Forex signals news and analysis, fundamental stock market breakdown including geopolitical analysis and in depth discussion. Up to date live news feed from around the world, stock market specific.
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Saturday, 30 September 2023
Crude Oil Q4 Technical Forecast: How High Can it Go?
Dollar Recovers After Early Weakness, Scores Gains Against Some Major Rivals
The U.S. dollar tumbled in the Asian session on Friday, but recovered gradually thereafter and managed to post gains against some of its major counterparts amid optimism about the health of the world's largest economy.
In economic news, a report released by the Commerce Department showed personal income in the U.S. increased in line with economist estimates in the month of August, climbing by 0.4 percent after rising by 0.2 percent in July.
The Commerce Department said personal spending also increased by 0.4 percent in August after jumping by an upwardly revised 0.9 percent in July.
Economists had expected personal spending to rise by 0.4 percent compared to the 0.8 percent advance originally reported for the previous month.
The report also said the annual rate of consumer price growth accelerated to 3.5 percent in August from 3.4 percent in July. The modest acceleration matched economist estimates.
Meanwhile, the annual rate of growth by core consumer prices, which exclude food and energy prices, slowed to 3.9 percent in August from 4.3 percent in July. The slowdown also matched expectations.
A report from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said the Chicago Business Barometer (Chicago PMI) fell to 44.1 in September, from 48.7 in August, contracting for the 13th consecutive month.
The University of Michigan said in its report that the consumer sentiment in the U.S. was revised higher to 68.1 in September from a preliminary 67.7.
The dollar index dropped to 105.66 in the Asian session, but rallied to 106.24 in the New York session. The index was last seen at 106.16, down just marginally from the previous close.
Against the Euro, the dollar recovered to 1.0578 from 1.0620, and against Pound Sterling was flat at 1.2204, firming from 1.2273.
The dollar is up slightly against the Japanese currency, fetching 149.36 yen a unit. Against the Aussie, the dollar recovered to 0.6434 from 0.6502, recording a modest gain.
The dollar gained marginally against Swiss franc at CHF 0.9154, rallying from CHF 0.9091. Against the Loonie, the dollar strengthened to C$1.3576, rising from the previous close of C$1.3488.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2219059/
Oil Futures Pare Early Gains, Settle Notably Lower
Crude oil futures failed to hold early gains and settled notably lower on Friday, with a bit of profit taking, and uncertainty about the outlook for energy demand weighing on prices.
Expectations of supply increases by Russia and Saudi Arabia weighed as well on oil prices.
West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures for November ended lower by $0.92 or about 1% at $90.79 a barrel, coming off the session's high of $93.10 a barrel.
WTI crude futures added 0.8% in the week, and gained about 8.5% in September. In the July-September quarter, the contract surged 26.5%.
Brent crude futures settled at $92.20 a barrel today, down $0.90 or about 1%. Brent crude futures gained 6.8% in the month, and about 23% in the quarter.
Traders now await the meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, including the Russia and Saudi Arabia, scheduled to take place next week. The group is set to review the impact of their production cuts on the market and the way forward.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2219058/
Gold Futures Settle Moderately Lower, Shed Nearly 4% In Week
Gold futures settled lower on Friday with investors choosing the dollar as a safe-haven option amid optimism about the health of the U.S. economy.
The dollar came off 10-month highs, but still managed to find decent support from traders.
The dollar index, which dropped to 105.56 in the Asian session, recovered to 106.24, gaining marginally from its previous close.
Gold futures for December ended lower by $12.50 or about 0.7% at $1,866.10 an ounce. Gold futures shed nearly 4% in the week, and dropped around 3% in the third quarter.
Silver futures for December ended down $0.291 at $22.570 an ounce, while Copper futures for December settled at $3.7375 per pound, gaining $0.0295.
In economic news, a report released by the Commerce Department showed personal income in the U.S. increased in line with economist estimates in the month of August, climbing by 0.4% after rising by 0.2% in July.
The Commerce Department said personal spending also increased by 0.4% in August after jumping by an upwardly revised 0.9% in July. Economists had expected personal spending to rise by 0.4% compared to the 0.8% advance originally reported for the previous month.
The report also said the annual rate of consumer price growth accelerated to 3.5% in August from 3.4% in July. The modest acceleration matched economist estimates.
Meanwhile, the annual rate of growth by core consumer prices, which exclude food and energy prices, slowed to 3.9% in August from 4.3% in July. The slowdown also matched expectations.
A report from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said the Chicago Business Barometer (Chicago PMI) fell to 44.1 in September, from 48.7 in August, contracting for the 13th consecutive month.
The University of Michigan said in its report that the consumer sentiment in the U.S. was revised higher to 68.1 in September from a preliminary 67.7.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2219057/
U.S. Dollar Off Lows Against Majors
The U.S. dollar erased its losses against its major counterparts in the New York session on Friday.
The greenback recovered to 149.39 against the yen, 0.9163 against the franc and 1.0569 against the euro, from its early 4-day lows of 148.52, 0.9091 and 1.0617, respectively.
The greenback rebounded to 0.6446 against the aussie and 0.6002 against the kiwi, up from an early 9-day low of 0.6501 and a 1-1/2-month low of 0.6048, respectively.
The greenback rose to 1.2180 against the pound, reversing from an early 1-week low of 1.2271.
The greenback advanced to a 2-day high of 1.3536 against the loonie, off an early 9-day low of 1.3416.
The currency may challenge resistance around 153.00 against the yen, 0.94 against the franc, 1.04 against the euro, 0.63 against the aussie, 0.59 against the kiwi, 1.20 against the pound and 1.38 against the loonie.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2219056/
Friday, 29 September 2023
*Tokyo Overall Inflation +2.8% On Year In September; Core CPI +2.5%
Tokyo Overall Inflation +2.8% On Year In September; Core CPI +2.5%
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2218937/
*Japan Unemployment Rate 2.7% In August; Jobs-To-Applicant Ratio 1.29
Japan Unemployment Rate 2.7% In August; Jobs-To-Applicant Ratio 1.29
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2218936/
Japan Data On Tap For Friday
Japan is scheduled to release a batch of data on Friday, headlining a busy day for Asia-Pacific economic activity. On tap are August numbers for unemployment, industrial production, retail sales, construction orders and housing starts, as well as September figures for Tokyo inflation and household confidence.
The unemployment rate is expected to ease to 2.6 percent from 2.7 percent in July, with the jobs-to-applicant ratio called steady at 1.29. Industrial production is tipped to slip 0.8 percent on month after sinking 1.8 percent in the previous month. Retail sales are seen higher by an annual 6.6 percent, slowing from 6.9 percent a month earlier.
Housing starts are expected to slump 8.9 percent on year after dropping 6.7 percent in July, while construction orders are seen steady at an annual 8.7 percent.
In August, Tokyo overall inflation was up 2.9 percent on year, while core CPI rose an annual 2.8 percent. The household confidence index is seen steady with a score of 36.2.
Australia will see August data for private sector credit, which is expected to be unchanged at 0.3 percent on month.
Thailand will provide August numbers for current account; in July, the current account deficit was $0.400 billion, with exports down 5.5 percent on year and imports down 12.0 percent on year.
Finally, the markets in South Korea remain closed on Friday for the Chuseok Festival, while Taiwan and China are down for the Mid-Autum Festival.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2218935/
Asia Day Ahead: Gold at March 2023 low, USD/JPY Hovers Below Key 150.00 Level
Oil Futures Fall After Hitting More Than 1-year High, Settle Sharply Lower
Oil futures failed to hold gains and fell sharply on Thursday, due largely on profit taking.
Oil prices rose to more than 1-year high earlier in the day, riding on recent data showing a drop in crude inventories in the U.S.
Data from Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday showed crude inventories in Cushing, Oklahoma dropped to 22 million barrels last week.
West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures for November ended down $1.97 or about 2.1% at $91.71 a barrel, coming off a high of $95.04 a barrel.
Brent crude futures settled lower by $1.26 or about 1.3% at $93.10 a barrel.
"Oil was ripe for a pullback. After coming a few dollars short of the $100 level, energy traders are quickly locking in profits given the turbulence happening in the bond market," says Edward Moya, Senior Market Analyst at OANDA. "Crude demand destruction will clearly happen globally if this bond market selloff extends. Unless a major de-risking moment occurs, the oil market will still remain tight throughout the rest of the year."
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2218933/
Treasuries Show Significant Rebound After Seeing Early Weakness
After extending a recent downward trend early in the session, treasuries showed a significant turnaround over the course of the trading day on Thursday.
Bond prices climbed well off their early lows and into positive territory. Subsequently, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, fell 2.9 basis points to 4.597 percent.
The rebound by treasuries likely reflected another attempt at bargain hunting following the failed efforts seen in the two previous sessions.
The ten-year yield turned lower on the day after reaching a high of 4.688 percent, its highest intraday level since October 2007.
Meanwhile, traders were also looking ahead to remarks by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, which are set to kick off just as the markets close.
Powell is scheduled host a town hall with educators in Washington, D.C. and nationwide via webcast, with the Fed chief set to respond to questions from the in-person audience and virtual participants from across the country.
On the economic front, the Commerce Department released a report this morning showing the pace of U.S. economic growth in the second quarter of 2023 was unrevised from the previous estimate.
The Commerce Department said real gross domestic product increased by 2.1 percent in the second quarter, unrevised from the estimate provided last month. The unrevised reading matched economist estimates.
The unrevised GDP growth in the second quarter still reflects a slight slowdown compared to the 2.2 percent growth in the first quarter.
A separate report released by the Labor Department showed a slight increase in first-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits in the week ended September 23rd.
The Labor Department said initial jobless claims crept up to 204,000, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week's revised level of 202,000.
Economists had expected jobless claims to rise to 215,000 from the 201,000 originally reported for the previous week.
Reaction to Powell's remarks are likely to impact trading on Friday along with a report on personal income and spending that includes readings on inflation said to be preferred by the Fed.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2218932/
Thursday, 28 September 2023
GBP/USD Price Forecast: Susceptible Pound Looks for Reprieve
How Much More Upside in US Dollar? EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/JPY
Asia Day Ahead: Nikkei at Near-Term Support, Brent Crude Eyeing September High
Dollar Gaining Against Major Counterparts
The U.S. dollar gained against most of its major counterparts on Wednesday amid continued bets interest rates will remain higher for longer than previously thought, and the world's largest economy will see significant growth despite tight monetary policy.
The yields on long-term 10-year Treasury note climbed 6.8 basis points to 4.626%, rising from a low of 4.491%.
Recent comments from the likes of JP Morgan Chase (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon and Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari have contributed to expectations the Fed may raise rates higher than previously anticipated.
On the economic front, data released by the Commerce Department showed durable goods orders crept up by 0.2% in August after plunging by a revised 5.6% in July.
The uptick surprised economists, who had expected durable goods orders to fall by 0.5% compared to the 5.2% nosedive that had been reported for the previous month.
Excluding a modest decrease in orders for transportation equipment, durable goods orders rose by 0.4% in August after inching up by a downwardly revised 0.1% in July. Economists had expected ex-transportation orders to edge up by 0.1% compared to the 0.5% increase originally reported for the previous month.
The dollar index surged to 106.84 earlier this afternoon, and despite easing to 106.70, remains about 0.45% up from the previous close.
Against the Euro, the dollar is up at $1.0502, gaining nearly 0.7%. The dollar is up against Pound Sterling at $1.2135, up from $.12159.
The dollar has firmed to 149.65 yen against the Japanese currency, up from 149.07 yen a dollar. The dollar has strengthened to 0.6348 against the Aussie.
The dollar is notably higher against Swiss franc at CHF 0.9213. Against the Loonie, the dollar is down marginally, fetching C$1.3505 a unit, compared with C$1.3518 Tuesday evening.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2218857/
Oil Futures Climb 3.6%, Settle At Near 13-month High
Crude oil prices rose sharply on Wednesday after data showing an unexpected drop in U.S. crude stockpiles in the week ended September 22 added to concerns about tightening supplies amid production cuts by OPEC and allies.
West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures for November climbed $3.29 or about 3.6% to settle at $93.68 a barrel, the highest settlement since August 29, 2022.
Brent crude futures were up $1.98 or about 2.1% at $94.41 a barrel a little while ago.
Data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) this morning showed crude inventories in the U.S. fell by 2.169 million barrels during the week ended September 22, as against expectations for a 0.9 million barrel increase.
Gasoline stockpiles rose by 1.027 million barrels last week, as against forecasts for a drop of 0.5 million barrels. Meanwhile, distillate stockpiles increased by 0.398 million barrels versus the expected draw of 1 million barrels.
The data also said Cushing inventories fell to the lowest level since July 2022.
The American Petroleum Institute reported on Tuesday that U.S. crude oil stockpiles rose by 1.586M barrels during the week ended Sept. 22, against expectations for a small drop.
"Brent crude is now just over a few dollars away from the $100 price level, which could see further momentum buying if global leaders don't do anything to try to jawbone prices down," says Edward Moya, Senior Market Analyst at OANDA. "The Biden administration will undoubtedly want lower energy prices given we are just over a year from the presidential election, but tapping the low levels from the SPR will only provide temporary relief."
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2218855/
Treasuries Turn Lower Once Again Amid Ongoing Interest Rate Worries
Mirroring the performance in the previous session, treasuries saw early strength on Wednesday but pulled back sharply over the course of the session.
Bond prices showed a substantial downturn as the day progressed, slumping firmly into negative territory. As a result, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, climbed 6.8 basis points at 4.626 percent after hitting a low of 4.491 percent.
The ten-year yield added to the uptick seen on Tuesday, once again reaching its highest closing level since October 2007.
Bargain hunting contributed to the early strength in the bond market, but buying interest waned shortly after the start of trading, as concerns about the outlook for interest rates continue to hang over the markets.
Recent comments from the likes of JPMorgan Chase (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon and Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari have led to worries the Federal Reserve may raise rates higher than previously anticipated.
Possibly adding to the interest rate concerns, the Commerce Department released a report unexpectedly showing a modest rebound in new orders for U.S. manufactured durable goods in the month of August.
The Commerce Department said durable goods orders crept up by 0.2 percent in August after plunging by a revised 5.6 percent in July.
The uptick surprised economists, who had expected durable goods orders to fall by 0.5 percent compared to the 5.2 percent nosedive that had been reported for the previous month.
Excluding a modest decrease in orders for transportation equipment, durable goods orders rose by 0.4 percent in August after inching up by a downwardly revised 0.1 percent in July.
Economists had expected ex-transportation orders to edge up by 0.1 percent compared to the 0.5 percent increase originally reported for the previous month.
"Signs of economic resilience will move the needle in possibly making the Fed deliver more rate hikes," said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA.
While reports on weekly jobless claims and pending home sales may attract attention on Thursday, traders may be reluctant to make significant moves ahead of remarks by Fed Chair Jerome Powell due after the close of trading.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2218856/
Wednesday, 27 September 2023
FTSE 100, DAX and S&P 500 Try to Stabilize After Rout
S&P 500 & Dow Fall Below Key Support; Potential H&S in Nasdaq
Asia Day Ahead: AUD/USD Stuck in a Range, Silver Eyes retest of Trendline Support
Australian Dollar Holds Gains After CPI Accelerates; What’s Next for AUD/USD, AUD/NZD?
U.S. Dollar Inches Up To Highest Levels In Ten Months
The value of the U.S. dollar has moved modestly higher during trading on Tuesday, extending the upward trend seen in recent sessions.
Currently, the U.S. dollar index is up 0.18 points or 0.2 percent at 106.18, rising to its best levels in ten months.
The greenback is trading at 149.04 yen compared to the 148.88 yen it fetched at the close of New York trading on Monday. Against the euro, the dollar is valued at $1.0574 compared to yesterday's $1.0593.
The dollar is benefitting from its appeal as a safe haven amid ongoing concerns about the outlook for U.S. interest rates, with JPMorgan Chase (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon warning in an interview with The Times of India that rates could go as high as 7 percent.
"I am not sure if the world is prepared for 7%," Dimon said. "I ask people in business, 'Are you prepared for something like 7%?' The worst case is 7% with stagflation."
"If they are going to have lower volumes and higher rates, there will be stress in the system," he added. "We urge our clients to be prepared for that kind of stress."
Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari also wrote in an essay posted on Tuesday that there is a 40 percent chance the Federal Reserve will have to push rates "meaningfully higher" to combat stubborn services inflation.
Last week, the Fed left interest rates unchanged as widely expected but forecast another rate hike before the end of the year as well as keeping rates at elevated levels for longer than previously anticipated.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2218787/
Gold Falls To Lowest Levels In Over A Month
The price of gold moved to the downside over the course of the trading day on Tuesday, extending the downward trend seen over the past few sessions.
After falling $9 or 0.5 percent to $1,936.60 an ounce on Monday, gold for December delivery slid $16.80 or 0.9 percent to $1,919.80 an ounce.
With the continued decrease on the day, the price of the precious metal fell to its lowest closing level in over a month.
Continued strength in the value of the U.S. dollar weigh on gold prices, with the U.S. dollar index edging up by 0.2 percent to a ten-month high.
The uptick by the dollar and the subsequent drop by gold came amid ongoing concerns about the outlook for interest rates.
JPMorgan Chase (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon warned in an interview with The Times of India that rates could go as high as 7 percent.
"I am not sure if the world is prepared for 7%," Dimon said. "I ask people in business, 'Are you prepared for something like 7%?' The worst case is 7% with stagflation."
"If they are going to have lower volumes and higher rates, there will be stress in the system," he added. "We urge our clients to be prepared for that kind of stress."
Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari also wrote in an essay posted on Tuesday that there is a 40 percent chance the Federal Reserve will have to push rates "meaningfully higher" to combat stubborn services inflation.
Last week, the Fed left interest rates unchanged as widely expected but forecast another rate hike before the end of the year as well as keeping rates at elevated levels for longer than previously anticipated
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2218784/
Tuesday, 26 September 2023
*South Korea Sep Consumer Confidence 99.7 Vs. 103.1 In August
South Korea Sep Consumer Confidence 99.7 Vs. 103.1 In August
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2218739/
Market Breadth has Weakened: Implications for S&P 500 & Nasdaq
Bitcoin & Ethereum Rally Fizzles: What’s Next for BTC/USD & ETH/USD?
Asia Day Ahead: US Dollar at Fresh 10-month High, HSI Struggles
Dollar Climbs Higher On Interest Rate Bets
The U.S. dollar advanced against its major counterparts on Monday amid bets the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer, and on concerns about the property market in China.
The dollar gained on safe-haven demand as China Evergrande Group, the world's most indebted property developer, said it was unable to issue new debt due to an ongoing investigation into its main domestic subsidiary, Hengda Real Estate Group Co.
Traders looked ahead to key U.S. inflation data due on Friday to help shape the Fed's policy outlook.
CME Group's Fed Watch Tool is currently indicating a 78.9% chance the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged at its next meeting in late October/early November and just a 21.1% chance of a quarter point rate hike.
Meanwhile, the Fed Watch Tool is indicating a 61% chance the Fed will leave rates unchanged at its December meeting and a 34.2% chance the central bank will raise rates by a quarter point.
The dollar index surged to 106.10 around mid morning, and despite easing to 105.95, remains well above the flat line, gaining about 0.35%.
Against the Euro, the dollar has firmed to 1.0594 from 1.0646. The dollar is up against Pound Sterling at 1.2212, gaining from 1.2241.
Against the Japanese currency, the dollar is stronger at 148.83 yen, rising from 148.25 yen. The dollar is up against the Aussie at 0.6425. Against Swiss franc, the dollar has strengthened to CHF 0.9122, while against the Loonie, it is weak at C$1.3456.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2218738/
Gold Futures Settle Lower As Dollar Rises Ahead Of Key Economic Data
Gold prices drifted lower on Monday as the dollar climbed up ahead of some crucial economic data, including inflation reports from the U.S., Europe and China, among others.
The dollar hit a multi-month high against major counterparts following hawkish comments on interest rates from the Federal Reserve and other central banks.
The dollar index surged to 106.10 and despite paring some gains subsequently, remains well up at 105.95.
Gold futures for December ended down $9.00 at $1,936.60 an ounce.
Silver futures for December ended lower by $0.459 at $23.385 an ounce, while Copper futures for December settled at $3.6700 per pound, down $0.0260 from the previous close.
With oil prices surging towards $100 a barrel mark, there are concerns the Fed will have to keep interest rates higher for longer than previous anticipated to fight inflation.
Markets await the Fed's preferred inflation readings, a speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Q2 GDP final estimate and other reports on new home sales, durable goods orders and consumer confidence this week for direction.
Markets also brace for a U.S. government shutdown, with the White House warning of severe economic consequences if Congress fails to pass a funding bill by an October 1 deadline.
Meanwhile, concerns about China's property market have resurfaced after China Evergrande Group, the world's most indebted property developer, said it was unable to issue new debt due to an ongoing investigation into its main domestic subsidiary, Hengda Real Estate Group Co.
Edward Moya, Senior Market Analyst at OANDA says gold has formed a bottom. "The end of tightening is very close for the Fed and higher-for-longer has been priced in by most gold traders. Gold appears to have a major floor at $1900, the $1920 is short-term support. Once the US outlook deteriorates, safe-haven flows appear poised to head gold's way," he adds.
Moya adds further: "A peak in the dollar is not here yet, but gold's downside should be limited given Europe's outlook should either stabilize which will help end the dollar's reign or surging oil will kill the outlook and trigger a wave of safe-haven flows."
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2218735/
Monday, 25 September 2023
*Singapore Aug Core Inflation 3.4% Vs. 3.8% In Jul, Consensus 3.50%
Singapore Aug Core Inflation 3.4% Vs. 3.8% In Jul, Consensus 3.50%
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2218689/
*Singapore Aug Inflation 4.0% Vs. 4.1% In Jul, Consensus 4.0%
Singapore Aug Inflation 4.0% Vs. 4.1% In Jul, Consensus 4.0%
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2218688/
GBP/USD, EUR/USD remain bearish, USD/JPY bullish as US dollar rises for tenth consecutive week
*Indonesia Aug M2 Money Supply Up 5.9% Y-o-Y Vs. 6.4% In July
Indonesia Aug M2 Money Supply Up 5.9% Y-o-Y Vs. 6.4% In July
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2218687/
Japanese Yen After BOJ: What Has Changed in USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, AUD/JPY?
Asia Day Ahead: Risk mood remains cautious, USD/SGD at nine-month high
Sunday, 24 September 2023
Markets Week Ahead: US Dollar, British Pound, Euro, Key Inflation Gauge, German CPI
Saturday, 23 September 2023
Japanese Yen Forecast: BoJ's Dovishness Puts USD/JPY Channel Breakout in Play
Euro Forecast: EUR/USD on Breakdown Watch, EUR/GBP Stuck in No Man’s Land For Now
Dollar Firms Against Major Counterparts On Safe-haven Bets
The U.S. dollar firmed against its major counterparts on Friday as weak PMI data from across the globe pushed up the demand for the safe-haven currency.
Recent hawkish statement by the Federal Reserve contributed as well for the greenback's uptick.
After climbing higher to 105.78 in the European session, the dollar index briefly fell below the flat line around late morning, but recovered subsequently to 105.62, gaining about 0.25%.
Against the Euro, the dollar is up at 1.0645. Despite a moderate improvement, the euro area private sector remained in the contraction territory in September, adding to fears of a recession in the second half of the year. The flash results of the purchasing managers' survey by S&P Global showed that the HCOB flash composite output index rose to 47.1 in September from 46.7 a month ago, while it was expected to fall to 46.5.
The dollar is trading at 1.2237 against Pound Sterling, gaining more than 0.5%. The UK private sector activity contracted at the fastest pace in more than two-and-a-half years in September amid steep declines in both manufacturing and services activity, the purchasing managers' survey results from S&P Global and the Chartered Institute of Procurement & Supply showed Friday.
The flash composite output index dropped to 46.8 from 48.6 in the previous month.
Against the Japanese currency, the dollar is up, fetching 148.40 yen a unit, nearly 0.6% more than the previous close. The dollar is down against the Aussie at 0.6441. Against Swiss franc, the greenback is up at CHF 0.9072, and against the Loonie, it is down slightly at C$ 1.3481.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2218686/
Gold Futures Settle Modestly Higher
Gold futures settled modestly higher on Friday even as the dollar stayed firm amid bets the Federal Reserve will keep rates higher for longer to combat inflation.
Gold attracted safe-haven buying amid concerns higher borrowing costs might result in global economic slowdown.
The dollar index, which climbed to 105.78 in the European session, briefly fell below the flat line around late morning, but recovered subsequently to 105.58, gaining more than 0.5%.
Gold futures for December ended higher by $6.00 at $1,945.60 an ounce.
Silver futures for December ended up $0.157 at $23.844 an ounce, while Copper futures for December settled flat at $3.6960 per pound.
The Fed kept interest rates unchanged earlier this week, but forecast another rate hike before the end of the year as well as keeping rates at elevated levels for longer than previously anticipated.
Other global central banks are also expected to keep interest rates higher for longer to cool price growth.
"Higher-for-longer remains kryptonite for gold but weakening global growth prospects is starting to attract some safe-haven flows towards bullion," says Edward Moya, Senior Market Analyst at OANDA.
"Gold has shown that the $1900 level was a major line in the sand and now it appears to be poised to consolidate around the $1950 level. For gold to move back above the $2000 level, investors will need to see major dollar weakness which will be driven by evidence that the labor market is breaking," Moya adds.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2218683/
Friday, 22 September 2023
Yen Falls Ahead Of BoJ Rate Decision
At 11:00 pm ET in the early Asian session on Friday, the Bank of Japan is set to announce its monetary policy decision.
Ahead of the BOJ rate decision, the yen fell against its major rivals.
As of 10:55 am pm ET, the yen was trading at 157.69 against the euro, 181.87 against the pound, 148.07 against the U.S. dollar and 163.70 against the Swiss franc.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2218612/
Japanese Yen Tumbles as BOJ Maintains Status Quo: USD/JPY Eyes 150
Asia Day Ahead: Risk-off Sentiment in place, BoJ Meeting on the Radar
Ten-Year Yield Spikes To Highest Level Since October 2007
While treasuries managed to end the previous session modestly higher following the Federal Reserve's monetary policy announcement, substantial selling pressure emerged during trading on Thursday.
Bond prices moved sharply lower in early trading and remained firmly negative throughout the session. Subsequently, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, spiked 13.1 basis points 4.480 percent.
The ten-year yield more than offset the slight drop seen during yesterday's trading, reaching its highest closing level since October 2007.
The sell-off by treasuries came as the Fed left interest rates unchanged as widely expected on Wednesday but forecast another rate hike before the end of the year as well as keeping rates at elevated levels for longer than previously anticipated.
"12 of 19 governors at this point currently favor one more interest rate increase in the next two meetings before the end of the year," said Alex McGrath, Chief Investment officer for NorthEnd Private Wealth. "Additionally the dot plot for rate expectations in 2024 was higher than it had been in previous meetings signaling a hawkish outlook for rates next year, cementing their higher for longer stance."
He added, "Heading into the fourth quarter with rate expectations remaining elevated, we are more than likely in for a choppy end of the year as the markets digest an outlook less favorable for the growth assets that have driven the market for 2023."
Adding to the concerns about interest rates, the Labor Department released a report this morning showing first-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell to a seven-month low in the week ended September 16th.
The report said initial jobless claims dipped to 201,000, a decrease of 20,000 from the previous week's revised level of 221,000.
Economists had expected jobless claims to inch up to 225,000 from the 220,000 originally reported for the previous week.
With the unexpected decrease, jobless claims fell to their lowest level since hitting 199,000 in the week ended January 28th.
However, Nancy Vanden Houten, Lead .S. Economist at Oxford Economics, said, "The claims data don't change our call for the Fed to keep rates steady before embarking on a very gradual pace of rate cuts in mid-2024."
"A sharp rise in unemployment and claims isn't a prerequisite for the Fed to stop raising rates," she added. "Fed Chair Powell yesterday noted that the labor market is coming into better balance without a rise in the unemployment rate."
Following the slew of data released this morning, the U.S. economic calendar is relatively quiet on Friday, potentially leading to choppy trading.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2218610/
Gold Futures Settle Notably Lower
Gold prices fell on Thursday as the dollar extended recent uptick, and bond yields edged higher after the Federal Reserve signaled another interest rate hike by the end of this year.
The dollar index advanced to 105.74 in early New York session, but pared most of its gains subsequently and was hovering around 105.30 a little while ago.
Gold futures for December ended down $27.50 or about 1.4% at $1,939.60 an ounce.
Silver futures for December ended lower by $0.149 at $23.687 an ounce, while Copper futures for December settled lower by $0.0800 at $3.6960 per pound.
"Gold's kryptonite remains a hawkish Fed that is fueling a bond market selloff. The end of tightening is here for Europe, but higher-for-longer means investors will continue increasing their fixed income exposure," says Edward Moya, Senior Market Analyst at OANDA.
"Gold will have one last round of weakness here as US growth exceptionalism will keep yields trending higher. The peak in Treasury yields is almost here, but until recession risks become the base case for the US, gold might struggle to stabilize," he adds.
In U.S. economic ndews, data released by the Labor Department showed initial jobless claims dipped to 201,000 in the week ended September 16th, a decrease of 20,000 from the previous week's revised level of 221,000.
Economists had expected jobless claims to inch up to 225,000 from the 220,000 originally reported for the previous week.
The Bank of England left its policy rate unchanged at 5.25% with the bank's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voting 5-4 in favor of holding the policy rate steady.
The BoE decided to hold rates steady for the first time since November 2021 as inflation eased to an 18-month low, while the economy is moving closer to a mild recession. Markets had widely expected a quarter-point hike. At 5.25%, the interest rate is the highest since early 2008.
The Swiss National Bank held rates unchanged earlier today, but warned that more increases may still be needed.
Sweden's Riksbank has raised borrowing costs by a quarter point and said it might need to do more to bring inflation back to its 2 percent target.
Norway's central bank raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points and indicated another rate hike in December to curb inflation.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2218609/
Thursday, 21 September 2023
Asia Week Ahead: Fed’s Hawkish Takeaway Pushes Up USD, Weighs on AUD/USD, Gold
US Indices Risk Support Break After Hawkish Fed: S&P 500, Nasdaq Price Action
Dollar Pares Losses, Climb Higher After Fed Policy Announcement
After languishing in negative territory till around mid afternoon, the U.S. dollar recovered well on Wednesday as the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged but projected a hike by the end of the year.
The Fed said it decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5.25 to 5.5% after raising rates by 25 basis points in July. However, the central bank's latest projections suggest Fed officials expect one more rate hike this year, forecasting a median rate of 5.6% by the end of 2023.
The latest projections also indicate officials expect rates to remain higher for longer than previously anticipated. The central bank has raised interest rate forecast to 5.1% at the end of the year from 4.6% in June, and the outlook for rates at the end of 2025 to 3.9% from 3.4%.
The Fed's statement said economic activity has been expanding at a "solid pace" compared to the "moderate pace" described in July.
The Fed's next monetary policy meeting is scheduled for October 31-November 1, with CME Group's FedWatch Tool currently indicating a 73.6% chance rates will remain unchanged and a 26.4% chance of a quarter point rate increase.
The focus has now shifted to policy meetings of the Bank of England, Bank of Japan and Swiss National Bank.
The dollar index, which fell to 104.67 by early afternoon, climbed to 105.44 after the central bank's policy announcement. The index was last seen at 105.35, up 0.14% from the previous close.
Against the Euro, the dollar firmed to 1.0660 from 1.0739. Against Pound Sterling, the dollar is up at 1.2343, gaining from 1.2422.
The dollar is up against the Japanese currency, fetching 148.28 yen a dollar. Against the Aussie, the dollar is up marginally at 0.6447, and against Swiss franc, it is stronger by about 0.13% at CHF 0.8988.
The dollar climbed against the Loonie as well, firming to C$ 1.3480, before easing to $ 1.3465.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2218507/
Treasuries Fluctuate Following Fed Announcement But Close Modestly Higher
After an early move to the upside on Wednesday, treasuries saw considerable volatility following the Federal Reserve's monetary policy announcement but managed to remain in positive territory.
Despite pulling back well off the best levels, bond prices finished the day modestly higher. Subsequently, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, slipped 1.6 basis points to 4.349 percent.
The early strength among treasuries partly reflected bargain hunting after the ten-year yield reached its highest levels in over fifteen years on Tuesday.
Buying interest waned after the Fed announced its widely expected decision to leave interest rates unchanged but raised its forecast for rates at the end of next year.
The Fed said it decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5.25 to 5.50 percent after raising rates by 25 basis points in July.
However, the central bank's latest projections suggest Fed officials expect one more rate hike this year, forecasting a median rate of 5.6 percent by the end of 2023.
While the forecast for the end of the year was unchanged from June, the latest projections also indicate officials expect rates to remain higher for longer than previously anticipated.
The forecast for rates at the end of 2024 was raised to 5.1 percent from 4.6 percent in June, while the outlook for rates at the end of 2025 was increased to 3.9 percent from 3.4 percent.
Expectations for rates to remain higher for longer may reflect an improved assessment of the economy, with the Fed's statement saying economic activity has been expanding at a "solid pace" compared to the "moderate pace" described in July.
The Fed's next monetary policy meeting is scheduled for October 31-November 1, with CME Group's FedWatch Tool currently indicating a 70.1 percent chance rates will remain unchanged and a 29.1 percent chance of a quarter point rate increase.
"While this meeting was widely viewed as a 'skip' meeting, we think it still remains to be seen if another hike is in the cards later this year," said Charlie Ripley, Senior Investment Strategist for Allianz Investment Management. "Fed officials appear to be divided on whether higher policy rates are needed to bring inflation back down to their 2% target."
"In addition, there are significant risks to the economy on the horizon with the autoworkers strike in motion and the potential for a government shutdown looming," he added. "Both these events could sideline the Fed from another hike this year."
Trading on Thursday may continue to be impacted by reaction to the Fed announcement, while reports on weekly jobless claims, existing home sales and Philadelphia-area manufacturing activity may also attract attention.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2218505/
Gold Futures Settle Higher Ahead Of Fed Policy
Gold futures settled higher on Wednesday as the dollar slipped and bond yields dropped ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy announcement.
CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicates a 99% chance the Fed will leave rates unchanged.
Meanwhile, the likelihood of another rate hike in November has seemingly decreased in recent days. The FedWatch Tool currently indicates just a 26.9% chance of a quarter point rate increase.
The Bank of England and Bank of Japan are scheduled to announce their rate decisions on Thursday.
The dollar index dropped to 104.67 before recovering slightly to 104.75, but still remained well below the flat line, losing about 0.43%.
Gold futures for December ended higher by $13.40 or about 0.7% at 1,967.10 an ounce.
Silver futures for December ended up $0.380 at $23.836 an ounce, while Copper futures for December settled at $3.7760 per pound, gaining $0.0290.
In economic releases from Europe, preliminary data from Destatis showed earlier today that German producer prices declined at a record pace in August mainly due to the base effect caused by the very high price level of the previous year.
The producer price index fell 12.6% year-over-year in August, much faster than the 6% decline in the prior month, which was the first decline since November 2020.
Elsewhere, data showed the U.K. consumer price inflation slowed unexpectedly in August.
U.K. consumer price index posted an annual increase of 6.7% in August after rising 6.8% in July, according to the Office for National Statistics. This was the weakest inflation since February 2022.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2218501/
Wednesday, 20 September 2023
*New Zealand Current Account Deficit NZ$4.21 Billion In Q2
New Zealand Current Account Deficit NZ$4.21 Billion In Q2
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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2218435/
Dollar Mixed Against Major Rivals Ahead Of Fed Policy Decision
The U.S. dollar traded weak against most of its major counterparts on Tuesday with traders awaiting the Federal Reserve's monetary policy announcement, due on Wednesday.
The Bank of England and the Bank of Japan are also set to announce their interest-rate decisions this week.
Data from the Commerce Department showed housing starts plunged by 11.3% to an annual rate of 1.283 million in August after jumping by 2% to a revised rate of 1.447 million in July. Economists had expected housing starts to decrease to an annual rate of 1.440 million from the 1.452 million originally reported for the previous month.
Another report from the Commerce Department said building permits surged by 6.9% to an annual rate of 1.543 million in August after inching up by 0.1% to a revised rate of 1.443 million in July.
Building permits, an indicator of future housing demand, were expected to rise to an annual rate of 1.445 million from the 1.442 million originally reported for the previous month.
The dollar index, which dropped to 104.82 in early New York session, recovered gradually to 105.15, but still remained in negative territory, netting a marginal loss.
Against the Euro, the dollar firmed to 1.0679 after having weakened to 1.0720 a dollar earlier in the day. The dollar is trading at 1.2391 against Pound Sterling, down marginally from the previous close.
Against the Japanese currency, the dollar is up, fetching 147.86 yen a unit. The dollar is weak against the Aussie at 0.6454, and up marginally against Swiss franc at CHF 0.8979.
Against the Loonie, the dollar weakened to C$1.3497 after data showed Canadian consumer price index rose 4% year-over-year in August, following a 3.3% increase in July. The dollar regained some lost ground as the day progressed and is currently at C$1.3445, still down 0.3% from the previous close.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2218433/
Asia Day Ahead: Sentiments on hold for Fed meeting, China’s loan prime rate in focus
Oil Futures Pare Early Gains, Settle Modestly Lower
Crude oil futures settled lower on Tuesday after posting gains in the three previous sessions.
Oil prices climbed to 10-month highs earlier in the session amid supply concerns after data showed a drop in U.S. shale output. Extended production cuts by Russia and Saudi Arabia also continued to support oil prices early on in the day.
West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures for October ended lower by $0.28 or about 0.3% at $91.20 a barrel, coming off a high of $93.74 a barrel.
Brent crude futures were down marginally at $94.40 a barrel a little while ago.
On Monday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its report that oil output in the U.S. will likely fall to 9.393 million barrels per day in October, the lowest level since May 2023.
Traders await inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) and Energy Information Administration (EIA). The API's report is due later today, while the EIA is scheduled to release its inventory data Wednesday morning.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2218432/
Ten-Year Yield Reaches 15-Year High Ahead Of Fed Announcement
Treasuries fluctuated over the course of the trading day on Tuesday but maintained a negative bias throughout the session.
Bond prices regained ground after seeing early weakness but moved back to the downside going into the close. Subsequently, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, climbed 4.6 basis points to 4.365 percent.
With the increase on the day, the ten-year yield ended the session at its highest closing level in well over fifteen years.
The weakness among treasuries came as traders remained on edge ahead of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy announcement on Wednesday.
While the Fed is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged, traders will pay close attention to the accompanying statement and the central bank's projections for clues about the outlook for rates.
CME Group's FedWatch Tool is currently indicating a 99.0 percent chance the Fed will leave rates unchanged this week.
Meanwhile, the likelihood of another rate hike in November has seemingly decreased in recent days, with the FedWatch Tool currently indicating just a 28.9 percent chance of a quarter point rate increase.
"The risks for headline inflation to heat up over the next couple of months are rising and that should complicate what the Fed does," said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA.
"Do policymakers become convinced that despite a resilient labor market, pricing pressures will continue to ease?" he added. "If core inflation shows it is struggling to continue to drop, the higher-for-longer rate regime will last a lot longer than the market is pricing in."
In U.S. economic news, the Commerce Department released a report showing a sharp pullback in U.S. housing starts in the month of August.
The report said housing starts plunged by 11.3 percent to an annual rate of 1.283 million in August after jumping by 2.0 percent to a revised rate of 1.447 million in July.
Economists had expected housing starts to decrease to an annual rate of 1.440 million from the 1.452 million originally reported for the previous month.
With the substantial pullback, housing starts tumbled to their lowest level since hitting an annual rate of 1.266 million in June 2020.
Meanwhile, the Commerce Department said building permits surged by 6.9 percent to an annual rate of 1.543 million in August after inching up by 0.1 percent to a revised rate of 1.443 million in July.
Building permits, an indicator of future housing demand, were expected to rise to an annual rate of 1.445 million from the 1.442 million originally reported for the previous month.
With the sharp increase, building permits reached their highest level since hitting an annual rate of 1.555 million last October.
The Fed's monetary policy announcement is likely to be in the spotlight on Wednesday amid an otherwise quiet day on the U.S. economic front.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2218431/
Gold Futures Settle Higher For 4th Straight Day As Dollar Stays Weak
Gold futures settled higher on Tuesday, gaining for a fourth straight session, as the dollar stayed weak ahead of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy announcement, due on Wednesday.
The Fed is widely expected to pause on rate hikes. CME Group's FedWatch Tool is currently indicating a 99% chance the Fed will leave rates unchanged this week.
Meanwhile, the likelihood of another rate hike in November has seemingly decreased in recent days, with the FedWatch Tool currently indicating just a 28.8% chance of quarter point rate increase.
The Bank of England and the Bank of Japan are scheduled to make their policy announcements on Thursday.
Gold futures for December ended higher by $0.30 at $1,953.70 an ounce, the highest settlement in more than two weeks.
Silver futures for December ended down $0.042 at $23.456 an ounce, while Copper futures for December settled at $3.7470 per pound, down 0.0320 from the previous close.
"The risks for headline inflation to heat up over the next couple of months are rising and that should complicate what the Fed does," said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA.
"Do policymakers become convinced that despite a resilient labor market, pricing pressures will continue to ease?" he added. "If core inflation shows it is struggling to continue to drop, the higher-for-longer rate regime will last a lot longer than the market is pricing in."
Data from the Commerce Department showed housing starts plunged by 11.3% to an annual rate of 1.283 million in August after jumping by 2% to a revised rate of 1.447 million in July. Economists had expected housing starts to decrease to an annual rate of 1.440 million from the 1.452 million originally reported for the previous month.
Another report from the Commerce Department said building permits surged by 6.9% to an annual rate of 1.543 million in August after inching up by 0.1% to a revised rate of 1.443 million in July.
Building permits, an indicator of future housing demand, were expected to rise to an annual rate of 1.445 million from the 1.442 million originally reported for the previous month.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2218430/
Tuesday, 19 September 2023
Crude Oil Price Claims the High Ground as Market Scrambles. Higher WTI?
RBA Minutes On Tap For Tuesday
The Reserve Bank of Australia will on Tuesday release the minutes from its September meeting, highlighting a light day for Asia-Pacific economic activity.
At the meeting, Australia's central bank left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.10 percent for the third straight meeting. The interest rate paid on exchange settlement balances also was kept unchanged at 4.00 percent.
Malaysia will provide August figures for imports, exports and trade balance. Imports are expected to sink 18.5 percent on year after falling 15.9 percent in July. Exports are called lower by an annual 14.6 percent after slipping 13.1 percent in the previous month. The trade surplus is pegged at MYR13.30 billion, down from MYR17.10 billion a month earlier.
Hong Kong will see unemployment data for August, with forecasts suggesting no change in the jobless rate at 2.8 percent.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2218384/
Australian Dollar Ponders Path Ahead After RBA Minutes. Will AUD/USD Breakout?
Oil Futures Settle Higher For 3rd Straight Day
Oil futures settled higher on Monday, rising for a third straight session, as prices moved up amid tightening global crude supplies.
Prospects of higher demand, and a weak dollar contributed as well to the rise in oil prices.
West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures for October ended higher by $0.71 or about 0.8% at $91.48 a barrel. the highest settlement this year.
Brent crude futures were up $0.47 or about 0.5% at $94.40 a barrel a little while ago.
With Saudi Arabia and Russia deciding earlier this month to extend their voluntary output cuts till the end of the year, oil prices have been climbing higher.
Recent economic data showing an uptick in industrial production in China has raised hopes about the demand outlook from the world's second largest economy.
Industrial production jumped 4.5% in August versus previous month's readings that stood at 3.7%. Markets had expected a spike to 3.9%. Likewise retail sales in August jumped to 4.6%, from previous reading of 2.5% and expectations of 3%.
The stimulus measures already announced by the Chinese govt as well as expectations of more to come abetted the positive demand outlook for crude oil.
Last week, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) issued updated forecasts of solid demand and pointed to a potential 2023 supply deficit if production cuts persist.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2218381/
Asia Day Ahead: Wait-and-See in Lead-Up to Fed’s Decision, RBA Minutes in Focus
Gold Futures Settle Higher As Dollar Weakens Ahead Of Fed Policy Meeting
Gold futures settled higher on Monday as the dollar shed ground ahead of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting.
The Fed, which is scheduled to announce its rate decision on Wednesday, is widely expected to hold rates unchanged but traders will pay close attention to the accompanying statement and the central bank's projections for clues about the outlook for rates.
While CME Group's FedWatch Tool is currently indicating a 99% chance the Fed will leave rates unchanged this week, the outlook for the November meeting is somewhat more mixed.
The FedWatch Tool is indicating a 69% chance rates will remain unchanged in November but a 30.7% chance of another quarter point rate hike.
The dollar index dropped to 105.02 in the New York session.
Gold futures for December ended higher by $7.20 or about 0.4% at 1,953.40 an ounce.
Silver futures for December ended up $0.112 at $23.498 an ounce, while Copper futures for december settled at $3.7790 per pound, down $0.0220 from the previous close.
On the U.S. economic front, the National Association of Home Builders released a report showing homebuilder confidence in the U.S. has unexpectedly deteriorated in the month of September.
The report said the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index slumped to 45 in September after tumbling to 50 in August. Economists had expected the index to come in unchanged.
The housing market index dropped below the key breakeven measure of 50 for the first time in five months, as persistently high mortgage rates above 7% continue to erode builder confidence.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2218380/
Monday, 18 September 2023
New Zealand Services Sector Contracts Further In August - BusinessNZ
The services sector in New Zealand continued to contract in August, and at a faster rate, the latest survey from BusinessNZ revealed on Monday with a Performance of Services Index score of 47.1.
That's down from the upwardly revised 48.0 in July (originally 47.8) and it moves further beneath the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction.
Among the individual components of the survey, supplier deliveries (49.2), activity/sales (43.4) and new orders (47.3) contracted, while employment (50.9) and stocks/inventories (52.5) expanded.
"The latest PCI readings suggest any bounce through the Q2 GDP figures will be short lived and are consistent with economic contraction returning. In this sense, the PMI and PSI results are more consistent with the RBNZ forecast of a return to recession than the Treasury's latest forecasts of moderate growth ahead," BNZ Senior Economist Doug Steel said.
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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2218352/
*New Zealand Performance Of Service Index 47.1 In August
New Zealand Performance Of Service Index 47.1 In August
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2218351/
Singapore Trade Data Due On Monday
Singapore will on Monday release August figures for non-oil domestic exports, highlighting a light day for Asia-Pacific economic activity.
Exports are expected to rise 5.6 percent on month and sink 15.8 percent on year after falling 3.4 percent on month and 20.2 percent on year in July. The trade surplus is pegged at SGD5.787 billion, down from SGD6.490 billion in the previous month.
New Zealand will see August results for the Performance of Service Index from BusinessNZ; in July, the index score was 47.8.
Finally, the markets in Japan are closed on Monday for Respect for the Aged Day and will re-open on Tuesday.
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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2218350/
Asia Day Ahead: Calm before the storm, as STI remains in range, AUD/USD struggles
British Pound Slides Ahead of BoE Rate Decision. Where to for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP?
Sunday, 17 September 2023
Markets Week Ahead: US Dollar, Fed, Sterling, BoE, Japanese Yen, BoJ and More
USD Weekly Forecast: DXY Firmly Focused on Fed Rate Announcement
Saturday, 16 September 2023
U.S. Dollar Pulling Back Modestly Off Six-Month Highs
The value of the U.S. dollar is seeing modest weakness during trading on Friday, giving back ground following the advance seen on Thursday.
The U.S. dollar index is currently down 0.05 points or 0.1 percent at 105.35 after reaching its best levels in six month's during yesterday's trading.
The greenback is trading at 147.88 yen versus the 147.47 yen it fetched at the close of New York trading on Thursday. Against the euro, the dollar is valued at $1.0649 compared to yesterday's $1.0659.
The modest pullback by the dollar comes as traders look ahead to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting next week.
While the Fed is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged next week, recent U.S. economic data has led to uncertainty about future rate hikes.
The Labor Department released a report this morning showing a bigger than expected increase in U.S. import prices in the month of August as well as a much bigger than expected surge in U.S. export prices.
The Labor Department said import prices climbed by 0.5 percent in August after a downwardly revised 0.1 percent uptick in July.
Economists had expected import prices to rise by 0.3 percent compared to the 0.4 percent increase originally reported for the previous month.
Meanwhile, the report said export prices spiked by 1.3 percent in August after climbing by a downwardly revised 0.5 percent in July.
Economist had expected export prices to increase by 0.3 percent compared to the 0.7 percent advance originally reported for the previous month.
A separate report released by the New York Fed showed a substantial turnaround in New York manufacturing activity in the month of September.
The Federal Reserve also released a report showing U.S. industrial production increased by much more than expected in the month of August.
The report said industrial production climbed by 0.4 percent in August following a downwardly revised 0.7 percent advance in July.
Economists had expected industrial production to inch up by 0.1 percent compared to the 1.0 percent jump originally reported for the previous month.
Meanwhile, a report from the University of Michigan showed a notable decrease in near-term and long-term inflation expectations.
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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2218349/
Gold Futures Settle Higher As Dollar Turns Weak
Gold futures settled higher on Friday as the dollar turned weak, falling from a six-month high it touched in the previous session.
Encouraging retail sales and industrial production data from China, and expectations that interest rates in the U.S. and Europe may have peaked, weighed on U.S. dollar.
The dollar index, which dropped to 105.08, recovered to 105.26, but still remained weak, netting a loss of about 0.14%.
Gold futures for December ended higher by $13.40 or about 0.7% at $1,946.20 an ounce.
Silver futures for December ended up $0.392 at $23.386 an ounce, while Copper futures for December settled lower by $0.0205 at $3.8010 per pound.
"Gold prices are surging as risk aversion percolates and as long-run inflation expectations show the consumer is expecting an inflation slowdown. A lot of pessimism is growing across Europe and that is triggering some safe-haven flows towards gold," says Edward Moya, Senior Market Analyst at OANDA.
On Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) piled on a 10th straight interest-rate increase but signaled a potential end to its rate-hike campaign aimed at curbing inflation.
Elsewhere, in the U.K., some recent speeches from MPC members have added fuel to the speculation that the Bank of England (BoE) is starting to consider pausing interest rate hikes.
China's industrial production posted an annual increase of 4.5%, while analysts expected output to climb moderately by 3.9% after a 3.7% increase in July.
Likewise, growth in retail sales improved to 4.6% in August from 2.5% in the previous month. This was also better than economists' forecast of 3%.
In U.S. economic data, data from the Labor Department showed import prices climbed by 0.5% in August after a downwardly revised 0.1% uptick in July. Economists had expected import prices to rise by 0.3% compared to the 0.4% increase originally reported for the previous month.
Meanwhile, the report said export prices spiked by 1.3% in August after climbing by a downwardly revised 0.5% in July.
A separate report released by the New York Fed showed a substantial turnaround in New York manufacturing activity in the month of September.
The Federal Reserve also released a report showing U.S. industrial production climbed by 0.4% in August following a downwardly revised 0.7% advance in July. Economists had expected industrial production to inch up by 0.1% compared to the 1% jump originally reported for the previous month.
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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2218346/
Friday, 15 September 2023
How Will the US Dollar React to Fed Rate Decision Next Week?
*New Zealand Performance Of Manufacturing Index 46.1 In August - BusinessNZ
New Zealand Performance Of Manufacturing Index 46.1 In August - BusinessNZ
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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2218253/
Dollar Rises To 6-month High On Strong Economic Data
The U.S. dollar climbed higher on Thursday thanks to upbeat economic data, and on the European Central Bank signaling a likely halt to its rate hike cycle.
Data released by the Commerce Department said retail sales climbed by 0.6% in August after rising by a downwardly revised 0.5% in July. Economists had expected retail sales to inch up by 0.2% compared to the 0.7% increase originally reported for the previous month.
The bigger than expected increase in retail sales was largely due to higher gas prices, however, as sales rose by just 0.2% excluding sales by gas stations.
A separate report released by the Labor Department showed producer prices in the U.S. increased by more than expected in month of August. The report said the producer price index for final demand advanced by 0.7% in August after climbing by an upwardly revised 0.4% in July.
Economists had expected producer prices to rise by 0.4% compared to the 0.3% increase originally reported for the previous month.
The report also said the annual rate of producer price growth doubled to 1.6% in August from 0.8% in July. The annual rate of growth was expected to accelerate to 1.2%.
Another report released by the Labor Department showed first-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits edged up by less than expected in the week ended September 9th. The report said initial jobless claims crept up to 220,000, an increase of 3,000 from the previous week's revised level of 217,000.
The dollar index, which climbed to a six-month high of 105.44, eased a bit to 105.33, but still remained quite strong, gaining about 0.55%.
Against the Euro, the dollar firmed to 1.0645 from 1.0732. The ECB raised its key interest rates for the tenth policy session in a row as rate-setters assessed the euro area inflation to remain "too high for too long", but signaled a pause, possibly a long one, in the tightening cycle as the bank saw it prudent to guide that the current level of interest rates if maintained for long would ensure a timely return of inflation to the 2% target.
The dollar strengthened to 1.2411 against Pound Sterling, gaining from 1.2489.
Against the Japanese currency, the dollar is down slightly at 147.43 yen, and against the Aussie, it weakened to 0.6440.
The dollar is firm against Swiss franc, fetching CHF 0.8956 a unit, while trading weak against the loonie at C$1.3512.
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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2218251/
Asia Day Ahead: VIX Back at Year-to-Date Low, Nikkei 225 Hits Two Month High
Gold Futures Settle Marginally Higher
Gold futures settled higher on Thursday, although the uptick was just marginal as the dollar climbed up amid uncertainty about the outlook for U.S. interest rates.
The European Central Bank today raised its key interest rates for the tenth policy session in a row as rate-setters assessed the euro area inflation to remain "too high for too long."
However, the ECB signaled a pause, possibly a long one, in the tightening cycle as the bank saw it prudent to guide that the current level of interest rates if maintained for long would ensure a timely return of inflation to the 2% target.
The dollar index climbed to 105.40, gaining about 0.6%.
Gold futures for December ended higher by $0.30 at $1,932.80 an ounce.
Silver futures for December ended down $0.187 at $22.994 an ounce, while Copper futures for December settled at $3.8215 per pound, gaining $0.0285.
In economic news, a Commerce Department report showed retail sales in the U.S. increased by much more than expected in the month of August.
The report said retail sales climbed by 0.6% in August after rising by a downwardly revised 0.5% in July. Economists had expected retail sales to inch up by 0.2% compared to the 0.7% increase originally reported for the previous month.
The bigger than expected increase in retail sales was largely due to higher gas prices, however, as sales rose by just 0.2% excluding sales by gas stations.
A separate report released by the Labor Department showed producer prices in the U.S. increased by more than expected in month of August. The producer price index for final demand advanced by 0.7% in August after climbing by an upwardly revised 0.4% in July.
Economists had expected producer prices to rise by 0.4% compared to the 0.3% increase originally reported for the previous month.
The report also said the annual rate of producer price growth doubled to 1.6% in August from 0.8% in July. The annual rate of growth was expected to accelerate to 1.2%.
"Wall Street seems content with the risk of one more Fed rate hike as consumer resilience is expected to gradually weaken," said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA.
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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2218248/
Thursday, 14 September 2023
*Japan Core Machine Orders -1.1% On Month, -13.0% On Year In July
Japan Core Machine Orders -1.1% On Month, -13.0% On Year In July
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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2218182/
Australia Unemployment Data On Tap For Thursday
Australia will on Thursday release August figures for unemployment, highlighting a modest day for Asia-Pacific economic activity. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 3.7 percent, with the addition of 24,300 jobs following the loss of 14,600 jobs in July. The participation rate is seen unchanged at 66.7 percent.
Japan will provide July numbers for core machine orders and revised industrial production. Machine orders are expected to sink 0.9 percent on month and 10.7 percent on year after rising 2.7 percent on month and dropping 5.8 percent on year in June. Industrial production is expected to slip 2.0 percent on month, unrevised.
Singapore will see unemployment data for the second quarter of 2023, with forecasts expecting the jobless rate to hold steady at 1.9 percent.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2218181/
Australian Dollar Holds Early Gains After Jobs Beat; Is AUD/USD Forming a Base?
Dollar Turns In Subdued Performance After Inflation Data
The U.S. dollar was subdued against most of its major counterparts on Wednesday after inflation data came in line with expectations.
Data from the Labor Department showed the consumer price index climbed by 0.6% in August after inching up by 0.2% in July. The price growth matched expectations.
Excluding food and energy prices, core consumer prices rose by 0.3% in August after edging up by 0.2% in July. Economists had expected another 0.2% uptick.
The Labor Department also said the annual rate of consumer price growth accelerated to 3.7% in August from 3.2% in July. The annual rate of growth was expected to accelerate to 3.6%.
Meanwhile, the report said the annual rate of growth by core consumer prices slowed to 4.3% in August from 4.7% in July, in line with economist estimates.
The data has reinforced expectations the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged next week. However, many economists feel the slightly bigger than expected monthly increase in core prices leaves the door open for another rate hike.
The dollar index, which rose to 104.97, dropped to around 104.55 but recovered to 104.76, recording a marginal gain.
Against the Euro, the dollar firmed to 1.0732 from 1.0756. Against Pound Sterling, the dollar gained marginally at 1.2490.
The dollar is up against the Japanese currency, fetching 147.45 yen a unit. Against the Aussie, the dollar edged up marginally at 0.4621.
Against Swiss franc, the dollar is gaining more than 2% at C$ 0.8933, while it is down marginally against the U.S. franc, at $1.3554.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2218180/
Treasuries Close Modestly Higher After Recovering From Initial Weakness
After coming under pressure early in the session, treasuries showed a significant turnaround over the course of the trading day on Wednesday.
Bond prices climbed well off their early lows and managed to finish the day modestly higher. As a result, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, dipped 1.5 basis points to 4.249 percent after reaching a high of 4.344 percent.
The initial weakness among treasuries came following the release of the Labor Department's highly anticipated report on consumer price inflation in the month of August.
The report said the consumer price index climbed by 0.6 percent in August after inching up by 0.2 percent in July. The increase matched expectations.
Excluding food and energy prices, core consumer prices rose by 0.3 percent in August after edging up by 0.2 percent in July. Economists had expected another 0.2 percent uptick.
The Labor Department also said the annual rate of consumer price growth accelerated to 3.7 percent in August from 3.2 percent in July. The annual rate of growth was expected to accelerate to 3.6 percent.
Meanwhile, the report said the annual rate of growth by core consumer prices slowed to 4.3 percent in August from 4.7 percent in July, in line with economist estimates.
Treasuries initially moved to the downside, as the bigger than expected monthly increase in core prices added to recent concerns about the outlook for interest rates.
Selling pressure waned shortly after the start of trading, however, as while economists said the data leaves the door open for another rate hike before the end of the year, it also reinforced expectations the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged next week.
"We expect Fed officials to look past the rise in headline CPI, but the uptick in the core CPI is reminder that the risks remain tilted toward additional rate hikes," said Nancy Vanden Houten, Lead U.S. Economist at Oxford Economics.
She added, "However, we expect that a slowing economy, looser labor market conditions and moderating wage growth will support a further deceleration in inflation, allowing the Fed to keep policy steady until it begins to gradually cut rates in the mid-2024."
Following the report, CME Group's FedWatch Tool is indicating a 97.0 percent chance the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged next week.
Meanwhile, the FedWatch Tool is indicating a 58.0 percent chance rates will remain unchanged in November and a 40.8 percent chance of another quarter point rate hike.
Trading on Thursday may be impacted by reaction to a slew of U.S. economic data, including reports on weekly jobless claims, retail sales and producer price inflation.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2218179/
Oil Futures Settle Lower As Crude Stockpiles Surge
Crude oil futures settled lower on Wednesday as worries about the outlook for energy demand, and data showing a larger than expected jump in U.S. crude inventories weighed on prices.
West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures for October ended lower by $0.32 or about 0.4% at $88.52 a barrel.
Brent crude futures were down $0.11 or 0.12% at $91.95 a barrel a little while ago.
Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed crude inventories rose by 3.954 million barrels in the week ended September 8th, as against expectations for a 1.912 million drop.
Gasoline stock piles increased by 5.56 million barrels last week, much larger than an expected rise of 237,000 barrels, while distillate stockpiles rose by 3.931 million barrels, about 3 times the expected increase of 1.303 million barrels.
"Oil prices softened after the US inflation report suggested consumer spending will weaken given the surge in gasoline prices and airfares," says Edward Moya, Senior Market Analyst at OANDA. "The economic data doesn't bode well for the crude demand outlook going into year end," he adds.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2218178/
Thirty-Year Bond Auction Attracts Above Average Demand
Finishing off this week's series of announcement of the results of its long-term securities auctions, the Treasury Department on Wednesday revealed this month's auction of $20 billion worth of thirty-year bonds attracted above average demand.
The thirty-year bond auction drew a high yield of 4.345 percent and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.46.
Last month, the Treasury sold $23 billion worth of thirty-year bonds, drawing a high yield of 4.189 percent and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.42.
The bid-to-cover ratio is a measure of demand that indicates the amount of bids for each dollar worth of securities being sold.
The ten previous thirty-year bond auctions had an average bid-to-cover ratio of 2.37.
Earlier this week, the Treasury revealed this month's auction of $44 billion worth of three-year notes and $35 billion worth of ten-year notes also attracted above average demand.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2218176/
Wednesday, 13 September 2023
Japan Producer Price Data Due On Wednesday
Japan will on Wednesday release August figures for producer prices, highlighting a light day for Asia-Pacific economic activity.
Producer prices are expected to rise 0.1 percent on month and 3.2 percent on year after adding 0.1 percent on month and 3,6 percent on year in July.
Hong Kong will provide Q2 numbers for industrial production and producer prices. In the three months prior, industrial production climbed 3.9 percent on year and producer prices added an annual 1.0 percent.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2218110/
British Pound Ahead of UK GDP: GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, GBP/JPY Setups
Dollar Gains Against Major Counterparts Ahead Of Inflation Data
The U.S. dollar climbed higher on Tuesday, recovering from recent weakness, ahead of crucial economic data, including reports on consumer and producer price inflation and retail sales.
The Federal Reserve is scheduled to announce its monetary policy decision next week. The European Central Bank's policy announcement is due on Thursday.
Economists expect the annual rate of consumer price growth to accelerate to 3.6% in August from 3.2% in July, while the annual rate of core consumer price growth is expected to slow to 4.4% from 4.7%.
The inflation data could have a significant impact on the outlook for interest rates ahead of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting next week.
Ahead of the data, CME Group's FedWatch Tool is currently indicating a 93% chance the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged next week.
The outlook for November is a little more uncertain, however, with the FedWatch Tool indicating a 56.4% chance rates will remain unchanged and a 40.9% chance of another quarter point rate hike.
The dollar index, which rose to 104.92 in early New York session, dropped to 104.70, but still remained positive, netting a gain of about 0.12%.
Against the Euro, the dollar gained marginally to 1.0742, and was up against Pound Sterling at $1.2494.
The dollar is gaining at 147.04 yen, rising from 146.59 yen. Against the Aussie, the dollar has gained slightly at 0.6426. The dollar is down slightly against Swiss franc at CHF 0.8911. Against the Loonie, the dollar is weak at C$ 1.3556, firming from C$ 1.3576, as oil prices rallied on supply concerns.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2218107/
Gold Price Slips as US Dollar Recovers Ahead of US CPI. Lower XAU/USD?
Treasuries Finish Choppy Trading Session Modestly Higher
Treasuries showed a lack of direction throughout much of the trading day on Tuesday before eventually closing modestly higher.
Bond prices spent most of the session lingering near the unchanged line but moved to the upside going into the close. Subsequently, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, dipped 2.4 basis points to 4.264 percent.
The late-day strength among treasuries came after the Treasury Department revealed this month's auction of $35 billion worth of ten-year notes attracted above average demand.
The ten-year note auction drew a high yield of 4.289 and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.52, while the ten previous ten-year note auctions had an average bid-to-cover ratio of 2.43.
The bid-to-cover ratio is a measure of demand that indicates the amount of bids for each dollar worth of securities being sold.
The choppy trading seen for most of the day came as traders looked ahead to the release of the Labor Department's highly anticipated report on consumer price inflation on Wednesday.
Economists currently expect the annual rate of consumer price growth to accelerate to 3.6 percent in August from 3.2 percent in July, while the annual rate of core consumer price growth is expected to slow to 4.4 percent from 4.7 percent.
The inflation data could have a significant impact on the outlook for interest rates ahead of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting next week.
Ahead of the data, CME Group's FedWatch Tool is currently indicating a 93.0 percent chance the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged next week.
The outlook for November is a little more uncertain, however, with the FedWatch Tool indicating a 56.4 percent chance rates will remain unchanged and a 40.9 percent chance of another quarter point rate hike.
Trading on Wednesday is likely to be driven by reaction to the report on consumer price inflation and the impact on the outlook for interest rates.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2218105/
Gold Futures Settle Higher As Dollar Rises Ahead Of Inflation Data
Gold prices fell on Tuesday as the dollar rebounded, regaining some lost ground, ahead of the release of U.S. inflation and other macroeconomic indicators this week.
The Federal Reserve is scheduled to announce its interest-rate decision on September 20.
The highly anticipated U.S. consumer price inflation report is due on Wednesday, with a surprise upside in inflation likely to spoil the market mood and boost the appeal for the U.S. dollar.
The Fed is likely to pause its recent series of rate hikes next week but the outlook for November remains a little more uncertain, with the FedWatch Tool currently indicating a 42.6% chance of another quarter point rate hike.
The dollar index climbed to 104.92 in early New York session, and despite paring some gains subsequently, remains well above the flat line, at 104.74.
Gold futures for December ended lower by $12.10 or about 0.6% at $1,935.10 an ounce.
Silver futures for December ended up $0.019 at $23.402 an ounce, while Copper futures for December settled at $3.7920 per pound, down $0.0150 from the previous close.
"Investors are preparing for a potentially hot inflation report and for the Fed to deliver a hawkish hold next week," says Edward Moya, Senior Market Analyst at OANDA. "It looks inflation is going to have some trouble falling to target and that has some investors anticipating a pickup with inflation over the next few months." Moya adds that gold is struggling as rate cut bets get pushed further into next year. "The end of tightening is not here and eventually that will disrupt soft landing calls. Gold will eventually attract investors, but right now the risks are still for more dollar strength over the short-term."
The European Central Bank, which is scheduled to announce its monetary policy on Thursday, is expected to hike all three policy rates by 25 basis points, citing a weaker growth outlook and no clear evidence of a peak in core inflation. Few economists, however, predict it will be a close call.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2218104/
Tuesday, 12 September 2023
Asia Day Ahead: USD/CNH Retraces From October 2022 Peak, EUR/USD Stabilises
Dollar Loses Ground Against Major Counterparts
The U.S. dollar drifted lower against most of its major counterparts on Monday as traders looked ahead to inflation data that could influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate path.
Risk sentiment improved after inflation data from China stoked optimism about easing deflationary pressures in the world's second-largest economy.
The U.S. CPI is expected to have increased 3.6% in August from 3.2% in the prior month. Meanwhile, the core reading is seen softening to 4.3% from 4.7%.
This week will also see the release of key U.S. reports on producer inflation, retail sales, industrial production and consumer sentiment.
CME Group's FedWatch Tool currently indicates a 93% chance the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates later this month but a 43.4% chance of another rate hike in November.
The dollar index dropped to 104.42 before recovering some lost ground. At 104.55, the index is down 0.52% from the previous close.
Against the Euro, the dollar weakened to 1.0749 from 1.0703, and against Pound Sterling, it eased to 1.2509 from 1.2467.
The dollar is weak against the Japanese currency, fetching 146.60 yen a unit, compared to 147.82 a yen a unit on Friday.
The dollar is down sharply against the Aussie at 0.6431. Against Swiss franc, the dollar weakened to CHF 0.8909 from CHF 0.8931, and against the Loonie, it dropped to C$1.3575.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2218042/
Australian Dollar Holds High Ground as US Dollar Slips. Will Rates Drive AUD/USD?
Oil Futures Settle Lower
Crude oil prices fell on Monday, retreating a bit after having climbed to 10-month highs last week on Saudi Arabia and Russia's decision to extend their supply cuts.
Concerns about the outlook for energy demand from China hurt oil prices.
West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures for October ended lower by $0.22 or about 0.3% at $87.29 a barrel.
Brent crude futures were down marginally at $90.61 a barrel a little while ago.
"OPEC+ has basically guaranteed the oil market will remain tight for the rest of the year, which means any softening demand side headlines will only produce buying opportunities. Unless the global economy takes a severe turn for the worse, oil prices look like they are going to stay elevated," says Edward Moya, Senior Market Analyst at OANDA.
Traders now look ahead to the release of key U.S. inflation and other data this week that could have a significant impact on the outlook for interest rates.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) are scheduled to release their monthly reports this week.
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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2218040/