, gaining from 0.9284. The loonie settled at 1.3402 a dollar, gaining from around 1.3450.
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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2207028/
Gold Price Hangs Tough as US Dollar Dominates Proceedings. Where to for XAU/USD?
Oil Futures Settle Sharply Higher
Oil prices climbed higher on Tuesday amid expectations of higher energy demand from China, and on concerns about supply following a massive earthquake in Turkey on Monday.
West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures for March ended higher by $3.02 or about 4.1% at $77.14 a barrel, the highest close since January 31.
Brent crude futures were up $2.73 or about 3.35% at 83.72 a barrel a little while ago.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) said in a report that China is likely to account for 50% of currently projected global oil demand growth in 2023.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is also optimistic about Chinese oil demand picking up this year.
The massive earthquake that rocked Turkey on Monday forced a significant export facility in that country to shutdown.
Speaking at the Economic Club of Washington, the Federal Reserve Chief Jerome Powell said inflation is beginning to ease, though he expects it to be a long process and cautioned that interest rates could rise more than markets expect if the economic data doesn't cooperate.
"The disinflationary process, the process of getting inflation down, has begun and it's begun in the goods sector, which is about a quarter of our economy," Powell said during an event in Washington, D.C. "But it has a long way to go. These are the very early stages."
Powell spoke in a question-and-answer session at the Economic Club of Washington, D.C. with Carlyle Group co-founder David Rubenstein.
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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2207027/
Tuesday, 7 February 2023
*Australia Imports +1.0% On Month In December; Exports -1.4%
Australia Imports +1.0% On Month In December; Exports -1.4%
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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2206960/
Australian Dollar Jumps Post RBA Hike of 0.25% as Expected. Where to for AUD/USD?
Australia Interest Rate Decision Due On Tuesday
The Reserve Bank of Australia will wrap up its monetary policy meeting on Tuesday and then announce its decision on interest rates, highlighting a busy day for Asia-Pacific economic activity. The RBA is widely expected to hike its benchmark lending rate by 25 basis points, from 3.10 percent to 3.35 percent.
Australia also will see December figures for imports, exports and trade balance. In November, imports and exports both were down 1.0 percent on month, for a trade surplus of A$13.201 billion.
Japan will see December data for household spending and for its leading economic index. Household spending is tipped to rise 0.3 percent on month and ease 0.2 percent on year after slipping 0.9 percent on month and 1.2 percent on year in November. The leading index is expected to show a score of 97.0, down from 97.4 in November.
Malaysia will provide December data for industrial production with forecasts suggesting an increase of 4.5 percent on year, slowing from 4.8 percent in November.
Taiwan will release January numbers for imports, exports and trade balance. Imports are expected to sink 10.20 percent on year after losing 11.40 percent in December. Exports are called lower by an annual 13.3 percent after dropping 12.1 percent in the previous month. The trade surplus in December was $4.79 billion.
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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2206957/
Dollar Gains Against Major Counterparts On Interest Rate Bets
The U.S. dollar climbed higher against its major counterparts on Monday, amid rising possibility of the Federal Reserve holding interest rates higher for longer than previously expected after data showed jobs growth in the U.S. came in stronger than expected in the month of January.
A surge in U.S. service sector activity in the month of January contributed as well to the greenback's uptick.
Last week, the Labor Department's closely watched monthly jobs report said non-farm payroll employment soared by 517,000 jobs in January after surging by an upwardly revised 260,000 jobs in December.
Economists had expected employment to increase by 185,000 jobs compared to the addition of 223,000 jobs originally reported for the previous month.
The report also said the unemployment rate edged down to 3.4% in January from 3.5% in December. Economists had expected the unemployment rate to inch up to 3.6%.
A report from the Institute for Supply Management showed service sector activity in the U.S. rebounded by much more than expected in the month of January.
The ISM said its services PMI jumped to 55.2 in January from a revised 49.2 in December, with a reading above 50 indicating growth. Economists had expected the index to inch up to 50.4 from the 49.6 originally reported for the previous month.
Traders are likely to keep an eye on remarks by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday.
After last week's interest rate increase, traders are likely to look to Powell's comments for additional clues about the outlook for further rate hikes.
The dollar index climbed 103.77 before easing a bit to 103.63, but still up firmly, gaining about 0.7%.
Against the Euro, the dollar firmed to 1.0726 from 1.0799.
The dollar is stronger against Pound Sterling at 1.2024, gaining from 1.2056.
Against the Japanese currency, the dollar strengthened to 132.63 yen, rising from 131.18 yen.
The dollar is up against Swiss franc, fetching CHF 0.9283 a unit, compared with CHF 0.9260 on Friday.
Against the Loonie, the dollar firmed to C$ 1.3478 before paring some gains. It is currently at C$ 1.3447, gaining more than 0.4%.
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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2206956/
Oil Futures Settle Higher On Demand Hopes
Oil prices climbed higher on Monday amid optimism energy demand from China will see a significant increase.
Reports about Saudi Arabia unexpectedly increasing the prices of oil that will be shipped to Asia contributed significantly to the positive close of the contract.
West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures for March ended higher by $0.72 or about 1% at $74.11 a barrel.
Brent crude futures were up $1.28 or about 1.6% at $81.22 a barrel a little while ago.
A report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) says about half of this year's global oil demand growth will come from China.
Oil prices were also supported by concerns about supply following a major earthquake in Turkey forcing an oil terminal in Ceyhan to shut down.
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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2206955/
Interest Rate Concerns Continue To Weigh On Treasuries
After ending the previous session sharply lower, treasuries showed another significant move to the downside during trading on Monday.
Bond prices came under pressure in early trading and remained firmly negative throughout the day. As a result, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, jumped by 10.2 basis points to 3.634 percent.
The ten-year yield added to the 13.6 basis point spike seen last Friday, reaching the level closing level in a month.
Concerns about the outlook for interest rates continued to weigh on treasuries following last week's stronger than expected jobs data.
Trading activity was somewhat subdued, however, with a lack of major U.S. economic data keeping some traders on the sidelines.
The economic calendar remains relatively light throughout the week, although traders are likely to keep an eye on remarks by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday.
After last week's interest rate increase, traders are likely to look to Powell's comments for additional clues about the outlook for further rate hikes.
Powell's comments in a conversation with David Rubenstein, Chairman of the Economic Club of Washington, D.C., are likely to be focus in Tuesday.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2206954/
Dollar Extends Rally for a Few Key Breaks, S&P 500 Throttles its Descent
Monday, 6 February 2023
Australia Retail Sales Sink 3.9% In December
The value of retail sales in Australia was down a seasonally adjusted 3.9 percent on month in December, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Monday - coming in at A$34.472 billion.
Individually, sales for food rose 0.3 percent on month, while household goods -7.8 percent), clothing (-13.1 percent), department stores (-14.3 percent) and other retailing (-4.6 percent) all were down.
On a yearly basis, retail sales were up 7.5 percent.
For the fourth quarter of 2022, retail sales dipped 0.2 percent to A$96.877 billion. Sales were up 1.8 percent in year in Q4.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2206898/
*Australia Retail Sales -3.9% On Month In December; -0.2% On Quarter In Q4
Australia Retail Sales -3.9% On Month In December; -0.2% On Quarter In Q4
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2206897/
Australian Dollar Tanks as US Dollar Roars Back to Life Ahead of RBA. Lower AUD/USD?
Australia Retail Sales Data Due On Monday
Australia will on Monday release Q4 numbers for retail sales, highlighting a light day for Asia-Pacific economic activity. Sales are expected to slip 0.6 percent on quarter after adding 0.2 percent in the three months prior.
Indonesia will provide Q4 figures for gross domestic product, with forecasts suggesting an increase of 0.33 percent on quarter and 4.84 percent on year - slowing from 1.81 percent on quarter and 5.72 percent on year in the three months prior.
Thailand will see January data for consumer prices, with forecasts suggesting an annual increase of 5.12 percent for overall inflation and 3.10 percent for core CPI.
Finally, the markets in New Zealand (Waitangi Day) and Malaysia (Thaipusam) are closed on Monday and will re-open on Tuesday.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2206896/
Sunday, 5 February 2023
Markets Week Ahead: Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones, US Dollar, Gold, Jerome Powell, RBA
Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Awaits Fedspeak after Absolute Blowout Jobs Report
Dollar Ends Busy Week with Rate Boost, Could Its Safe Haven Appeal Kick In?
Saturday, 4 February 2023
S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 INDEX Technical Outlook: How Much More Upside?
Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC/USD Momentum Turns Wearisome in Muted Range
Australian Dollar Outlook: US Dollar Dominates Ahead of RBA
GBP Fundamental Forecast: BoE Expects the UK to Narrowly Avoid a Recession
Dollar Rises Against Major Counterparts On Strong Jobs Data
The U.S. dollar climbed higher against its major counterparts on Friday, as strong jobs data raised hopes the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates at higher level for many more months.
Data from the Labor Department showed that non-farm payroll employment soared by 517,000 jobs in January after surging by an upwardly revised 260,000 jobs in December.
Economists had expected employment to increase by 185,000 jobs compared to the addition of 223,000 jobs originally reported for the previous month.
The report also said the unemployment rate edged down to 3.4% in January from 3.5% in December. The dip surprised economists, who had expected the unemployment rate to inch up to 3.6%.
A separate report from the Institute for Supply Management showed service sector activity rebounded by much more than expected in the month of January.
The ISM said its services PMI jumped to 55.2 in January from a revised 49.2 in December, with a reading above 50 indicating growth. Economists had expected the index to inch up to 50.4.
The dollar index, which was down at 101.55 in the Asian session, rallied to 103.01 later on in the session, gaining about 1.25%.
Against the Euro, the dollar firmed to 1.0797 from 1.0911.
The dollar is strong against Pound Sterling, gaining nearly 1.5% to 1.2053.
Against the Japanese currency, the dollar has strengthened to 131.20 yen, rising from 128.72 yen.
The dollar is firm at 0.6922 against the Aussie, advancing about 2.2% from Thursday's close of 0.7077.
Against Swiss franc, the dollar has rallied to CHF 0.9260 from CHF 0.9132. The Loonie is weak as well against the dollar, easing to C$ 1.3405 from C$ 1.3319.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2206895/
Gold Futures Settle Sharply Lower As Dollar Rises After Strong Jobs Data
Gold prices tumbled on Friday as the dollar firmed against its major counterparts after data showed stronger than expected in U.S. non-farm payroll employment in the month of January.
The dollar index surged to 102.92, gaining nearly 1.2%.
The strong jobs data raised hopes that interest rates would remain elevated for several months.
Gold futures for April ended lower by $54.20 or about 2.8% at $1,876.60 an ounce. Gold futures shed 2.7% in the week.
Silver futures for March ended down $1.210 at $22.405 an ounce, while Copper futures for March settled at $4.0565 per pound, down $0.0345 from the previous close.
Data from the Labor Department showed that non-farm payroll employment soared by 517,000 jobs in January after surging by an upwardly revised 260,000 jobs in December.
Economists had expected employment to increase by 185,000 jobs compared to the addition of 223,000 jobs originally reported for the previous month.
The report also said the unemployment rate edged down to 3.4% in January from 3.5% in December. The dip surprised economists, who had expected the unemployment rate to inch up to 3.6%.
A report from the Institute for Supply Management showed service sector activity rebounded by much more than expected in the month of January.
The ISM said its services PMI jumped to 55.2 in January from a revised 49.2 in December, with a reading above 50 indicating growth. Economists had expected the index to inch up to 50.4
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2206892/
Friday, 3 February 2023
*Singapore PMI 51.2 In January - S&P Global
Singapore PMI 51.2 In January - S&P Global
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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2206808/
*Japan Services PMI 52.3 In January - Jibun Bank
Japan Services PMI 52.3 In January - Jibun Bank
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2206809/
*Hong Kong PMI 51.2 In January - S&P Global
Hong Kong PMI 51.2 In January - S&P Global
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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2206807/
Dollar Rises Against Major Rivals
After exhibiting weakness in the Asian session on Thursday, the U.S. dollar gained in strength as the day progressed and scored fairly strong gains against its major counterparts.
The Federal Reserve, which raised interest rate by 25 basis points on Wednesday, signaled more hikes in rates to fight inflation. The central bank said although inflation has eased somewhat, it still remains elevated.
In U.S. economic news today, data released by the Labor Department today showed a modest decrease in first-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits in the week ended January 28th.
The report said initial jobless claims edged down to 183,000, a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 186,000. The dip surprised economists, who had expected jobless claims to climb to 200,000.
Jobless claims fell to their lowest level since hitting 181,000 in the week ended April 23, 2022.
A separate report released by the Labor Department showed U.S. labor productivity surged by more than expected in the fourth quarter of 2022.
Traders also reacted to the policy announcements from the Bank of England and the European Central Bank.
The dollar index, which dropped below 101.00 in the Asian session, climbed to 101.91 before paring some gains. The index was last seen at 101.72, up 0.5% from the previous close.
Against the Euro, the dollar firmed to 1.0912 from 1.0991. The ECB raised its key interest rates by 50 basis points, in line with expectations, and signaled that policymakers plan to repeat the move in March, when they will evaluate the future path of policy rates.
Following the latest hike, the main refinancing rate, or refi, is at 3%, the deposit facility rate is at 2.5% and the lending rate is now 3.25%.
Confirming existing market expectations, the bank said policymakers intends to raise interest rates by another 50 basis points at its next monetary policy meeting in March and it will then evaluate the subsequent path of its monetary policy.
The dollar strengthened to 1.2228 against Pound Sterling, gaining from the previous close of 1.2372.
The BoE raised its benchmark rate by a half percentage point to 4% today, citing stronger-than-expected wage growth but softened its stance on future tightening as inflation is set to return to the target in medium term. The bank rate is now the highest since 2008.
Inflation is seen falling to around 4% towards the end of this year and to hit the 2% target sustainably in the medium term.
Against the Japanese currency, the dollar shed some ground and is trading at 128.68 yen, down from 128.95 yen on Wednesday.
The dollar is firm at 0.7078 against the Aussie, gaining from 0.7137.
Against Swiss franc, the dollar is up, fetching CHF 0.9136 a unit, compared with CHF 0.9085 on Wednesday.
The dollar is firm against the Loonie, trading at C$1.3318, gaining from C$1.3293.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2206804/
Treasuries Close Roughly Flat After Seeing Early Strength
Treasuries initially extended yesterday's late-day rally on Thursday but pulled back near the unchanged line over the course of the session.
Bond prices eventually ended the session roughly flat. Subsequently, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, edged down by less than a basis point to 3.396 percent.
In early trading, the ten-year yield fell as low as 3.334 percent, reflecting its lowest intraday level in almost five months.
A positive reaction to the Federal Reserve's interest announcement on Wednesday contributed to the early strength among treasuries, but buying interest waned as the day progressed as traders looked ahead to Friday's monthly jobs report.
Economists currently expected employment to increase by 185,000 jobs in January after jumping by 223,000 jobs in December, while the unemployment rate is expected to inch up to 3.6 percent from 3.5 percent.
A day ahead of the monthly report, the Labor Department released a report unexpectedly showing another modest decrease by first-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits in the week ended January 28th.
The report said initial jobless claims edged down to 183,000, a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 186,000. The dip surprised economists, who had expected jobless claims to climb to 200,000.
Jobless claims declined for the fourth time in five weeks, falling to their lowest level since hitting 181,000 in the week ended April 23, 2022.
A separate report released by the Labor Department showed U.S. labor productivity surged by more than expected in the fourth quarter of 2022.
While the monthly jobs report is likely to be in the spotlight on Friday, traders are also likely to keep an eye on a report on service sector activity.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2206802/
US Dollar Rose as Upbeat Jobless Claims Enticed Traders Before Non-Farm Payrolls
Thursday, 2 February 2023
Australia Building Approvals Surge 18.5% In December
The total number of building permits issued in Australia was up a seasonally adjusted 18.5 percent on month in December, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday - coming in at 16,556.
That blew away expectations for an increase of 1.0 percent following the 9.0 percent contraction in November.
Permits for private sector houses fell 2.3 percent on month to 8,903, while permits for private sector dwellings excluding houses skyrocketed 56.6 percent to 7,091.
On a yearly basis, permits for private sector houses sank 11.7 percent and permits for private sector dwellings excluding houses added 2.9 percent, with overall permits slipping 3.8 percent.
The seasonally adjusted estimate for the value of total building approved rose 3.0 percent in December, following a 0.6 percent fall in November. The value of total residential building rose 6.6 percent, comprising of a 7.2 percent increase in new residential building, and a 2.7 percent rise in alterations and additions.
The seasonally adjusted estimate for the value of non-residential building fell 1.7 percent, following a 2.2 percent increase in November.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2206735/
Euro Hits New High as US Dollar Collapses in Fed Aftermath. Where to for EUR/USD?
*South Korea Overall Inflation +0.8% On Month, +5.2% On Year In January
South Korea Overall Inflation +0.8% On Month, +5.2% On Year In January
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2206730/
Dollar and VIX Slump After Fed Hike, Watch EURUSD and Doubt Trends
Gold Futures Settle Lower Ahead Of Fed Policy
Gold prices moved in a tight range on Wednesday ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision.
Despite the dollar's weakness, gold futures settled slightly lower.
The dollar was quite subdued amid expectations the central bank will slow the pace of interest rate hikes.
The Fed is widely expected to raise interest rate by 25 basis points. The accompany statement and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments are in focus as markets look for clarity with regard to future interest rate hikes.
The dollar index dropped to 101.65 around late morning and was at 101.73 a little while ago, down 0.36% from the previous close.
Gold futures for April ended lower by $2.50 or about 0.1% at $1,942.80 an ounce.
Silver futures for March ended down $0.227 at $23.609 an ounce, while Copper futures for March settled at $4.1110 per pound, down $0.1150 from the previous close.
A report from payroll processor ADP showed private sector job growth slowed by more than expected in the month of January.
ADP said private sector employment climbed by 106,000 jobs in January after surging by an upwardly revised 253,000 jobs in December. Economists had expected private sector employment to increase by 178,000 jobs compared to the addition of 235,000 jobs originally reported for the previous month.
A separate report released by the Institute for Supply Management showed activity in the U.S. manufacturing sector contracted for the third consecutive month in January.
The ISM said its manufacturing PMI dipped to 47.4 in January from 48.4 in December, with a reading below 50 indicating a contraction. Economists had expected the index to edge down to 48.0.
Activity in the U.S. manufacturing sector contracted for the third consecutive month in January, the Institute for Supply Management revealed in a report released on Wednesday.
The ISM said its manufacturing PMI dipped to 47.4 in January from 48.4 in December, with a reading below 50 indicating a contraction. Economists had expected the index to edge down to 48.0.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2206719/