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Tuesday, 31 October 2023

Dollar Loses Ground Ahead Of Central Bank Policy Meetings

The U.S. dollar shed ground against its major rivals on Monday, with investors looking ahead to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy announcement for clues about the central bank's interest rate moves.

The Fed meeting is scheduled to take place on Tuesday and Wednesday. The central bank is widely expected to leave rates unchanged. The accompanying statement is eyed for clues about future interest rate hikes, if any.

The Bank of Japan and the Bank of England are also scheduled to announce their monetary policies this week.

The U.S. non-farm payroll data is due on Friday. Economists expect a job growth of 180,000 in October, down from an increase of 336,000 jobs in the previous month. The unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 3.8%.

The dollar index dropped to 106.06 and remains weak at 106.14, down 0.4% from the previous close.

Against the Euro, the dollar is down at 1.0617, dropping from 1.0566. The dollar is weak against Pound Sterling at $1.2170 after having settled at 1.2120 on Friday.

The dollar is trading weak against the Japanese currency, fetching 149.08 yen a unit, down from the previous close of 149.68 yen a dollar.

Against the Aussie, the dollar is trading at 0.6377, down by about 0.8%. The dollar is down marginally against Swiss franc at CHF 0.9018. Against the Loonie, the dollar is weak at C$ 1.3828, down from C$ 1.3882.


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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2220461/

Gold Futures Settle At 3-month High As Dollar Drifts Lower

Gold prices climbed higher on Monday as the dollar weakened ahead of crucial policy announcements from central banks, including the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England, due this week.

Slightly easing tensions in the Middle East limited the yellow metal's upside.

The dollar index, which dropped to 106.06, recovered slightly to 106.21, but was still notably down from the previous close of 106.56.

Gold futures for December ended higher by $7.10 at $2,005.60 an ounce, the highest settlement in about three months.

Silver futures for December ended up $0.509 at $23.396 an ounce, while Copper futures for December settled at $3.6585 per pound, gaining $0.0125.

Israeli troops have entered the Gaza Strip for the first time in nearly two decades, but it's unclear whether the maneuvers mark the official start of an invasion.

After U.S. airstrikes targeted Iranian targets in Syria last week, there were fears that tensions could spread into a wider conflict.

The U.S. has advised Israel to delay ground invasion in Gaza to allow hostage negotiations. The United Nations Security Council is due to be briefed on the humanitarian situation in Gaza today.

On the economic front, the Fed is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged on Wednesday. Traders will pay close attention to the accompanying statement for clues about the potential for further rate hikes.

Following the Fed announcement, the Labor Department's closely watched monthly employment report is likely to move into the spotlight later in the week.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2220458/

Monday, 30 October 2023

Crude Oil Steadies as Markets Assess Middle East Risks Ahead of the Fed

The crude oil price is struggling for direction as the uncertainty for energy supply going forward weighs on sentiment. US Dollar gyrations are also dominating markets as the Fed decision looms. Via DailyFX - Market News https://www.dailyfx.com

Australia Retail Sales Data Due On Monday

Australia will on Monday release preliminary September figures for retail sales, highlighting an extremely light day for Asia-Pacific economic activity.

Sales are expected to rise 0.3 percent on month after adding 0.2 percent in August.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2220402/

Canadian Dollar Outlook After BoC Stands Pat: USD/CAD, EUR/CAD, AUD/CAD

CAD is testing the lower end of the past one-year range against USD after BoC governor last week indicated that interest rates may have peaked. What is the outlook for USD/CAD, AUD/CAD, and EUR/CAD? Via DailyFX - Market News https://www.dailyfx.com

Gold Price Jumps Hurdles Ahead of Fed and Despite a USD Rally. Higher XAU/USD?

The gold price steadied to start the week after climbing to a five-month peak last Friday. The precious metal has overcome higher Treasury yields and a solid US Dollar. Via DailyFX - Market News https://www.dailyfx.com

Sunday, 29 October 2023

Markets Week Ahead: Nasdaq, Gold, US Dollar; FOMC, BOJ, BoE, China PMI, Euro Area Inflation, US Jobs

Key focus in the coming week will be on the Q3 earning season, the Fed, the BOJ, and the BoE interest rate decisions. In addition, geopolitical developments in the Middle East and global manufacturing activity data will be closely watched. Via DailyFX - Market News https://www.dailyfx.com

Saturday, 28 October 2023

Dollar Turns In Mixed Performance Against Major Rivals

The dollar was a bit volatile against its major counterparts on Friday, with traders reacting to the latest batch of economic data and continuing to monitor the developments on the geopolitical front, and looking ahead to the upcoming eventful week.

The Federal Reserve is scheduled to announce its monetary policy on Wednesday (November 1). The Bank of Japan is also slated to announce its policy next week.

A report released by the Commerce Department on Friday showed personal income in the U.S. increased by slightly less than expected in the month of September.

The Commerce Department said personal income rose by 0.3% in September after climbing by 0.4% in August. Economists had expected income to advance by another 0.4%.

Meanwhile, the report said personal spending increased by 0.7% in September after rising by 0.4% in August. Spending was expected to climb by 0.5%.

The Commerce Department also said its reading on consumer prices rose by 0.4% in September, matching the increase in August.

The annual rate of consumer price growth was unchanged at 3.4%, while the annual rate of core consumer price growth slipped to 3.7% in September from 3.8% in August.

Revised data released by the University of Michigan on Friday showed consumer sentiment in the U.S. deteriorated by slightly less than previously estimated in the month of October. The report said the consumer sentiment index for October was upwardly revised to 63.8 from the preliminary estimate of 63.0.

The dollar index, which climbed to 106.80 in early New York session, dropped to 106.32 around mid morning, but recovered to 106.56, trimming its loss to 0.04%.

Against the Euro, the dollar was roughly flat at 1.0568 a little while ago, recovering from 1.0599. Against Pound Sterling, the dollar was up marginally at 1.2121.

The dollar weakened to 149.67 yen, easing from 150.40. Against the Aussie, the dollar was down at 0.6331, and against Swiss franc, strengthened to CHF 0.9020 from CHF 0.8990.

The dollar gained against the loonie, fetching C$ 1.3878 a unit, compared to C$ 1.3832 on Thursday.


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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2220401/

Oil Futures End Session Sharply Higher, But Post Weekly Loss

Crude oil prices rose sharply on Friday as tensions in the Middle East escalated with Israeli ground forces expanding operations in Gaza.

With the war intensifying, it is feared tensions could spread into a wider conflict and disrupt global crude supplies.

West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures for December ended higher by $2.33 or about 2.8% at $85.54 a barrel. WTI crude futures posted a weekly loss of about 3.6%.

Brent crude futures settled at $90.48 a barrel today, gaining $2.55 or about 2.9%. Brent crude futures shed about 2% in the week.

Oil prices surged after US airstrikes targeted Iranian targets in Syria. "Middle East tensions are not going away anytime soon and that could eventually lead to some crude export disruptions from Iran," says Edward Moya, Senior Market Analyst at OANDA.

The attack by the U.S. was in response to a flurry of recent rocket and drone assaults against American soldiers in Iraq and Syria.

Meanwhile, a report from Baker Hughes said the oil rig count saw its first monthly increase since November 2022, after drillers added rigs for a third week in a row.

The oil and gas rig count rose one to 625 in the week to October 27. The U.S. oil rigs rose by two to 504 this week, while gas rigs by fell by one to 117.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2220400/

Gold Futures Shed Gains After Hitting 5-month High, Settle Just Marginally Up

Gold prices climbed to five-month highs on Friday, with rising Middle East tensions pushing up the demand for the safe-haven metal.

However, amid concerns about the outlook for interest rates, the yellow metal gave up most of its gains as the session progressed and eventually ended the day's session just marginally up. A somewhat subdued dollar supported gold's uptick. The dollar index, which climbed to 106.80 in early New York session, dropped to 106.32 around mid morning, but recovered to 106.55 later on, cutting its loss to just around 0.05%.

Edward Moya, Senior Market Analyst at OANDA expects the coming week will be key for the bond as all the rate decisions and the Treasury's refunding statement are due.

Gold futures for December ended higher by $1.10 at $1,998.50 an ounce, after rising to a high of $20,17.70 an ounce.

Silver futures for December ended down $0.021 at $22.887 an ounce, while Copper futures for December settled at $3.6460 per pound, gaining $0.0615.

A report released by the Commerce Department on Friday showed personal income in the U.S. increased by slightly less than expected in the month of September.

The Commerce Department said personal income rose by 0.3% in September after climbing by 0.4% in August. Economists had expected income to advance by another 0.4%.

Meanwhile, the report said personal spending increased by 0.7% in September after rising by 0.4% in August. Spending was expected to climb by 0.5%.

The Commerce Department also said its reading on consumer prices rose by 0.4% in September, matching the increase in August.

The annual rate of consumer price growth was unchanged at 3.4%, while the annual rate of core consumer price growth slipped to 3.7% in September from 3.8% in August.

Revised data released by the University of Michigan on Friday showed consumer sentiment in the U.S. deteriorated by slightly less than previously estimated in the month of October. The report said the consumer sentiment index for October was upwardly revised to 63.8 from the preliminary estimate of 63.0.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2220398/

Friday, 27 October 2023

Oil Futures Settle At 2-week Low

Oil prices fell to a two-week low on Thursday as diplomatic efforts to stop Israel from a ground invasion of Gaza helped ease concerns about oil supplies.

Recent data showing a surge in U.S. crude inventories, and concerns about interest rates too weighed on oil prices.

West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures for December ended lower by $2.18 or about 2.6% at $83.21 a barrel.

Brent crude futures settled at $87.93 a barrel, down $2.20 or about 2.44%.

On Wednesday, data from U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed crude inventory increased by 1.372-million-barrel last week, as against forecast for a drop of 0.45 million barrels.

Gasoline inventory rose by 0.156 million barrels last week, as against forecast for a decline of 1.266 million barrels, while distillate stockpiles dropped by 1.686 million barrels, slightly lower than an expected drop of 1.75 million barrels.

"Oil prices remain under pressure on global growth concerns and as oil flows remain undisturbed as the Israel-Hamas war rages," says Edward Moya, Senior Market Analyst at OANDA.

"The crude demand outlook did not get any favors from the ECB decision that emphasized that the economy is weak and after a plethora of US economic data points suggest that this is as good as it gets regarding the economy," Moya adds.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2220317/

Treasuries Move Sharply Higher Despite Largely Upbeat Economic Data

Treasuries showed a significant move to the upside during trading on Thursday, offsetting the sharp pullback seen over the course of the previous session.

Bond priced moved modestly higher in early trading and climbed more firmly into positive territory as the day progressed. Subsequently, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, tumbled 10.8 basis points at 4.845 percent.

The rally by treasuries came despite the release of a largely upbeat batch of U.S. economic data, including a Commerce Department report showing GDP soared by more than expected in the third quarter of 2023.

The Commerce Department said GDP spiked by 4.9 percent in the third quarter after jumping by 2.1 percent in the second quarter. Economists had expected GDP to surge by 4.2 percent.

The stronger than expected GDP growth partly reflected a surge in consumer spending, which soared by 4.0 percent in the third quarter after climbing by 0.8 percent in the second quarter.

Treasuries may have befitted from the release of a Labor Department showing a modest rebound in first-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits in the week ended October 21st.

The report said initial jobless claims rose to 210,000, an increase of 10,000 from the previous week's revised level of 200,000.

Economists had expected jobless claims to rise to 208,000 from the 198,000 originally reported for the previous week.

The uptick came after jobless claims fell to their lowest level since hitting 199,000 in the week ended January 28th in the previous week.

Bond prices saw further upside after the Treasury Department revealed this month's auction of $38 billion worth of seven-year notes attracted above average demand.

The seven-year note auction drew a high yield of 4.908 percent and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.70, while the ten previous seven-year note auctions had an average bid-to-cover ratio of 2.51.

The bid-to-cover ratio is a measure of demand that indicates the amount of bids for each dollar worth of securities being sold.

Earlier this week, the Treasury revealed this month's auctions of $51 billion worth of two-year notes and $52 billion worth of five-year notes attracted below average demand.

The Commerce Department's report on personal income and spending in September is likely to be in focus on Friday, as it includes readings on inflation said to be preferred by the Federal Reserve.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2220316/

Seven-Year Note Auction Attracts Above Average Demand

Finishing off this week's series of announcements of the results of its long-term securities auctions, the Treasury Department revealed on Thursday that this month's auction of $38 billion worth of seven-year notes attracted above average demand.

The seven-year note auction drew a high yield of 4.908 percent and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.70.

Last month, the Treasury sold $37 billion worth of seven-year notes, drawing a high yield of 4.673 percent and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.47.

The bid-to-cover ratio is a measure of demand that indicates the amount of bids for each dollar worth of securities being sold.

The ten previous seven-year note auctions had an average bid-to-cover ratio of 2.51.

Earlier this week, the Treasury revealed this month's auctions of $51 billion worth of two-year notes and $52 billion worth of five-year notes attracted below average demand.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2220314/

Thursday, 26 October 2023

South Korea GDP Data Due On Thursday

South Korea will on Thursday release preliminary Q3 numbers for gross domestic product, highlighting a busy day for Asia-Pacific economic activity.

GDP is expected to rise 0.5 percent on quarter and 1.1 percent on year after adding 0.6 percent on quarter and 0.9 percent on year in the three months prior.

Japan will provide September figures for producer prices, with forecasts suggesting an increase of 2.0 percent on year, easing from 2.1 percent in August.

Australia will see Q3 data for import and export prices; in the previous three months, import prices fell 0.8 percent on quarter and export prices tumbled an annual 8.5 percent.

Singapore will release September numbers for industrial production and Q3 data for unemployment. Industrial production is expected to jump 8.3 percent on month and fall 1.8 percent on year after slumping 10.5 percent on month and 12.1 percent on year in August. The jobless rate in Q2 was 1.9 percent.

Hong Kong will provide September figures for imports, exports and trade balance. In August, imports were down 0.3 percent on month and exports fell 3.7 percent for a trade deficit of HKD25.6 billion.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2220224/

Oil Futures Settle Sharply Higher

Oil futures settled higher on Wednesday, snapping a three-day losing streak, amid likely disruptions in supply due to the tensions in the Middle East.

Weak economic data from the euro area, and data showing an increase in U.S. crude inventories in the week ended October 20, limited oil's upside.

West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures for November ended higher by $1.65 or about 1.97% at $85.39 a barrel.

Brent crude futures settled at $90.13 a barrel, gaining $2.06 or about 2.34%.

Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed crude inventory increased by 1.372 million barrel last week, as against forecast for a drop of 0.45 million barrels.

Gasoline inventory rose by 0.156 million barrels last week, as against forecast for a decline of 1.266 million barrels, while distillate stockpiles dropped by 1.686 million barrels, slightly lower than an expected drop of 1.75 million barrels.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2220223/

Gold Futures Settle Modestly Higher Ahead Of Key Economic Data

Gold prices climbed higher on Wednesday on safe-haven appeal amid the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

Investors kept a wary eye on the situation in the Middle East amidst reports of an imminent ground invasion of Gaza by Israel.

A stronger dollar, and higher bond yields limited the yellow metal's upside.

The dollar index climbed to 106.53, after exhibiting weakness in the Asian session.

Gold futures for December ended higher by $8.80 at $1,994.90 an ounce.

Silver futures for December ended down $0.109 at $23.007 an ounce, while Copper futures for December settled at $3.5910 per pound, down $0.0330 from the previous close.

Edward Moya, Senior Market Analyst at OANDA says, "Gold should remain volatile over the next week, with downside potentially targeting the $1950 level and major resistance residing at the psychological $2000 level."

The Commerce Department said new home sales soared by 12.3% to an annual rate of 759,000 in September after plunging by 8.2% to a revised rate of 676,000 in August.

Economists had expected new home sales to climb by 0.7% to an annual rate of 680,000 from the 675,000 originally reported for the previous month.

With the much bigger than expected increase, new home sales reached their highest annual rate since hitting 773,000 in February 2022.

Amid lingering fears over further policy tightening by the Federal Reserve, traders looked ahead to the release of the U.S. GDP numbers for the third quarter on Thursday and the PCE price index on Friday for further direction.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2220221/

Wednesday, 25 October 2023

Australian Dollar Jumps on Shocker CPI Data. Will AUD/USD Go Higher on an RBA Hike?

The Australian Dollar leapt higher immediately after headline CPI printed at 5.4% year-on-year to the end of September, adding to speculation of a hike by the RBA. Will AUD/USD rally? Via DailyFX - Market News https://www.dailyfx.com

Treasuries Close Little Changed Following Lackluster Session

Following the significant turnaround seen over the course of the previous session, treasuries turned in a relatively lackluster performance during trading on Tuesday.

Bond prices fluctuated as the day progressed, eventually ending the session little changed. Subsequently, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, crept up by less than a basis point at 4.840 percent.

The choppy trading on the day came as traders seemed reluctant to make significant moves amid a lack of major U.S. economic data.

On Friday, the Commerce Department is due to release its report on personal income and spending, which includes readings on inflation said to be preferred by the Federal Reserve.

Traders are also likely to keep an eye on reports on durable goods orders, pending home sales and initial jobless claims in the coming days.

Treasuries remained little changed after the Treasury Department revealed this month's auction of $51 billion worth of two-year notes attracted below average demand.

The two-year note auction drew a high yield of 5.055 percent and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.64, while the ten previous two-year note auctions had an average bid-to-cover ratio of 2.76.

The bid-to-cover ratio is a measure of demand that indicates the amount of bids for each dollar worth of securities being sold.

A report on new home sales in the month of September may attract some attention on Wednesday, although trading activity may remain subdued.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2220171/

Oil Futures Settle Sharply Lower On Demand Concerns

Crude oil prices fell sharply on Tuesday, extending losses to a third straight session, amid concerns about the outlook for energy demand after data showed contraction in Australian and Japanese business activity in the month of October.

Eurozone business activity contracted as well this month. UK's private sector activity contracted and a measure of German consumer confidence weakened, raising concerns over fuel demand.

The dollar's rally weighed as well on oil prices.

West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures for December ended lower by $1.75 or about 2.1% at $83.74 a barrel.

Brent crude futures settled at $88.07 a barrel, giving up $1.76 or about 2%.

"Crude prices are lower as a strong dollar emerged after a mixed round of global flash PMIs. It looks like the US economy refuses to break and that means the risks of more tightening and that the higher for longer mantra will last a while longer," says Edward Moya, Senior Market Analyst at OANDA.

"Oil is modestly lower and that could continue if the Israel-Hamas war continues to have diplomacy at work," Moya adds.

Investors await weekly inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) and U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). The API data is due later today, while EIA's report is due Wednesday morning.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2220170/

Gold Futures Settle Slightly Lower As Dollar Rallies

Gold futures settled slightly lower on Tuesday as the commodity's safe-haven appeal dimmed a bit amid reports the U.S. is pressing Israel to delay its ground offensive in the Gaza strip.

Data showing an improvement in U.S. private sector output supported the case for the interest rates to stay restrictive.

A strong dollar weighed as well on the yellow metal. The dollar index climbed to 106.32, gaining about 0.75%.

Gold futures for December ended lower by $1.70 at $1,986.10 an ounce, recovering well from the session's low of $1,964.60 an ounce.

Silver futures for December ended down $0.094 at $23.116 an ounce, while Copper futures for December ended with a gain of $0.0375 at $3.6240 per pound.

"Gold's marathon run to record territory clearly 'hit the wall' as the Israel-Hamas war has not yet led to a wider conflict," says Edward Moya, Senior Market Analyst at OANDA.

The S&P Global US Composite PMI rose to 51.0 in October 2023, up from September's 50.2, signaling an acceleration in the pace of private sector output expansion, a preliminary estimate showed.

The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for the U.S. rose to 50 in October 2023 from 49.8 in September, beating forecasts of 49.5, preliminary estimates showed.

Investors await some crucial U.S. economic data this week, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting next week, for directional clues.

This week, data on U.S. new home sales, durable goods orders, pending home sales, jobless claims, and third-quarter GDP are due. The data on personal income and spending is due as well.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2220169/

Tuesday, 24 October 2023

Euro Jumps on Treasury Yield Slide and a Technical Break. Higher EUR/USD?

The Euro appears to have broken the descending trend as the US Dollar faces a test of resolve with Treasury yields dipping lower. If the Euro holds ground, will EUR/USD rally? Via DailyFX - Market News https://www.dailyfx.com

Oil Futures Settle Sharply Lower

Crude oil prices fell sharply on Monday amid easing concerns about oil supply on hopes the diplomatic efforts in the Middle East will help prevent the conflict there from escalating into a bigger regional war.

According to reports, Israel has agreed to hold off its attack on Hamas following pressure from the U.S.

The drop in oil prices comes amidst a delay in a ground level attack that is feared to widen the scope of the conflict.

West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures for November settled at $85.49, down $2.59, or about 2.94%.

Brent crude futures ended down $2.33, or about 2.5%, at $89.83 a barrel.

"Crude prices are lower as Israel has tentatively held off the highly telegraphed ground invasion of Gaza. The situation remains tense but the latest headlines don't support an immediate escalation," says Edward Moya, Senior Market Analyst at OANDA. "Until crude flows are disrupted, it might take a significant escalation in the war for oil prices to surge," he adds.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2220095/

Gold Futures Settle Lower

Gold prices drifted lower on Monday with investors monitoring the developments in the Middle East, and looking ahead to some crucial U.S. economic data.

The dollar's weakness, and a drop in U.S. bond yields helped limit the yellow metal's downside.

The dollar index dropped to 106.60, losing about 0.55%.

Gold futures for December ended down $6.60 at $1,987.80 an ounce.

Silver futures for December settled lower by $0.294 at $23.210 an ounce, while Copper futures for December ended up $0.0235 at $3.5865 per pound.

"Gold prices are slightly softer after a lack of an escalation in the Middle East. It seems the surge above the $2000 level won't attract momentum buying until it becomes clear that the geopolitical risks won't be cooling," says Edward Moya, Senior Market Analyst at OANDA.

"The surge in Treasury yields are typically bad news for gold, but confidence is growing that these high rates will break large parts of the economy. The peak in rates might not be determined by US growth exceptionalism, but the supply/demand imbalances with Treasuries," adds Moya.

On Friday, the Commerce Department is due to release its report on personal income and spending, which includes readings on inflation said to be preferred by the Federal Reserve.

Traders are also likely to keep an eye on reports on new home sales, durable goods orders, pending home sales and initial jobless claims in the coming days.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2220093/

Monday, 23 October 2023

Japanese Yen Eyes New Lows as Markets Speculate on BoJ Action. Intervention Ahead?

The Japanese Yen is facing scrutiny to start the week with USD/JPY edging toward prior peaks on growing unease around potential BoJ intervention. If USD/JPY pops, will the bank be selling? Via DailyFX - Market News https://www.dailyfx.com

Crude Oil Correction in Play; Natural Gas’ Rebound May Not be Over

Crude oil’s downward correction that started a few weeks ago may not be over just yet. Natural gas has retreated following the bullish break earlier this month. How much more downside for crude oil and natural gas? Via DailyFX - Market News https://www.dailyfx.com

Singapore Inflation Data Due On Monday

Singapore will on Monday release September figures for consumer prices, highlighting a light day for Asia-Pacific economic activity.

Overall inflation is expected to rise 4.2 percent on year, up from 4.0 percent in August. Core CPI is called higher by an annual 3.1 percent, easing from 3.4 percent in the previous month.

Taiwan will provide September numbers for industrial production and unemployment. In August, industrial production was down 10.53 percent on year and the jobless rate was 3.42 percent.

Finally, the markets in New Zealand (Labor Day), Hong Kong (Chung Yeung Day) and Thailand (Chulalongkorn) are closed on Monday and will re-open on Tuesday.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2220054/

Gold Price Slips After Stellar Rally Despite Lofty Treasury Yields. Higher XAU/USD?

The gold price pulled back to start the week after notching a five-week peak last Friday. Higher Treasury yields and US Dollar look to have been overrun by swirling risks elsewhere. Via DailyFX - Market News https://www.dailyfx.com

Sunday, 22 October 2023

Markets Week Ahead: S&P 500, Gold, US Dollar; Powell, ECB, BoC, Australia CPI, Germany Ifo, UK jobs

Conflict in Middle East and US earnings season are likely to be key drivers of broader market sentiment in the coming week. Currency markets would be watching for cues from Powell speech, European Central Bank and Bank of Canada interest rate decisions. Via DailyFX - Market News https://www.dailyfx.com

Saturday, 21 October 2023

U.S. Dollar Gives Back Ground After Hitting 150 Yen

After seeing some strength overnight, the value of the U.S. dollar has moved modestly lower over the course of trading on Friday.

Currently, the U.S. dollar index is down 0.09 points or 0.1 percent at 106.16 after reaching a 106.42 in the early morning.

The greenback reached as high as 150 yen but has pulled back to 149.84 amid concerns about intervention by Japanese monetary officials. Against the euro, the dollar is valued at $1.0593 compared to yesterday's $1.0582.

Traders also kept an eye on activity in the bond market, with treasury yields giving back ground after once again reaching their highest levels in over sixteen years on Thursday.

The recent advance by yields reflects continued worries about the outlook for interest rates, with the Federal Reserve signaling rates will remain higher for longer than previously anticipated.

During a speech on Thursday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell described inflation as "still too high" and warned additional monetary policy tightening may be needed.

Powell also reiterated Fed officials are willing to keeping policy restrictive until they are confident inflation is on a downward path.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2220053/

Gold Reaches Highest Levels In Well Over Two Months

The price of gold moved to the upside during trading on Friday, extending the upward trend seen over the past several sessions.

Gold for December delivery climbed $13.90 or 0.7 percent to $1,994.40 an ounce, ending the session at its highest closing level in well over two months.

The precious metal continued to benefit from its appeal as a safe haven amid fears the Israel-Hamas war may escalate into a broader regional crisis.

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant told troops gathered at the Gaza border on Thursday that they would soon see the Palestinian enclave "from inside."

Additionally, reports emerged that U.S. troops are being targeted at several military bases across Iraq and Syria, while a U.S. Navy warship destroyed cruise missiles and drones fired toward Israel by Houthi rebels in Yemen.

Traders also kept an eye on activity in the bond market, with treasury yields giving back ground after once again reaching their highest levels in over sixteen years on Thursday.

The recent advance by yields reflects continued worries about the outlook for interest rates, with the Federal Reserve signaling rates will remain higher for longer than previously anticipated.

During a speech on Thursday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell described inflation as "still too high" and warned additional monetary policy tightening may be needed.

Powell also reiterated Fed officials are willing to keeping policy restrictive until they are confident inflation is on a downward path.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2220050/

Friday, 20 October 2023

Oil Futures Recover From Early Losses, Settle Notably Higher

Crude oil futures settled higher on Thursday, recovering from early losses, as Israel reportedly prepared to move into Gaza to fight against Hamas.

Oil prices fell earlier in the session, after the United States' decision to ease crude sanctions against Venezuela offset potential supply disruptions amid the tensions in the Middle East.

Also, reports suggest that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is not inclined to take up member Iran's call for an oil embargo on Israel after a huge explosion at a Gaza hospital.

West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures for November ended higher by $1.05 or about 1.2% at $89.37 a barrel.

Brent crude futures settled at $92.38 a barrel, up $0.88 or about 1%.

A weak dollar supported oil prices. The dollar eased after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell failed to signal a hike at the central bank's rate decision, due early next month.

The dollar index dropped to a low of 105.98 before recovering to around 106.19, but still remained well below the unchanged line.

In economic news, data from the Labor Department showed initial jobless claims fell to 198,000 in the week ended October 14th, down 13,000 from the previous week's revised level of 211,000. Economists had expected jobless claims to inch up to 212,000 from the 209,00 originally reported for the previous week.

A report released by the National Association of Realtors on Thursday showed a notable decrease in U.S. existing home sales in the month of September. Existing home sales decreased for the fourth consecutive month, falling to their lowest level since October 2010.

A reading on leading U.S. economic indicators fell by more than expected in the month of September, according to a report released by the Conference Board on Thursday. The Conference Board said its leading economic index slid by 0.7% in September after falling by a revised 0.5% in August.


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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2219994/

Ten-Year Yield Reaches New Sixteen-Year Closing High

Treasuries fluctuated over the course of the trading session on Thursday but largely maintained a negative bias throughout the day.

Bond prices came under pressure going into the close of trading, closing firmly negative. Subsequently, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, climbed 8.4 basis points to 4.988 percent.

The ten-year yield closed higher for the fourth consecutive session, once again reaching its highest closing level in over sixteen years.

The continued weakness in the bond market came as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivered highly anticipated remarks at an Economic Club of New York luncheon,

Powell argued in prepared remarks that inflation is "still too high" and warned additional monetary policy tightening may be needed.

Powell noted that shorter-term measures of core inflation over the most recent three and six months are now running below 3 percent but cautioned these shorter-term measures are often volatile.

"In any case, inflation is still too high, and a few months of good data are only the beginning of what it will take to build confidence that inflation is moving down sustainably toward our goal," Powell said. "We cannot yet know how long these lower readings will persist, or where inflation will settle over coming quarters."

He added, "While the path is likely to be bumpy and take some time, my colleagues and I are united in our commitment to bringing inflation down sustainably to 2 percent."

Powell described the current stance of monetary policy as "restrictive" and reiterated Fed officials are willing to keeping policy restrictive until they are confident inflation is on a downward path.

Citing recent data showing the resilience of economic growth and demand for labor, Powell also warned additional monetary policy tightening could be needed.

"Additional evidence of persistently above-trend growth, or that tightness in the labor market is no longer easing, could put further progress on inflation at risk and could warrant further tightening of monetary policy," he said.

Powell also addressed tightening financial conditions amid a recent increase in longer-term bond yields and said the Fed remains attentive to these developments, because persistent changes in financial conditions can have implications for the path of monetary policy.

Treasuries also moved lower following the release of a Labor Department report showing initial jobless claims unexpectedly declined to a nearly nine-month low in the week ended October 14th.

The report said initial jobless claims fell to 198,000, a decrease of 13,000 from the previous week's revised level of 211,000.

Economists had expected jobless claims to inch up to 212,000 from the 209,000 originally reported for the previous week.

With the unexpected dip, jobless claims dropped to their lowest level since hitting 194,000 in the week ended January 21st.


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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2219993/

Gold Futures Settle Higher As Dollar Sheds Ground

Gold prices surged higher on Thursday on safe-haven buying amid an escalation in tensions in the Middle East, and lingering worries about global economic slowdown and interest rates.

Gold futures for December ended higher by $12.20 or about 0.6% at $1,980.50 an ounce.

Silver futures for December ended down $0.068 at $23.031 an ounce, while Copper futures for December settled at $3.6010 per pound, gaining $0.0140.

In his speech at an Economic Club of New York luncheon, Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell argued in prepared remarks that inflation is "still too high" and warned additional monetary policy tightening may be needed.

Powell noted that shorter-term measures of core inflation over the most recent three and six months are now running below 3% but cautioned these shorter-term measures are often volatile.

Powell also addressed tightening financial conditions amid a recent increase in longer-term bond yields and said the Fed remains attentive to these developments, because persistent changes in financial conditions can have implications for the path of monetary policy.

In economic releases, data from the Labor Department showed initial jobless claims fell to 198,000 in the week ended October 14th, down 13,000 from the previous week's revised level of 211,000. Economists had expected jobless claims to inch up to 212,000 from the 209,00 originally reported for the previous week.

A report released by the National Association of Realtors on Thursday showed a notable decrease in U.S. existing home sales in the month of September. Existing home sales decreased for the fourth consecutive month, falling to their lowest level since October 2010.

A reading on leading U.S. economic indicators fell by more than expected in the month of September, according to a report released by the Conference Board on Thursday. The Conference Board said its leading economic index slid by 0.7% in September after falling by a revised 0.5% in August.


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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2219992/

Powell Says Inflation 'Still Too High,' Warns Of Additional Tightening

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivered highly anticipated remarks at an Economic Club of New York luncheon on Thursday, arguing that inflation is "still too high" and warning additional monetary policy tightening may be needed.

Powell noted that shorter-term measures of core inflation over the most recent three and six months are now running below 3 percent but cautioned these shorter-term measures are often volatile.

"In any case, inflation is still too high, and a few months of good data are only the beginning of what it will take to build confidence that inflation is moving down sustainably toward our goal," Powell said. "We cannot yet know how long these lower readings will persist, or where inflation will settle over coming quarters."

He added, "While the path is likely to be bumpy and take some time, my colleagues and I are united in our commitment to bringing inflation down sustainably to 2 percent."

Powell described the current stance of monetary policy as "restrictive" and reiterated Fed officials are willing to keeping policy restrictive until they are confident inflation is on a downward path.

Citing recent data showing the resilience of economic growth and demand for labor, Powell also warned additional monetary policy tightening could be needed.

"Additional evidence of persistently above-trend growth, or that tightness in the labor market is no longer easing, could put further progress on inflation at risk and could warrant further tightening of monetary policy," he said.

Powell also addressed tightening financial conditions amid a recent increase in longer-term bond yields and said the Fed remains attentive to these developments, because persistent changes in financial conditions can have implications for the path of monetary policy.

The Fed chief concluded by saying a range of uncertainties complicate the central bank's task of balancing the risk of tightening monetary policy too much against the risk of tightening too little.

"Doing too little could allow above-target inflation to become entrenched and ultimately require monetary policy to wring more persistent inflation from the economy at a high cost to employment," Powell said. Doing too much could also do unnecessary harm to the economy.

"Given the uncertainties and risks, and how far we have come, the Committee is proceeding carefully," he added. "We will make decisions about the extent of additional policy firming and how long policy will remain restrictive based on the totality of the incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks."

The Fed's next monetary policy meeting is scheduled for October 31-November, with CME Group's FedWatch Tool currently indicating a 97.0 percent chance the central bank will leave interest rates unchanged.


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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2219991/

Thursday, 19 October 2023

Australia Unemployment Data Due On Thursday

Australia will on Thursday release September jobless figures, highlighting a busy day for Asia-Pacific economic activity.

The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 3.7 percent, with the addition of 18,000 jobs following the gain of 64,900 jobs in August. The participation rate is seen steady at 67.0 percent.

Japan will provide September numbers for imports, exports and trade balance. Imports are expected to sink 12.8 percent on year after shedding 17.9 percent in August. Exports are called higher by an annual 3.1 percent after easing 0.8 percent in the previous month. The trade deficit is pegged at 425.0 billion yen following the 930.5 billion yen shortfall a month earlier.

The Bank of Korea will wrap up its monetary policy meeting and announce its decision on interest rates. The BoK is widely expected to keep its benchmark lending rate unchanged at 3.50 percent.

Malaysia will release September figures for imports, exports and trade balance. Imports are expected to slide 13.4 percent on year after tumbling 21.2 percent in August. Exports are tipped to fall an annual 17.1 percent after sinking 18.6 percent in the previous month. The trade surplus is expected to come in at 22.2 billion ringgit, up from 17.3 billion a month earlier.

Hong Kong will see September data for unemployment, with forecasts suggesting that the jobless rate will hold steady at 2.8 percent.

The central bank in Indonesia will conclude its monetary policy and announce its decision on interest rates. The benchmark lending rate (5.75 percent), lending facility rate (6.50 percent) and the deposit facility rate (5.00 percent) are all expected to see no change.


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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2219914/

Australian Dollar Drops on Mixed Jobs Data Ahead of CPI. Where to for AUD/USD?

The Australian Dollar slipped lower after employment data today revealed a tighten unemployment rate assisted by a lower participation rate. The RBA is now the focal point. Via DailyFX - Market News https://www.dailyfx.com

Oil Futures Settle Sharply Higher On Supply Concerns

Crude oil prices rose sharply on Wednesday amid rising concerns over supplies as geopolitical concerns escalated after a huge explosion at a Gaza hospital.

Data showing an improvement in Chinese economic growth supported oil prices. Official data showed China's GDP grew at a 4.9% annual pace in July-September, down from 6.3% in the previous quarter but above forecasts for a 4.4% increase.

Retail sales and industrial output figures for September also surprised on the upside, suggesting that Beijing's stimulus measures to prop up banking and property sectors are gaining traction.

West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures for November ended higher by $1.66 or about 1.9% at $88.32 a barrel.

Brent crude futures settled at $91.50 a barrel today, gaining $1.60 or about 1.8%.

Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed crude inventory in the U.S. fell by 4.491 million barrels in the week ended October 13, after rising by 10.176 million barrels a weak ago.

Tje EIA data showed gasoline stockpiles fell by 2.37 million barrels last week, while distillate stockpiles dropped 3.185 million barrels.

The American Petroleum Institute reported late Tuesday that U.S. crude stocks fell by about 4.4 million barrels in the week ended Oct. 13, in another sign of tight supplies.

Gasoline inventories dropped by 1.6 million barrels, while distillate inventories fell by about 610,000 barrels.


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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2219913/

Gold Futures Settle Notably Higher

Gold prices surged higher on Wednesday on safe-haven demand amid escalating tensions in the Middle East following a huge explosion at a Gaza hospital.

According to reports, a deadly missile attack on Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza killed several hundred people including women and children.

Hamas attributed the blast to an Israeli airstrike, but the Israeli military said it was not involved and the explosion was caused by a misfired Palestinian rocket.

Gold prices advanced despite the dollar staying fairly steady as recent strong retails and industrial production data raised expectations the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer.

The dollar index, which climbed to 106.74, eased a bit to 106.41, but was still fairly well above the flat line.

Gold futures for December ended higher by $32.60 at $1,968.30 an ounce.

Silver futures for December ended up $0.075 at $23.099 an ounce, while Copper futures for December settled lower by $0.0035 at $3.5785 per pound.

"Everyone on Wall Street is becoming the gold guy in Austin Powers. "I love gold", Goldmember, the fictional villain's key quote is becoming the mantra for many traders," says Edward Moya, Senior Market Analyst at OANDA. Moya adds that gold is rallying on geopolitical risks, expected Diwali demand, bond market stress, and stock market selling pressure. "The path to $2000 is clearly in play, but so might a move back to record territory," he says.

On the U.S. economic front, a report released by the Commerce Department showed housing starts spiked by 7% to an annual rate of 1.358 million in September after plunging by 12.5% to a revised rate of 1.269 million in August.

Economists had expected housing starts to jump to a rate of 1.380 million from the 1.283 million originally reported for the previous month.

Meanwhile, the report said building permits tumbled by 4.4% to an annual rate of 1.475 million in September after surging by 6.8% to a revised rate of 1.541 million in August.

Building permits, an indicator of future housing demand, were expected to decrease to a rate of 1.450 million from the 1.543 million originally reported for the previous month.


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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2219912/

Wednesday, 18 October 2023

Australia Dollar Jumps After China GDP Beat; What’s Next for AUD/USD?

AUD/USD jumped after the Chinese economy grew more than expected in the July-September quarter. What is the outlook and the key levels to watch in AUD/USD? Via DailyFX - Market News https://www.dailyfx.com

Oil Futures Settle Flat

Crude oil futures settled flat on Tuesday after a somewhat lackluster session as investors continued to track the developments on the geopolitical front and weighing the outlook for global demand and supply.

West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures for November ended at $86.66 a barrel, unchanged from the previous close.

Brent crude futures settled higher by $0.25 at $89.90 a barrel.

Markets are awaiting U.S. President Joe Biden's visit to Israel on Wednesday. Biden is visiting Israel to show solidarity and try to influence the conduct of its war against Hamas.

Amid concerns about slowing global growth, traders also await a slew of Chinese data, including reports on GDP, retail sales and industrial production on Wednesday for direction.

Meanwhile, in a significant announcement, Libya said it would ramp up its oil production to two million barrels per day before the close of the decade.

Investors are also awaiting weekly oil reports from the American Petroleum Institute (API) and U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).


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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2219858/

Gold Price Hangs Tough as Treasury Yields Surge and US Dollar Firms. Higher XAU/USD?

The gold price remains buoyant on flight to safety flows from geopolitical concerns, but the macroeconomic picture is going in the other direction. Will XAU/USD maintain its strength? Via DailyFX - Market News https://www.dailyfx.com

Gold Futures Settle Marginally Up

Gold futures settled slightly higher on Tuesday as investors assessed the latest batch of economic data and the likely monetary policy path of the Federal Reserve.

A subdued dollar supported the yellow metal. The dollar index, which dropped to 106.02, recovered to 106.20, down just marginally from the previous close.

Gold futures for December ended higher by $1.40 at $1,935.70 an ounce.

Silver futures for December ended up $0.259 at $23.024 an ounce, while Copper futures for December settled at $3.5785 per pound, down $0.0035 from the previous close.

On the economic front, data showed U.S. retail sales advanced 0.7% month-on-month in September, following an upwardly revised 0.8% increase in August. On yearly basis, retail sales increased 3.8% in September, the highest in seven months. In August, retail sales increased by an upwardly revised 2.9%.

Industrial production in the US went up 0.3% month-over-month in September, beating expectations of a flat reading. Manufacturing output, which accounts for 78% of total production, rose 0.4%, above forecasts of a 0.1% increase, after a 0.1% fall in the previous month.

Investors continued to track geopolitical news. The Israel-Hamas war continues despite international messages of caution.

Heavy shelling was reported near civilian shelters in Gaza ahead of U.S. President Joe Biden's visit to Israel on Wednesday to show solidarity.

Meanwhile, after concluding his meeting with the U.S Secretary of State Antony Blinken, the defense minister of Israel Yoav Gallant said that "this will be a long war".


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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2219857/

Tuesday, 17 October 2023

Is the Worst Over for Gold/Silver? XAU/USD, XAG/USD Price Setups

Escalating tensions in the Middle East have boosted precious metals. Does this mean the worst over for gold and silver? Find out what is the outlook and what are the key levels to watch. Via DailyFX - Market News https://www.dailyfx.com

Oil Futures Settle Lower As Geopolitical Concerns Weigh

Crude oil prices fell on Monday, retreating after rising sharply in the previous session, amid fears the ongoing Israel-Hamas war might fuel a wider conflict in the Middle East.

Expectations that oil supply situation will improve if US sanctions on Venezuela could ease in the event of Caraca agreeing to an election date.

West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures for November ended down $1.03 or about 1.2% at $86.66 a barrel.

Brent crude futures settled at $89.65 per pound, down $1.24 or about 1.4% from the previous close.

Concerns about the situation in the Middle East weigh as Inflation is reportedly preparing ground offensive in Gaza.

Iran warned on Saturday that failure to stop Israel's "war crimes and genocide" could have "far-reaching consequences."

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken today said Washington is "actively working" to ensure that humanitarian assistance can get into Gaza as the Hamas-Israel conflict continued for the 10th consecutive day.

The U.S. and its allies are ratcheting up efforts to prevent the war between Israel and Hamas from engulfing the wider region.


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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2219816/

New Zealand Dollar Falls After Inflation Data, but NZD/USD Remains Above Key Support

The New Zealand Dollar weakened after local inflation data cooled hawkish RBNZ policy expectations. Even so, NZD/USD remains above key support with a neutral near-term technical bias. Via DailyFX - Market News https://www.dailyfx.com

Gold Futures Settle Lower

Gold futures settled lower on Monday as Treasury yields rose on lingering concerns about inflation.

A weak dollar helped limit the bullion's downside. The dollar index dropped to 106.25, losing about 0.37%.

Investors are looking ahead to data on U.S. retail sales, industrial production, housing starts and home sales due this week.

Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak at the Economic Club of New York.

Gold futures for December ended lower by $7.20 at $1,934.30 an ounce.

Silver futures for December ended down $0.130 at $22.765 an ounce, while Copper futures for December settled at $3.5820 per pound, gaining $0.0110.

In U.S. economic news, the New York Federal Reserve released a report showing a downturn in regional manufacturing activity in the month of October.

The New York Fed said its general business conditions index fell to a negative 4.6 in October from a positive 1.9 in September, with a negative reading indicating a contraction in activity. Economists had expected the index to drop to a negative 7.0.


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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2219815/

Monday, 16 October 2023

Japan Industrial Production Data Due On Monday

Japan will on Monday see final August numbers for industrial production, highlighting a light day for Asia-Pacific economic activity. Output is called flat on month after sinking 1.8 percent in July.

New Zealand will see September results for the Performance of Services Index from BusinessNZ; in August, the index score was 47.1.

Indonesia will provide September figures for imports, exports and trade balance. In August, imports were down 14.77 percent on year and exports stumbled an annual 21.21 percent for a trade surplus of $3.12 billion.


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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2219760/

Australian Dollar Bumps Up but US Dollar Moves Might be Key. Will AUD/USD Rally?

The Australian Dollar nudged higher to start the week with the US Dollar easing a touch as markets assess elevated Treasury yields and a Middle East conflict. Where to for AUD/USD. Via DailyFX - Market News https://www.dailyfx.com

Sunday, 15 October 2023

Markets Week Ahead: Gold, Crude Oil, Geopolitical Tensions, US Dollar, Fed, China GDP

Gold prices soared in the best week since the middle of March, crude oil also outperformed amid geopolitical volatility. Ahead, all eyes are on a speech from Jerome Powell and Chinese GDP data. What else is in store for markets ahead? Via DailyFX - Market News https://www.dailyfx.com

Saturday, 14 October 2023

Treasuries Move Back To The Upside After Yesterday's Pullback

Following the sharp pullback seen in the previous session, treasuries showed a strong move back to the upside during trading on Friday.

Bond prices gave back some ground after an early advance but remained firmly positive. Subsequently, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, slumped 8.3 basis points to 4.629 percent.

The early strength among treasuries came after the Labor Department released a report this morning showing only a slight uptick in U.S. import prices.

The Labor Department said import prices crept up by 0.1 percent in September after climbing by an upwardly revised 0.6 percent in August.

Economists had expected the pace of import price growth to match the 0.5 percent increase originally reported for the previous month.

Meanwhile, the report said export prices advanced by 0.7 percent in September after jumping by a downwardly revised 1.1 percent in August.

Export prices were expected to climb by 0.6 percent compared to the 1.3 percent surge originally reported for the previous month.

However, treasuries pulled back off their highs after a report from the University of Michigan showed a surge in consumers' near-term inflation expectations.

The report showed year-ahead inflation expectations jumped to 3.8 percent in October from 3.2 percent in September, reaching the highest level since May.

Long-run inflation expectations also rose to 3.0 percent in October from 2.8 percent in September but remained within the narrow 2.9-3.1 percent range seen for 25 of the last 27 months.

Next week's trading may be impacted by reaction to latest U.S. economic data, including reports on retail sales, industrial production, housing starts and existing home sales.


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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2219757/

Canadian Dollar Climbs As Oil Prices Soar

The Canadian dollar advanced against its major counterparts in the New York session on Friday, as oil prices surged following the imposition of sanctions by the U.S. on shipping companies that violated the G7's price cap.

Crude for November delivery rose $3.43 to 86.34 per barrel.

The U.S. imposed sanctions on owners of tankers, which transported Russian crude oil above the West's price cap of $60 a barrel.

The loonie strengthened to a 10-day high of 1.4329 against the euro and a fresh 2-week high of 0.8584 against the aussie, from its early lows of 1.4439 and 0.8664, respectively.

The loonie rose to 1.3636 against the greenback and 109.74 against the yen, up from an early low of 1.3694 and a 2-day low of 109.29, respectively.

The currency is seen facing resistance around 1.41 against the euro, 0.84 against the aussie, 1.34 against the greenback and 113.00 against the yen.


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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2219755/

Friday, 13 October 2023

*New Zealand Sep Business NZ PMI 45.3 Vs. 46.1 In August

New Zealand Sep Business NZ PMI 45.3 Vs. 46.1 In August


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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2219689/

US Dollar Post-CPI Rally May Reverse, EUR/USD Creeping Higher

The US dollar rallied sharply Thursday after a marginally higher-than-expected US inflation reading was released. Is a 0.1% miss on US headline CPI data that bad? Via DailyFX - Market News https://www.dailyfx.com

Is the Rebound in Crude Oil Over? Natural Gas Holds Gains After Bullish Break

Crude oil’s recent sharp retreat raises the question if the rebound that started in September is over. Find out what is does the retreat mean in the context of the wider trend. Natural gas appears to be holding gains following the recent bullish break. Via DailyFX - Market News https://www.dailyfx.com

Dollar Gains Against Major Counterparts After Inflation Data

The U.S. dollar firmed against its major counterparts on Thursday as data showing a slightly bigger than expected increase in U.S. consumer prices in the month of September raised concerns the Federal Reserve will hold rates higher for longer.

Data from the Labor Department showed that the consumer price index climbed by 0.4% in September after increasing by 0.6% in August. Economists had expected consumer prices to rise by 0.3%.

The report also said the annual rate of consumer price growth was unchanged at 3.7%, while the annual rate of core consumer price growth slowed to 4.1% in September from 4.3% in August.

A separate report showed that first-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits came in at 209,000, in the week ended October 7, unchanged compared to the previous week's revised level. Economists had expected jobless claims to inch up to 210,000 from the 207,000 originally reported for the previous week.

The dollar index strengthened to 106.60, gaining nearly 0.75%.

Against the Euro, the dollar firmed to 1.0531 from 1.0619, gaining more than 0.8%. Against Pound Sterling, the dollar is trading at 1.2176, up sharply from the previous close of 1.2314.

The Japanese currency is weak at 149.80 yen a dollar, easing from 149.17 a dollar. The dollar is up sharply against the Aussie at 0.6316, gaining more than 1.5% from 0.6414.

The Swiss franc has weakened to CHF 0.9084 from CHF 0.9020, while the Loonie is weak at C$ 1.3691 a dollar, dropping from C$ 1.3594.


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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2219688/

Thirty-Year Bond Auction Attracts Average Demand

The Treasury Department finished off this week's series of announcements of the results of its long-term securities auctions on Thursday, revealing this month's sale of $20 billion worth of thirty-year bonds attracted average demand.

The thirty-year bond auction drew a high yield of 4.837 percent and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.35.

Last month, the Treasury also sold $20 billion worth of thirty-year bonds, drawing a high yield of 4.345 percent and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.46.

The bid-to-cover ratio is a measure of demand that indicates the amount of bids for each dollar worth of securities being sold.

The ten previous thirty-year bond auctions had an average bid-to-cover ratio of 2.38.

The Treasury also announced the details of this month's twenty-year bond auction on Thursday, revealing plans to sell $13 billion worth of twenty-year bonds. The results of the auction will be announced next Wednesday.

Last month, the Treasury also sold $13 billion worth of twenty-year bonds, with the sale attracting above average demand.

The Treasury revealed earlier this week that this month's auction of $46 billion worth of three-year notes attracted below average demand, while this month's auction of $35 billion worth of ten-year notes attracted modestly above average demand.


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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2219684/

Thursday, 12 October 2023

Is Euro’s Downtrend Over? EUR/USD, EUR/AUD, EUR/NZD Price Setups

The euro appears to have garnered some cushion for now, thanks to the apparent shift in Fed rhetoric. The question then comes up is this a game changer for EUR/USD? What about EUR/AUD and EUR/NZD? Via DailyFX - Market News https://www.dailyfx.com

Dollar Stays Weak Against Major Rivals

The U.S. dollar stayed weak against most of its major counterparts on Wednesday as traders continued to speculate the Federal Reserve's take on interest rates.

The dollar regained lost ground a little before the release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve's latest monetary policy meeting, but faltered subsequently.

The minutes said a majority of participants expect one more interest rate hike will likely be appropriate.

The projections provided following the meeting forecast one more rate hike before the end of the year, although the minutes noted some officials judged it likely that no further increases would be warranted.

"All participants agreed that the Committee was in a position to proceed carefully and that policy decisions at every meeting would continue to be based on the totality of incoming information and its implications for the economic outlook as well as the balance of risks," the Fed said.

The minutes said all participants agreed that policy should remain restrictive for some time until the Fed is confident that inflation is moving down sustainably toward its 2% objective.

Data from the Labor Department said its producer price index for final demand climbed by 0.5% in September after advancing by 0.7% in August. Economists had expected prices to rise by 0.4%.

The report also said the annual rate of producer price growth accelerated to 2.2% in September from a revised 2% in August. Economists had expected the pace of price growth to come in unchanged compared to the 1.6 percent originally reported for the previous month.

On Thursday, the Labor Department is scheduled to release its more closely watched report on consumer price inflation in the month of September.

The dollar index climbed to 106.01 from a low of 105.56, but retreated subsequently to 105.72, down by about 0.1% from the previous close.

Against the Euro, the dollar is down at 1.0618, and against Pound Sterling, it is weak at 1.2315.

The dollar is up against the Japanese currency, fetching 149.19 yen a unit. The Aussie is weak against the dollar with the AUD/USD at 0.6413.

Against Swiss franc, the dollar has eased to CHF 0.9021, and against the Loonie, is up marginally at C$ 1.395.


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US Dollar Slides on Fed Tilt but CPI Fears Linger. Will Treasury Yields Go Lower?

The US Dollar has been losing ground this week as the market ponders the outlook for the Federal Reserve after less hawkish commentary and FOMC minutes. Will USD sink further? Via DailyFX - Market News https://www.dailyfx.com

Crude Oil Futures Settle Sharply Lower

Crude oil futures settled lower on Wednesday, extending losses from the previous session, as Saudi Arabia's pledge to help stabilise the market outweighed concerns about supply disruptions amid the tensions in the Middle East.

A report from Reuters said oil firm Saudi Aramco told at least four refiners in North Asia that it would supply them with the full contractual volumes nominated for November.

West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures for November settled at $83.49 a barrel, down $2.48 or about 2.9%.

Brent crude futures settled lower by $1.83 or about 2.1% at $86.48 a barrel.

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in a monthly report today that global oil inventories will likely fall by 200,000 bpd in the second half of 2023 due to voluntary output cuts from Saudi Arabia and reduced production among OPEC+ countries.

The EIA report also said crude output in the U.S. is set to rise by 1.01 million bpd to 12.92 million bpd in 2023, and by 200,000 bpd to 13.12 million bpd in 2024.

Total U.S. petroleum consumption is expected to increase by 100,000 bpd to 20.1 million bpd in 2023, and by 100,000 bpd to 20.2 million bpd in 2024.

"Crude prices are lower after a mountain of geopolitical risk to start the trading week didn't yield any real changes in crude output and transit. The only thing that is becoming clear for energy traders is that the road for the global growth recovery is getting rockier," says Edward Moya, Senior Market Analyst at OANDA.

"The German economy has too many headwinds and the risks of a global energy crisis could trigger a severe recession. China's piecemeal stimulus might not be enough, especially after disappointing travel and spending data from the Golden Week holiday," Moya adds.


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Fed Minutes Point To One More Interest Rate Hike

The Federal Reserve released the minutes of its latest monetary policy meeting on Wednesday, reiterating that a majority of participants expect one more interest rate hike will likely be appropriate.

The projections provided following the meeting forecast one more rate hike before the end of the year, although the minutes noted some officials judged it likely that no further increases would be warranted.

"All participants agreed that the Committee was in a position to proceed carefully and that policy decisions at every meeting would continue to be based on the totality of incoming information and its implications for the economic outlook as well as the balance of risks," the Fed said.

The Fed's next monetary policy meeting is scheduled for October 31-November, with CME Group's FedWatch Tool currently indicating just a 5.9 percent chance of a quarter point rate increase.

The FedWatch Tool indicates a 26.9 percent chance of a quarter point rate hike at the Fed's final meeting of the year set for December 12-13.

Meanwhile, the minutes said all participants agreed that policy should remain restrictive for some time until the Fed is confident that inflation is moving down sustainably toward its 2 percent objective.

A few participants said the pace at which inflation was returning to the 2 percent goal would influence their views of the sufficiently restrictive level of the policy rate and how long to keep policy restrictive.

"Several participants commented that, with the policy rate likely at or near its peak, the focus of monetary policy decisions and communications should shift from how high to raise the policy rate to how long to hold the policy rate at restrictive levels," the Fed said.

Participants generally judged that risks to the achievement of the committee's goals had become more two sided, the Fed said, although most participants continued to see upside risks to inflation.

Following the meeting, the Fed announced its widely expected decrease to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent

"Participants judged that maintaining this restrictive stance of policy would support further progress toward the Committee's goals while allowing the Committee time to gather additional data to evaluate this progress," the minutes said.


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Gold Futures Settle Higher

Gold futures settled higher on Wednesday, although the dollar's recovery from lower levels limited the yellow metal's upside.

Dovish Fed talk and China stimulus hopes contributed to gold's uptick. A drop in Treasury yields helped as well.

Media reports suggest that China is considering raising its budget deficit for 2023 to help the economy meet the government's annual growth target.

The dollar index, which dropped to 105.56 around mid morning, recovered to 105.90 later on in the session, recording a marginal gain.

Gold futures for December ended higher by $12.00 at $1,887.30 an ounce.

Silver futures for December ended up $0.180 at $22.133 an ounce, while Copper futures for December settled lower by $0.0220 at $3.6120 per pound.

"Falling global bond yields continue to fuel gold's price rally. Gold is seeing inflows on both uncertainty over how much market turmoil will stem from the Israel-Hamas war and as the Fed tries to cool the economy," says Edward Moya, Senior Market Analyst at OANDA. "If Wall Street becomes convinced that rates have peaked and the chances of more tightening in 2024 are unlikely, gold could rally back above the $1920 level," he adds.

Data from the Labor Department showed producer prices in the U.S. increased by slightly more than expected in the month of September. The data said its producer price index for final demand climbed by 0.5% in September after advancing by 0.7% in August. Economists had expected prices to rise by 0.4%.

The producer price growth was partly due to a continued surge in energy prices, which spiked by 3.3% in September after skyrocketing by 10.3% in August.

The report also said the annual rate of producer price growth accelerated to 2.2% in September from a revised 2% in August. Economists had expected the pace of price growth to come in unchanged compared to the 1.6% originally reported for the previous month.

On Thursday, the Labor Department is scheduled to release its more closely watched report on consumer price inflation in the month of September.


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*Federal Reserve Releases Minutes Of September Monetary Policy Meeting

Federal Reserve Releases Minutes Of September Monetary Policy Meeting


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Wednesday, 11 October 2023

Australian Dollar Pauses as US Dollar Sinks on a Dovish Fed. Will AUD/USD Reverse?

The Australian Dollar might be at a crossroads after more Fed commentary reiterated the case for a less hawkish stance. Equity markets got a boost, but uncertainty lingers. Lower AUD/USD? Via DailyFX - Market News https://www.dailyfx.com

South Korea Has $4.81 Billion Current Account Surplus In August

South Korea posted a current account surplus of $4.81 billion in August, the Bank of Korea said on Wednesday - up from $3.58 billion in July.

The goods account recorded a $5.06 billion surplus, while the services account posted a $1.60 billion deficit owing to a deficit in the travel account.

The primary income account recorded a $1.47 billion surplus due to an increase in interest income. The secondary income account recorded a $0.12 billion deficit.

Looking at the financial account, net assets increased by $5.73 billion during August. Direct investment assets increased by $3.41 billion, and direct investment liabilities increased by $1.70 billion.

There was a $3.05 billion increase in portfolio investment assets during the month, and a $1.01 billion decrease in portfolio investment liabilities.


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Japanese Yen Aided by Fed Pause View, Geopolitics; USD/JPY, GBP/JPY, AUD/JPY

Dovish comments from Fed officials coupled with the violence in Israel and Gaza have put a lid on US Treasury yields, boosting JPY. What is the outlook and what are the key levels to watch in USD/JPY, AUD/JPY and GBP/JPY? Via DailyFX - Market News https://www.dailyfx.com

South Korea Current Account Data Due On Wednesday

South Korea will on Wednesday release August figures for current account, highlighting a modest day for Asia-Pacific economic activity. In July, the current account surplus was $3.58 billion.

Australia will see October results for the consumer sentiment index from Westpac Bank; in September, the index was down 1.5 percent.

Japan will provide August figures for machine tool orders; in July, orders tumbled 17.6 percent on year.

China will release September figures for its M2 money stock and for new loans. M2 is called steady at 10.6 percent, while new loans are pegged at NCY2.500 trillion - up from CNY1.360 trillion in August.

Taiwan will see September figures for imports, exports and trade balance. Imports are expected to sink 14.15 percent on year after slumping 22.90 percent in August. Exports are called lower by an annual 3.0 percent after shedding 7.3 percent in the previous month. The trade surplus is pegged at $7.50 billion, down from $8.59 billion a month earlier.


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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2219569/

US Dollar Faces Reversal Risk Ahead of Inflation Report as DXY Breaks Key Trendline

The US Dollar is not off to a great start this week so far ahead of the highly anticipated inflation report. Will CPI data add further fuel to what appears to be a brewing reversal unfolding in DXY? Via DailyFX - Market News https://www.dailyfx.com

Dollar Loses Ground Against Major Counterparts

The U.S. dollar drifted lower against its major counterparts on Tuesday as bond yields fell after dovish comments from some Federal Reserve officials lowered expectations for further interest rate hikes for now.

The yield on benchmark 10-year Treasury Note dropped to around 4.65% amid fading bets about rate hikes and as bonds attracted safe-haven buying.

Fed Bank of Atlanta President Bostic reiterated that he doesn't think policymakers need to raise interest rates any further.

Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said on Monday that the central bank is "in a position to proceed carefully in assessing the extent of any additional policy firming that may be necessary."

"Higher term premiums result in higher term interest rates for the same setting of the fed funds rate, all else equal. Thus, if term premiums rise, they could do some of the work of cooling the economy for us, leaving less need for additional monetary policy tightening," Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) downgraded the global growth forecast for next year, saying the projections are weakest in decades, while the likelihood of a soft-landing has increased with growing divergences amid modestly easing inflationary pressures.

Growth forecasts for the U.S. economy for this year and next were raised to 2.1 percent and 1.5 percent, respectively.

Investors now look ahead to the release of U.S. CPI data and minutes of the Fed's September monetary policy meeting this week for further direction.

The dollar index, which dropped to 105.66 around early afternoon, has edged up to 105.76, but still remains well below the flat line, losing about 0.3%.

Against the Euro, the dollar has weakened to 1.0607, and against Pound Sterling, is down at 1.2289.

Against the Japanese currency, the dollar is trading at 148.73 yen, gaining about 0.15%. The dollar is weak against the Aussie at 0.6430. Against Swiss franc, the greenback is down more than 0.2%, fetching CHF 0.9046 a unit.

The dollar is down slightly against the Loonie at C$ 1.3583.


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Oil Futures Settle Lower Ahead Of Inventory Data

Crude oil prices fell on Tuesday, retreating after the previous session's sharp upmove, as traders assessed the likely impact of potential supply disruptions due to the ongoing war in the Middle East.

West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures for November ended lower by $0.41 or about 0.5% at $85.97 a barrel.

Brent crude futures settled at $87.81 a barrel, down $0.50 or about 0.6%.

The current developments in Israel don't pose an immediate threat to oil supply as the country produces very little crude oil. Still, it is feared that the sanctions on Iran and subsequent disruptions to Iran's oil supply would have more of an impact on oil markets, if the conflict is protracted in duration.

Meanwhile, traders await weekly oil reports from the American Petroleum Institute (API) and U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). The API's report is due later today, while the EIA's data is due on Wednesday.


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Tuesday, 10 October 2023

S&P 500 & Nasdaq Rebound from Key Support; How Much More Upside?

Despite the escalation in geopolitical tensions, US indices have rebounded from key support after an apparent dovish shift by Fed officials. However, rising US real yields/cost of borrowing pose constraints on the upside. Via DailyFX - Market News https://www.dailyfx.com

Australia Building Approval Data Due On Tuesday

Australia will on Tuesday release August numbers for building approvals, highlighting a modest day for Asia-Pacific economic activity. Approvals are expected to rise 7.0 percent on month following the 8.1 percent contraction in July.

Australia also will see September results for the business confidence and conditions surveys from NAB; in August, their scores were +2 and +13, respectively.

Japan will provide August data for current account, with forecasts suggesting a surplus of 2.41 trillion yen following the 2.76 trillion yen surplus in July.

Malaysia will see August numbers for unemployment; in July, the jobless rate was 3.4 percent.

Finally, the Taiwan stock market remains shuttered for the National Day holiday and will return to action on Wednesday.


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Oil Futures Settle Sharply Higher As Geopolitial Crisis Fuels Supply Concerns

Oil prices rose sharply on Monday amid concerns about disruptions to global oil supplies due to escalating tensions in the Middle East.

The upward revision in forecast for global oil demand for the medium and long term by OPEC contributed as well to the sharp uptick in crude oil prices.

West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures for November ended higher by $3.59 or about 4.3% at $86.38 a barrel.

Brent crude futures settled at $88.15 a barrel, gaining $3.57 or about 4.2%.

The battle between Israel and the Palestinian militan group Hamas has taken over 1,100 lives so far.

Although the Israel and Palestinian territories are not oil producers, the Middle Eastern region accounts for almost a third of global supply.

"Crude prices are rallying as a new war sparks concerns of an even tighter oil market. It seems the risk that this conflict could widen and drag in the West means the risk of future sanctions against Iran are growing," says Edward Moya, Senior Market Analyst at OANDA. "This is not going to be a quick war between Israel and Hamas, which means we could see oil behave more like a safe-haven if the geopolitical landscape deteriorates," he adds.

"The oil market will remain volatile as potential supply disruptions will also need to counter falling global travel demand. It still seems like oil prices are heading higher and eventually will comfortably find a home above the $90 a barrel level," Moya says further.


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Gold Price Rallies as US Dollar Slips and Volatility Ticks Up. Higher XAU/USD?

The gold price leapt higher again overnight as the markets contemplate the ramifications of increasing conflict in the Middle East and a US Dollar under pressure. Will XAU/USD gain further? Via DailyFX - Market News https://www.dailyfx.com

Crude Oil Price Surge in Focus After Hamas Attacked Israel, Retail Bets Remain Bullish

Crude oil prices gapped and finished Monday 4.35% higher after Hamas’s attack on Israel generated potential supply disruption woes. Retail bets remain net-long. What are key levels to watch? Via DailyFX - Market News https://www.dailyfx.com

Gold Futures Settle Higher On Safe-haven Buying

Gold prices climbed higher on Monday on safe-haven buying amid rising geopolitical crisis in the Middle East, where Israel and Palestinian militant group Hamas are engaged in a fierce battle.

Gold was also supported by hopes the Federal Reserve might pause interest rate hike after data showed wage growth in te U.S. moderated in the month of September although the economy saw a larger than expected job additions in the month.

The dollar pared early gains and is heading towards the flat line. The dollar index climbed to a high of 106.60 in the Asian session on safe-haven appeal, but has dropped to 106.08 now, up just marginally from the previous close.

Gold futures for December ended higher by $19.10 at $1,864.30 an ounce.

Silver futures for December ended up $0.201 at $21.924 an ounce, while Copper futures for December settled at $3.6460 per pound, gaining $0.0185.

"Gold prices are rising as a new geopolitical risk has investors scramble for safe-havens on a day the US bond market is closed. The Israel-Hamas war stunned markets and the risks are elevated that this could spread further across the Middle East," says Edward Moya, Senior Market Analyst at OANDA.

"Gold now has a floor at the $1920 level and it seems it would take a perfect storm of hot inflation readings/expectations and for the big banks to deliver an upbeat outlook on the consumer, to reassert the bearish trend," Moya adds.

The inflation data, due later in the week, could have a significant impact on the outlook for interest rates amid recent concerns the Federal Reserve will keep rates at an elevated level longer than previously anticipated.


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Monday, 9 October 2023

GBP/USD Price Forecast: Souring Risk Sentiment Shackles Pound

The pound trades on the backfoot as safe haven demand sees the USD bid as tensions in the Middle East rise. UK GDP and US CPI inf focus later this week. Via DailyFX - Market News https://www.dailyfx.com

*Indonesia Sep Consumer Confidence 121.7 Vs. 125.2 In August

Indonesia Sep Consumer Confidence 121.7 Vs. 125.2 In August


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*Ireland Sep Construction PMI 48.6 Vs. 44.9 In Aug - BNP Paribas Real Estate Ireland/S&P Global

Ireland Sep Construction PMI 48.6 Vs. 44.9 In Aug - BNP Paribas Real Estate Ireland/S&P Global


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Crude Oil Reverses Recent Losses as Markets Recalibrate after Israeli Invasion

WTI crude oil ran higher today along with the US Dollar as markets contemplate the consequences of the hostilities toward Israel over the weekend. Will it drive WTI higher? Via DailyFX - Market News https://www.dailyfx.com

Indonesia Consumer Confidence Data Due On Monday

Indonesia will on Monday see September results for its consumer confidence index, highlighting a very light day for Asia-Pacific economic activity. In August, the index score was 125.2.

Also, the markets in Japan (Sports Day), Taiwan (National Day) and South Korea (Hangul Day) are closed on Monday. Japan and South Korea return to action on Tuesday, while Taiwan is off until Wednesday.


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Australian Dollar Dips as US Dollar Rallies After Israel Attack. Lower AUD/USD?

The Australian Dollar slipped to start this week after the US Dollar bounced on haven status and higher Treasury yields and bond spreads might impact further. Will AUD/USD? Via DailyFX - Market News https://www.dailyfx.com

Sunday, 8 October 2023

Market Q4 Outlook: Gold, Oil, Stocks, US Dollar, Euro, Pound, Yen, BTC at Tipping Point

Different market dynamics are poised to unfold in the near term, potentially paving the way for increased volatility and attractive trading setups in major assets. This article presents a comprehensive collection of Q4 forecasts. Via DailyFX - Market News https://www.dailyfx.com

US Equities Technical Outlook: Range-Bound with Downside Potential

The equity selloff the end of Q3 places the major US indices at a crucial level of support. Failure of support with sustained momentum leaves stocks open to further downside Via DailyFX - Market News https://www.dailyfx.com

Crude Oil Prices Might Have Ran Too Far in Q3 Amid a Deteriorating China Outlook

Crude oil prices might have run too far in the third quarter, setting the stage for potential disappointment amid deteriorating economic conditions in China. Via DailyFX - Market News https://www.dailyfx.com

US Dollar – Is The Rally Coming To An End?

The US dollar has been a one-way trade since the middle of July, rallying in excess of 6% since printing a 99.49 low. Via DailyFX - Market News https://www.dailyfx.com

Saturday, 7 October 2023

Oil Fundamental Forecast: Can Q4 Sustain Oil Gains?

Q4 crude oil outlook focused on OPEC+, monetary policy and global economic growth conditions. Via DailyFX - Market News https://www.dailyfx.com

The Range Trade is Alive and Well as Markets Ponder Central Bank Rate Strike

Range Trading Unfolds as Several Major Global Central Banks May Have Put the Cue Back in the Rack on Rate Rises. Via DailyFX - Market News https://www.dailyfx.com

Q4 Trade Opportunity: EUR/CAD Long-Term Reversal as Oil, Inflation Rise

EUR/CAD primed for a LT reversal upon ‘head and shoulders’ confirmation. Souring fundamentals in Europe combined with rising oil and interest rate expectations in Canada considered Via DailyFX - Market News https://www.dailyfx.com

Dollar Retreats, Loses Ground Against Major Counterparts

The U.S. dollar climbed higher Friday morning after data showed employment in the U.S. surged by much more than expected in the month of September. However, the currency retreated quickly and turned in a mixed performance against its major counterparts.

The Labor Department data also showed the annual rate of wage growth edged down in August, easing concerns about the outlook for interest rates.

Traders now await next week's data on inflation, and the minutes from the Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting, for clues about the outlook for interest rates.

The Labor Department said non-farm payroll employment shot up by 336,000 jobs in September compared to economist estimates for an increase of about 170,000 jobs.

The closely watched Labor Department report also showed notable upward revisions to job growth in the two previous months.

Employment in August and July jumped by 236,000 jobs and 227,000 jobs, respectively, reflecting a net upward revision of 119,000 jobs.

The data said the unemployment rate in September came in unchanged from August at 3.8%. The unemployment rate was expected to edge down to 3.7%.

The data also showed the annual rate of wage growth edged down to 4.2% in September from 4.3% in August, while economists had expected the pace of growth to remain unchanged.

The dollar index, which climbed to 106.97, dropped to 105.95 before recovering to 106.11, but still remained well below the flat line, losing about 0.21%.

Against the Euro, the dollar weakened to 1.0586 after having firmed to 1.0483. The dollar eased to 1.2234 against Pound Sterling from 1.2193.

Against the Japanese currency, the dollar strengthened to 149.30 yen from 148.51 yen. The dollar is weak against the Aussie at 0.6383. The Swiss franc firmed against the greenback, recovering to 0.9101. The Loonie strengthened against the dollar, firming to 1.3663 after data showed a much stronger than expected addition of jobs in Canada in the month of September.


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Short USD/ZAR: Top Trade Opportunities

USD/ZAR in Q4 looks to the US for guidance while keeping a close eye on China and the local landscape. Via DailyFX - Market News https://www.dailyfx.com

Gold Futures Settle Higher As Dollar Pares Gains

Gold futures settled on a firm note on Friday as the dollar, which had climbed up after the release of non-farm payroll data, faltered from higher levels subsequently.

The dollar index, which climbed to 106.94 in early New York session, dropped to 105.95 before edging up to 106.11, still remaining well below the flat line.

Gold futures for December ended higher by $13.40 at $1,845.20 an ounce, rallying from a low of $1,823.50.

Silver futures for December ended up $0.704 at $21.723 an ounce, while Copper futures for December settled at $3.6275 per pound, gaining $0.0755.

Data from the Labor Department showed employment in the U.S. surged by much more than expected in the month of September. The data said non-farm payroll employment shot up by 336,000 jobs in September compared to economist estimates for an increase of about 170,000 jobs.

The report also showed notable upward revisions to job growth in the two previous months.

Employment in August and July jumped by 236,000 jobs and 227,000 jobs, respectively, reflecting a net upward revision of 119,000 jobs.

The report triggered a spike by treasury yields amid renewed concerns about the outlook for interest rates, with yields once again soaring to their highest levels in over sixteen years. However, yields pulled back well off their highs subsequently.


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Friday, 6 October 2023

FTSE 100, S&P 500 and Russell 2000 Hover Above Support Ahead of US NFP

​​Outlook on FTSE 100, S&P 500 and Russell 2000 ahead of Friday’s key Non-Farm Payrolls data release. Via DailyFX - Market News https://www.dailyfx.com

Japanese Yen Latest: NFPs to Send USD/JPY Lower or Will the BoJ Need to Intervene?

Bank of Japan officials will be watching today’s NFP report with interest to see the reaction of the US dollar. Another leg higher for the greenback may force the Japanese central bank into the market. Via DailyFX - Market News https://www.dailyfx.com

*Australia Retail Sales +0.2% On Month In August

Australia Retail Sales +0.2% On Month In August


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*Japan Household Spending +3.9% On Month, -2.5% On Year In August

Japan Household Spending +3.9% On Month, -2.5% On Year In August


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Japan Household Spending Data Due On Friday

Japan will on Friday release August figures for household spending, highlighting a light day for Asia-Pacific economic activity. Spending is expected to rise 0.9 percent on month and sink 4.3 percent on year after falling 2.7 percent on month and 5.0 percent on year in July.

Japan also will see August results for its leading index, with forecasts suggesting a score of 109.0, up from 108.2.

Australia will provide August data for retail sales, with analysts looking for an increase of 0.2 percent on month, slowing 0.5 percent in July.

Finally, the markets in China remain closed for the National Day holiday and will resume trade on Monday.


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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2219359/