Forex signals news and analysis, fundamental stock market breakdown including geopolitical analysis and in depth discussion. Up to date live news feed from around the world, stock market specific.
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Wednesday, 31 January 2024
Euro (EUR/USD) Steadies After German Inflation Falls, FOMC Decision Up Next
Japanese Yen Weakens As Perky Dollar Looks To Fed Guidance
FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 take a Breather ahead of the Fed Meeting
ASX Achieved a Record High after Cooler Aussie Inflation, AUD/USD Weaker
Tuesday, 30 January 2024
IMF Upgrades Global Growth as Major Economies Show Resilience
GBP/USD Holds Above 1.2600 As Year’s First Central Bank Meets Near
Euro (EUR/USD) Pares Recent Losses After German and Euro Area Q4 GDP Releases
Oil Prices Pullback Sharply after Oil Tanker Strike, Caution Grows
Monday, 29 January 2024
USD Ahead of FOMC: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY Setups
Crude Oil Prices Slip After Strong Run, Market Awaits US’ Jordan Response
Gold and Silver Push Higher as Middle East Tensions Escalate, FOMC and US NFPs Near
Asia Update: Evergrande Liquidation Order Fails to Sour the Mood - AUD, CNH
Sunday, 28 January 2024
Markets Week Ahead: Fed and BoE Decisions, US Jobs Data, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon Report
Saturday, 27 January 2024
Gold Price Forecast: Fed Decision to Guide Trend, Critical Levels For XAU/USD
Friday, 26 January 2024
USD/JPY in Consolidation Stage but Fed Decision May Spark Big Directional Move
US Breaking News: PCE Reveals Steady Progress Towards Fed’s 2% Target
Euro (EUR/USD) Under Pressure as Markets Push the ECB to Start Cutting Rates Earlier
Thursday, 25 January 2024
Gold Price Forecast: Core PCE Data to Guide Markets ahead of Fed Decision
US Dollar Mixed As GDP Data Smash Forecasts, Gloomy ECB Stands Pat
ECB Leaves Interest Rates Unchanged, EUR/USD Listless Ahead of Press Conference and US Q4 GDP
USD/CAD Latest After BoC Makes Dovish Shift, Price Pressures Remain
Wednesday, 24 January 2024
US Dollar Struggles Despite Better-than-Expected US PMI Data; GDP, PCE Next
British Pound Rallies on Robust UK PMIs, GBP/USD and EUR/GBP Latest
AUD Price Update: Aussie Mulling Latest Chinese Stimulus, AUD Contained
Tuesday, 23 January 2024
Crude Oil Prices Retrace Despite News of More US/UK Strikes in Yemen
Pound Sterling Price Action Setups: GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, GBP/JPY
Dow and Nasdaq 100 at Record Highs, while the Russell 2000 Continues to Rebound
USD/JPY Slips Lower After BoJ Stands Pat but Hints on Improving Inflation Outlook
Monday, 22 January 2024
Oil (Brent Crude, WTI) Edge Cautiously Higher - Follow through Lacking
Japanese Yen Ticks Up As Market Looks Toward BOJ’s First 2024 Rate Call
FTSE 100 Struggles while DAX 40 Rises and S&P 500 Trades at Record Highs
Modest Start to the Week for AUD, PBOC Maintains Benchmark Rate
Sunday, 21 January 2024
Markets Week Ahead: Gold Under Pressure, US Equities Rally, USD Holds Recent Highs
US Dollar Forecast: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CAD & AUD/USD’s Path Tied to US PCE
Saturday, 20 January 2024
U.S. Dollar Showing Modest Move Back To The Downside
The value of the U.S. dollar has moved modestly lower during trading on Friday, giving back ground after trending over the past few days.
The U.S. dollar index has slipped 0.28 points or 0.3 percent to 103.25, pulling back off the one-month high set on Thursday.
The greenback is trading at 148.10 yen versus the 148.16 yen it fetched at the close of New York trading on Thursday. Against the euro, the dollar is valued at $1.0895 compared to yesterday's $1.0876.
The modest pullback by the dollar comes after the University of Michigan released a report showing a significant improvement in U.S. consumer sentiment as well as a continued decrease in inflation expectations.
The University of Michigan said its consumer sentiment index surged to 78.8 in January after jumping to 69.7 in December. Economists had expected the index to inch up to 70.0.
With the much bigger than expected increase, the consumer sentiment index reached its highest level since hitting 81.2 in July 2021.
The University of Michigan's report also showed continued decreases in both year-ahead and long-run inflation expectations.
Year-ahead inflation expectations slipped to 2.9 percent in January after plunging to 3.1 percent in December, hitting the lowest level since December 2020.
Long-run inflation expectations also edged down to 2.8 percent in January from 2.9 percent in December, falling just below the 2.9-3.1 percent range seen for 26 of the last 30 months.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2224613/
Treasuries Recover From Early Weakness To Close Roughly Flat
Treasuries extended their recent downward trend in early trading on Friday but regained ground over the course of the session.
Bond prices climbed well off their early lows, eventually ending the day roughly flat. Subsequently, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, inched up by less than a basis point to 4.146 percent after reaching a higher of 4.198 percent.
The early weakness among treasuries came as a University of Michigan report showing a substantial improvement in U.S. consumer sentiment in January reduced the safe haven appeal of bonds.
The University of Michigan said its consumer sentiment index surged to 78.8 in January after jumping to 69.7 in December. Economists had expected the index to inch up to 70.0.
With the much bigger than expected increase, the consumer sentiment index reached its highest level since hitting 81.2 in July 2021.
Selling pressure waned over the course of the session, however, as the report also showed continued decreases in both year-ahead and long-run inflation expectations.
Year-ahead inflation expectations slipped to 2.9 percent in January after plunging to 3.1 percent in December, hitting the lowest level since December 2020.
Long-run inflation expectations also edged down to 2.8 percent in January from 2.9 percent in December, falling just below the 2.9-3.1 percent range seen for 26 of the last 30 months.
The U.S. economic calendar starts relatively quiet early next week, although reports on personal income and spending, durable goods orders and fourth quarter GDP are likely to attract attention later in the week.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2224611/
Friday, 19 January 2024
Japan Inflation Data Due On Friday
Japan will on Friday release December numbers for consumer prices, highlighting a light day for Asia-Pacific economic activity.
In November, overall inflation was down 0.2 percent on month and up 2.8 percent on year, while core CPI rose an annual 2.5 percent.
Japan also will see November results for its tertiary industry activity index, with forecasts suggesting a score of +0.2 following the -1.2 reading in October.
Malaysia will provide December data for imports, exports and trade balance. Imports are expected to rise 3.2 percent on year, up from 1.7 percent in November. Exports are seen lower by an annual 4.8 percent after slipping 5.9 percent in the previous month. The trade surplus is pegged at MYR17.1 billion, up from MYR12.4 billion a month earlier.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2224555/
Dollar Consolidates Recent Gains Against Major Counterparts
The U.S. dollar firmed against most of its major counterparts on Thursday amid fading hopes for an early rate cut after data showed a drop in jobless claims in the week ended January 12th. However, the currency pared gains subsequently and even turned slightly weak against some counterparts.
A report from the Labor Department said initial jobless claims fell to 187,000 in the week ended January 13th, a decrease of 16,000 from the previous week's revised level of 203,000. Economists had expected jobless claims to inch up to 207,000 from the 202,000 originally reported for the previous week.
With the unexpected decline, jobless claims dropped to their lowest level since hitting 182,000 in the week ended September 24, 2022.
A report released by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia showed regional manufacturing activity contracted at a slightly slower rate in the month of January.
The Philly Fed said its diffusion index for current general activity rose to a negative 10.6 in January from a revised reading of negative 12.8 in December. Economists had expected the index to rise to a negative 7.0 from the negative 10.5 originally reported for the previous month.
Data from the Commerce Department showed housing starts slumped by 4.3% to an annual rate of 1.460 million in December.
The dollar index, which advanced to 103.63 around late morning, was at 103.47 a little while ago, up slightly from the previous close.
Against the Euro, the dollar was up marginally at 1.0874, and against Pound Sterling, it weakened to 1.2703 after having firmed to 1.2647 following the release of the jobless claims data.
The dollar was flat against the Japanese currency at 148.16 yen. Against the Aussie, the dollar weakened to 0.6570. The Swiss franc was down at 0.8680 a dollar, while the Loonie edged up marginally against the greenback to C$ 1.3492.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2224554/
Oil Settles Sharply Higher On Drop In Crude Stocks, Bullish Demand Forecast
Oil prices climbed higher on Thursday, lifted by data showing a drop in U.S. crude inventories in the week ended January 12th, and on higher forecasts for global oil demand.
Recent strong U.S. economic data also point to a likely jump in oil demand. Meanwhile, tensions in the Middle East continue to disrupt global shipping and trade.
Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed crude inventories dropped by 2.5 million barrels last week, as against expectations for a declined of 313,000 barrels.
Gasoline inventories increased by 3.1 million barrels last week, higher than an expected increase of 2.2 million barrels, while distillate stocks were up 2.4 million barrels in the week, more than 2.5 times the expected increase.
West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures for February ended higher by $1.52 at $74.08 a barrel.
Brent crude futures were up $1.20 or 1.53% at $79.08 a barrel a little while ago.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), both said in their reports that global oil demand will see a significant growth this year.
The IEA said in its montly report that oil demand will likely grow by 1.24 million barrels per day in 2024, up 180,000 barrels per day from its earlier projection.
The OPEC said in its report on Wednesday that it expects demand to rise by 2.25 million barrels per day this year, and by 1.85 million barrels per day to 106.21 millon barrels per day in 2025.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2224552/
Thursday, 18 January 2024
Dollar Climbs Higher Against Major Counterparts On Strong Economic Data
The U.S. dollar gained against its major counterparts on Wednesday amid fading prospects of an interest rate cut in March after data showed a bigger than expected retail sales in the month of December.
Data from the Commerce Department showed retail sales in the U.S. climbed by 0.6% in December after rising by 0.3% in November. Economists had expected retail sales to advance by 0.4%.
A separate report from the Commerce Department showed business inventories slipped by 0.1% in November, matching the dip seen in October as well as economist estimates.
A report released by the Federal Reserve showed industrial production in the U.S. inched up 0.1% in December.
The National Association of Home Builders released a report showing a significant improvement in U.S. homebuilder confidence in the month of January.
The report said the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index jumped to 44 in January from 37 in December. Economists had expected the index to rise to 39.
Data released by the Labor Department showed import prices in the U.S. unexpectedly came in unchanged in the month of December, after declining by a revised 0.5% in November.
The dollar index, which surged to 103.69 earlier in the day, was up marginally at 103.38 a little while ago.
Against the Euro, the dollar firmed to 1.0846 this morning, but pared gains as the day progressed and was at 1.0883, down slightly from the previous close.
Against the Japanese currency, the dollar was up at 148.19 yen, gaining from 147.19 yen. The dollar firmed to 0.6551 against the Aussie. The dollar firmed against Swiss franc, fetching CHF 0.8646 a unit, and traded higher against the Loonie at C$1.3512.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2224494/
WTI Crude Futures Settle Higher Ahead Of Inventory Data
Despite weak fourth-quarter GDP data from China, oil futures settled higher on Wednesday, ahead of weekly crude inventory data.
Concerns about the outlook for oil demand, and a firm dollar limited the uptick in oil prices.
West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for February ended higher by $0.16 at $72.56 a barrel.
Brent crude futures were down $0.26 or 0.33% at $78.03 a barrel a little while ago.
Worries about the outlook for energy demand remain as China reported a 5.2% increase in fourth-quarter GDP, lower than the expected 5.3% rise.
Meanwhile, OPEC reiterated that demand will rise by 2.2 million barrels per day this year, over 2023. OPEC expects oil demand to rise by 1.8 million barrels per day next year.
The OPEC group produced 26.7 million barrels of crude oil per day in December, up from 26.628 million barrels of crude oil per day a month earlier.
Oil prices fell earlier in the day due to disappointing Chinese data and broader risk-off sentiment in the markets as traders pared back rate cuts, according to Craig Erlam, Senior Market Analyst at OANDA, UK & EMEA.
The weekly inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) is due later today. The weely oil report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) will be out Thursday morning.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2224493/
Treasuries See Further Downside Following Retail Sales Data
Treasuries moved to the downside during trading on Wednesday, extending the notable decline seen in the previous session.
Bond prices came under pressure in early trading and remained in the red throughout the day. As a result, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, rose by 4.0 basis points to 4.106 percent.
The ten-year yield added to the 11.6 basis points surge seen on Tuesday, reaching its highest closing level over a month.
The continued weakness among treasuries reflected ongoing uncertainty about the outlook for interest rates amid recent concerns the Federal Reserve won't lower rates as early as previously anticipated.
Adding to the worries the Fed will hold off on cutting rates, the Commerce Department released a report this morning showing U.S. retail sales increased by more than expected in the month of December.
The report said retail sales climbed by 0.6 percent in December after rising by 0.3 percent in November. Economists had expected retail sales to advance by 0.4 percent.
Excluding a jump in sales by motor vehicle and parts dealers, retail sales rose by 0.4 percent in December after inching up by 0.2 percent in November. Ex-auto sales were expected to edge up by another 0.2 percent.
"As long as the primary indicators of economic activity like personal spending and the labor market are showing no signs of weakness, the Fed will be comfortable extending its rate pause through the March FOMC decision at least," said FHN Financial Macro Strategist Will Compernolle.
A separate report released by the Federal Reserve showed an unexpected uptick in U.S. industrial production in the month of December.
The Fed said industrial production inched up by 0.1 percent in December, while revised data showed production was unchanged in November.
Economists had expected industrial production to come in unchanged compared to the 0.2 percent increase originally reported for the previous month.
Trading on Thursday may be impacted by reaction to another batch of U.S. economic data, including reports on jobless claims, housing starts and Philadelphia-area manufacturing activity.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2224492/
Wednesday, 17 January 2024
Dollar Rises Against Major Counterparts
The U.S. dollar climbed higher against its major counterparts on Tuesday after comments from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller raised concerns the Fed may not cut interest rates as aggressively as initially expected.
Waller said interest rate cuts are likely this year, but added that the central bank can take its time relaxing monetary policy. He said the process should be "carefully calibrated and not rushed."
Comments from several top bank officials in Europe also seemed to indicate rate cuts are unlikely anytime soon.
In economic news today, a report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index plunged to -43.7 in January, the lowest reading since May 2020.
The dollar index surged to 103.43, gaining more than 1%.
Against the Euro, the dollar firmed to 1.0876 from 1.0953. Against Pound Sterling, the dollar strengthened to 1.2635, gaining from 1.2727.
The dollar moved up sharply against the Japanese currency, fetching 147.19 yen a unit, nearly 1% more than the previous close.
Against the Aussie, the dollar firmed to 0.6584 from 0.6660. The Swiss franc weakened to 0.8617 against the dollar, while the Loonie eased to 1.3495 a U.S. dollar.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2224413/
Oil Futures Settle Lower As Stronger Dollar, Warmer Weather Forecast Weigh
Oil futures settled lower on Tuesday, coming off early highs, as a stronger dollar and forecasts that weather in the U.S. will be colder than normal weighed on oil prices.
Meteorologists have reportedly projected weather in the U.S. would switch from colder than normal this week to mostly warmer than normal during the later part of the month.
The dollar surged higher amid fading hopes about early interest rate cuts following some hawkish comments from central bank officials.
West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures ended down $0.28 at $72.40 a barrel.
Brent crude futures were trading slightly down $0.05 at $78.10 a barrel a little while ago.
Oil prices moved higher earlier in the day amid persisting concerns about likely disruptions in supply due to the attacks by the Houthi militants on vessels in the Red Sea. Houthi rebels fired a missile that struck a U.S.-owned ship Monday just off the coast of Yemen in the Gulf of Aden.
Meanwhile, Israel's military has ended its "intensive" phase of operations in northern Gaza and will soon do the same in southern Gaza, the country's defense minister has said.
Weekly inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) and U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) will be out on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively, a day later than usual due to the U.S. market holiday on Monday for Martin Luther King Jr. Day.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2224412/
Gold Prices in Turmoil as Treasury Yields Rebound and US Dollar Dominates
Tuesday, 16 January 2024
*South Korea Dec Export Price Index Down 2.3% On Year Vs. -3.5% In November
South Korea Dec Export Price Index Down 2.3% On Year Vs. -3.5% In November
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2224346/
Monday, 15 January 2024
*Australia Dec ANZ-Indeed Job Ads Up 0.1% On Month Vs. -5.1% In November
Australia Dec ANZ-Indeed Job Ads Up 0.1% On Month Vs. -5.1% In November
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2224286/
*India Dec Passenger Vehicles Sales Up 3.2% Y/Y Vs. 4.3% In November
India Dec Passenger Vehicles Sales Up 3.2% Y/Y Vs. 4.3% In November
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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2224285/
South Korea Trade Data On Tap For Monday
South Korea will on Monday release December figures for imports, exports and trade balance, highlighting a light day for Asia-Pacific economic activity.
In November, imports were down 10.8 percent on year and exports rose an annual 5.1 percent for a trade surplus of $4.48 billion.
Japan will see November numbers for machine tool orders; in the previous month, orders were down 13.6 percent on year.
Indonesia will provide December figures for imports, exports and trade balance. In November, imports rose 3.29 percent on year and exports slumped an annual 8.56 percent to a trade surplus of $2.41 billion.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2224284/
Sunday, 14 January 2024
Markets Week Ahead: Gold Bid, US Dollar Struggles, US Equities Eye Fresh Highs
US Dollar Forecast: Reversal Possible; Setups on EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD
Saturday, 13 January 2024
Dollar Recovers After Mild Setback
After drifting lower against its major counterparts Friday morning following the release of the producer price inflation data, the U.S. dollar recovered some lost ground and advanced against a few rivals.
Data from the Labor Department showed that the producer price index slipped by 0.1% in December, matching a revised dip in November. Economists had expected producer prices to inch up by 0.1% compared to the unchanged reading originally reported for the previous month.
Meanwhile, the report said the annual rate of producer price growth accelerated to 1% in December from a downwardly revised 0.8% in November.
The annual rate of producer price growth was expected to speed up to 1.3% from the 0.9% originally reported for the previous month.
The dollar index, which dropped to 102.09 around mid morning, recovered to 102.45, up from the previous close of 102.29.
Against the Euro, the dollar firmed to 1.0952 after having drifted down to 1.0989. Against Pound Sterling, the dollar was up slightly at 1.2751, and against the Yen, it dropped to 144.88 yen a unit.
The dollar is flat against the Aussie at 0.6688. Against Swiss franc, the greenback is up marginally, fetching CHF 0.8527 a unit. Against the Loonie, the dollar is higher at C$ 1.3405 after having weakened to C$ 1.3344 earlier in the session.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2224283/
Oil Futures Settle Higher Again On Supply Concerns
Oil futures settled notably higher on Friday as an escalation in tensions in the Middle East raised concerns about delay in supplies.
The number of oil tankers being diverted from the Red Sea rose sharply following the air and sea strikes by the U.S. and the U.K. on the areas occupied by the Houthi rebels.
Oil prices also received some support after customs data showed China's annual crude oil imports hit an all-time high in 2023.
West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures for February ended higher by $0.66 or about 0.9% at $72.68 a barrel, coming off a high of $75.25 a barrel.
However, the contract shed about 1.1% in the week.
Brent crude futures settled at $78.29 a barrel, gaining $0.88 or about 1.1%.
"The price jump came as the US and UK launched strikes against Houthi targets in Yemen, raising the risk of broadening the conflict in the region and disrupting oil supplies," says Craig Erlam, Senior Market Analyst at OANDA, UK & EMEA. "Despite today's moves, there's clearly still a view that the risk of a significant disruption is small or prices would be much higher. Still. they will remain sensitive to further developments," he adds.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2224282/
Treasuries Finish Volatile Session Moderately Higher
After ending yesterday's trading firmly positive on late-day strength, treasuries fluctuated over the course of the trading session on Friday.
Bond prices bounced back and forth across the unchanged line before eventually closing moderately higher. Subsequently, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, fell by 2.7 basis points to 3.950 percent.
The volatility on the day came as traders reacted to a Labor Department report showing producer prices in the U.S. unexpectedly edged slightly lower in the month of December.
The Labor Department said its producer price index for final demand slipped by 0.1 percent in December, matching a revised dip in November.
Economists had expected producer prices to inch up by 0.1 percent compared to the unchanged reading originally reported for the previous month.
Meanwhile, the report said the annual rate of producer price growth accelerated to 1.0 percent in December from a downwardly revised 0.8 percent in November.
The annual rate of producer price growth was expected to speed up to 1.3 percent from the 0.9 percent originally reported for the previous month.
After yesterday's report showing consumer prices in the U.S. rose by slightly more than expected in the month of December, the whole price data added to recent uncertainty about the outlook for interest rates.
"PPI reports always feel secondary when they're released after the more-important CPI data, but considering the December PPI does not incorporate new supply chain issues from conflicts in the Red Sea, this morning's report feels particularly backward-looking," said FHN Financial Macro Strategist Will Compernolle.
"As a result, the encouraging aspects of December data on producer prices should be largely dismissed for now," he added. "We'll have to wait until January to see how recent supply chain problems pass through to US producer prices."
Following the long holiday weekend, next week's trading may be impacted by reaction to the latest economic news, including reports on retail sales, industrial production, import and export prices, housing starts and consumer sentiment.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2224281/
Gold Futures Settle Sharply Higher
Gold prices rose sharply on Friday amid an escalation in geopolitical tensions after the United States and the United Kingdom launched air strikes against military targets in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen.
The rebel militants were using the areas to attack commercial vessels in one of the world's most vital waterways.
The producer price inflation data, and the drop in yields of the US 10-year Treasury Note contributed as well to the surge in bullion prices.
Investors also digested mixed comments from Federal Reserve officials on the possibility of rate cuts this year.
Gold futures for February ended higher by $32.40 at $2,051.60 an ounce.
Silver futures for March ended up $0.624 at $23.329 an ounce, while Copper futures for March settled at $3.7405 per pound, down $0.0360 from the previous close.
"Gold was boosted by the PPI data and the US 10-year yields tumbling well below 4%, while the 2-year hit an 8-month low. The yellow metal has been struggling over the last couple of weeks and the jobs report and CPI data did little to revitalize it. The PPI appears to have done just that though, although it still has some way to go to reach the new highs reached in early December," says Craig Erlam, Senior Market Analyst at OANDA, UK & EMEA.
Data from the Labor Department showed the producer price index for final demand slipped by 0.1% in December, matching a revised dip in November. Economists had expected producer prices to inch up by 0.1% compared to the unchanged reading originally reported for the previous month.
Meanwhile, the report said the annual rate of producer price growth accelerated to 1% in December from a downwardly revised 0.8% in November. The annual rate of producer price growth was expected to speed up to 1.3% from the 0.9% originally reported for the previous month.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2224280/
Friday, 12 January 2024
Dollar Rises On Inflation Data, But Retreats Later Against Some Major Rivals
The U.S. dollar, which climbed higher on Thursday after data showed a bigger than expected increase in the nation's consumer price inflation in the month of December, has pared gains and is turning in a mixed performance against its major counterparts.
The U.S. Labor Department said its consumer price index climbed by 0.3% in December after inching up by 0.1% in November. Economists had expected consumer prices to rise by 0.2%.
The report also showed the annual rate of consumer price growth accelerated to 3.4% in December from 3.1% in November. The annual rate of growth was expected to tick up to 3.2%.
Meanwhile, the annual rate of growth by core consumer prices slowed to 3.9% in December from 4% in November. Economists had expected the pace of core price growth to decelerate to 3.8%.
A number of economists have said the data makes the U.S. central bank less likely to cut interest rates in March, with many predicting the central bank will hold off until its May meeting.
A separate report released by the Labor Department showed first-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits unexpectedly edged slightly lower in the week ended January 6th, falling to 202,000, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week's revised level of 203,000. Economists had expected jobless claims to rise to 210,000 from the 202,000 originally reported for the previous week.
The dollar index climbed to 102.76 after the release of the Labor Department's inflation data, but has dropped to 102.31 now, down marginally from the previous close.
Against the Euro, the dollar is flat at 1.0974, after having firmed to 1.0931 earlier. The dollar is weak against Pound Sterling at 1.2763, easing from 1.2690 a unit of the British currency.
Against the Japanese currency, the dollar weakened to 145.32 yen. The dollar had firmed to 146.42 in early New York session after the inflation data.
The dollar is up marginally against the Aussie at 0.6688. Against Swiss franc, the dollar is up, fetching CHF 0.8520 a unit. The greenback is up slightly against the Loonie at C$1.3397.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2224207/
Oil Futures Settle Higher On Supply Concerns
Oil futures settled higher on Thursday as prices rebounded on likely disruptions in trade and supplies amid rising tensions in the Middle East.
According to reports, Iran seized a tanker with Iraqi crude marked for delivery to Turkey on Thursday.
"The Navy of Iran's Army has announced the seizure of an American oil tanker in the Gulf of Oman with a judicial order," Iranian state media said, citing a statement from the Army.
The St Nikolas tanker had been the focus of US attention when it was accused of illegally smuggling Iranian crude oil despite sanctions and the U.S. Justice Department levied a fine of $2.4 million on the owner of the ship.
Signs of an escalating conflict in the Middle East after another Israeli strike in Rafah, supported oil prices.
Israel bombarded the southern Gaza Strip overnight, as U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken prepared to travel to Egypt for more talks aimed at containing Israel's war against Hamas.
Recent data showing a sharp increase in U.S. crude inventories limited the uptick in oil prices.
West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures for February ended higher by $0.65 at $72.02 a barrel.
Brent crude futures were up $0.70 or 0.91% at $77.50 a barrel a little while ago.
Data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed crude oil inventories in the U.S. rose by 1.338 million barrels last week, as against forecasts for a decline of about 700,000 barrels.
Gasoline stocks increased 8 million barrels last week to 245 million barrels, while distillate stockpiles rose by 6.5 million barrels last week to 132.4 million barrels, the highest level since September 2021.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2224205/
Thursday, 11 January 2024
*New Zealand Building Permits -10.6% On Month In November
New Zealand Building Permits -10.6% On Month In November
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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2224130/
US Inflation Preview: How Will Gold Prices, Nasdaq 100 and the US Dollar React?
Treasuries Turn Modestly Lower After Early Move To The Upside
Treasuries moved to the upside in early trading on Wednesday but came under pressure over the course of the session.
Bond prices pulled back well off their early highs and into negative territory. Subsequently, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, crept up by 1.1 basis points to 4.030 percent after hitting a low of 3.985 percent.
The downturn by treasuries came as bond traders expressed caution ahead of the release of key U.S. inflation data in the comings days.
The Labor Department's reports on consumer and producer price inflation, which are due to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively, could have a significant impact on the outlook for interest rates.
With economists expecting the reports to show slowdowns in the annual rate of core price growth, the data could bolster optimism about near-term rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
However, if the data surprises to the episode, it could add to recent skepticism about whether the Fed will begin cutting rates in March.
Ahead of the reports, CME Group's FedWatch Tool is currently indicating a 64.5 percent chance the Fed will cut rates by a quarter point at its March meeting.
Meanwhile, traders seemed to shrug off the results of the Treasury Department's auction of $37 billion worth of ten-year notes, which attracted above average demand.
The ten-year note auction drew a high yield of 4.024 percent and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.56, while the ten previous ten-year note auctions had an average bid-to-cover ratio of 2.46.
The bid-to-cover ratio is a measure of demand that indicates the amount of bids for each dollar worth of securities being sold.
The Labor Department's report on consumer price inflation is likely to be in the spotlight on Thursday, overshadowing a separate report on weekly jobless claims.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2224128/
Wednesday, 10 January 2024
Dollar Rises Against Major Rivals Ahead Of Inflation Data
The U.S. dollar moved higher against its major counterparts on Tuesday, ahead of the crucial inflation data, due later in the week.
The dollar was supported by hawkish comments from some Fed officials. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic on Monday reiterated his expectation of two rate cuts by the Fed this year.
Separately, Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman backed eventual rate cuts if inflation falls further towards the Fed's 2 percent target.
Market participants are pricing in about a 59.1% chance of a rate cut by March, compared with a 69.6% chance last week.
In economic news today, a report released by the Commerce Department showed the trade deficit narrowed to $63.2 billion in November from a revised $64.5 billion in October. Economists had expected the trade deficit to widen to $65.0 billion from the $64.3 billion originally reported for the previous month.
The unexpectedly smaller trade deficit came as the value of imports tumbled by 1.9 percent to $316.9 billion, while the value of export slumped by 1.9 percent to $253.7 billion.
The dollar index, which climbed to 102.66 around late morning, was hovering around 102.55 a little while ago, gaining more than 0.3%.
Against the Euro, the dollar strengthened to 1.0930, gaining about 0.2%. Against Pound Sterling, the dollar firmed to 1.2706, up from Monday's close of 1.2706 against a unit of Sterling.
The dollar gained against the Japanese currency, fetching 144.47 a unit, up from 144.23 yen a unit. Against the Aussie, the dollar was up at 0.6687, firming from 0.6721.
The dollar firmed to CHF 0.8527 from CHF 0.8479. Against the Loonie, the dollar climbed to C$ 1.3393 from C$ 1.3348.
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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2224062/
Oil Futures Settle Notably Higher On Geopolitical Tensions
Oil prices climbed higher on Tuesday, rebounding from previous session's losses, as rising geopolitical risks raised concerns about possible supply and trade disruptions.
West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures for February settled higher by $1.47 at $72.24 a barrel.
Brent crude futures ended higher by $1.47 or 1.9% at $77.59 a barrel.
Oil prices fell on Monday, dropping about 4%, after Saudi Arabia cut its selling prices to the lowest level in two years. Reports showing a jump in OPEC supply hurt as well.
Geopolitical tensions, and the closure of Libya's largest oilfield contributed to the jump in oil prices today.
The closure of the Sharara oilfield in Libya, which is one of the biggest in the country, has resulted in a shortfall of 300,000 barrels per day.
Due to security threats from Houthi militants amid the tensions in the Middle East, several major shipping companies are staying away from the Red Sea route.
Traders await weekly inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) and U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). The API data is due later today, while EIA's report is due Wednesday morning.
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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2224060/
Gold Price and USD/JPY Forecast: US Inflation Outcome to Drive Market Direction
Tuesday, 9 January 2024
*South Korea Current Account Surplus $4.06 Billion In November
South Korea Current Account Surplus $4.06 Billion In November
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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2223986/
Japan Household Spending Data Due On Tuesday
Japan will on Tuesday release November numbers for household spending, highlighting a modest day for Asia-Pacific economic activity. Spending is expected to rise 0.2 percent on month and fall 2.3 percent on year after slipping 0.1 percent on month and 2.5 percent on year in October.
Japan also will see December results for Tokyo inflation; in November, overall inflation rose 2.6 percent on year and core CPI was up an annual 2.3 percent.
South Korea will provide November figures for current account in October the current account surplus was $6.80 billion.
Australia will release November numbers for building approvals and retail sales. Approvals are expected to sink 2.0 percent on month after jumping 7.5 percent in October. Retail sales are called higher by 1.2 percent on month after easing 0.2 percent a month earlier.
Taiwan will see December data for imports, exports and trade balance. Imports are expected to fall 7.3 percent on month after tumbling 14.8 percent in November. Exports are called higher by an annual 4.9 percent, up from 3.8 percent in the previous month. The trade surplus is pegged at TWD8.70 billion, down from TWD9.80 billion a month earlier.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2223985/
Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD’s Trend Hinges on US Inflation Data. What Now?
Oil Futures Settle Sharply Lower As Saudi Arabia Cuts Prices
Oil prices fell sharply on Monday, as Saudi Arabia's decision to cut prices offset concerns about an escalation in the Middle East conflict.
West Texas Intermediate Crude futures for February ended down $3.04 or about 4.4% at $70.77 a barrel.
Brent crude futures settled at $76.12 a barrel, down $2.74 from the previous close.
Saudi Arabia cut oil prices sharply to Asian markets, pushing the rates to the lowest level in 27 months, amid competition from rival suppliers and concerns about supply overheating.
Saudi Aramco slashed the official selling price (OSP) for February-loading Arab Light to Asia by $2 a barrel from January to $1.50 a barrel over Oman/Dubai quotes.
A report from Reuters said the output from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) rose 70,000 barrels per day in December to 27.88 million barrels per day.
On the geopolitical front, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned that the conflict in Gaza could "easily" spill over into a full-blown regional conflict.
Israel struck Hamas and Hezbollah terror facilities in Khan Yunis and Lebanon in overnight strikes, the Israel D?fense Forces said earlier today.
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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2223984/
Monday, 8 January 2024
European Economic News Preview: Eurozone Economic Sentiment, Retail Sales Data Due
Economic confidence and retail sales from the euro area are due on Monday, headlining a light day for the European economic news.
At 2.00 am ET, Destatis is scheduled to issue Germany's factory orders and foreign trade figures. Orders are forecast to grow 1.0 percent on month in November, in contrast to the 3.7 percent decrease in October. Exports are expected to rise 0.3 percent month-on-month, following a 0.2 percent drop.
In the meantime, manufacturing output data is due from Norway.
At 2.30 am ET, Switzerland's Federal Statistical Office publishes consumer prices and retail sales reports. Inflation is expected to rise slightly to 1.5 percent in December from 1.4 percent in November.
At 4.30 am ET, Eurozone Sentix investor confidence survey results are due. The investor sentiment index is seen at -15.5 in January compared to -16.8 in December. At 5.00 am ET, economic sentiment survey results and retail sales data are due from the euro area. Economists forecast retail sales to fall 0.3 percent on a monthly basis in November, reversing a 0.1 percent rise in October.
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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2223925/
*The Stock Markets In Japan Are Closed On Monday For Coming Of Age Day And Will Re-open On Tuesday
The Stock Markets In Japan Are Closed On Monday For Coming Of Age Day And Will Re-open On Tuesday
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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2223924/
Sunday, 7 January 2024
Markets Q1 Outlook: Gold, Stocks, EUR/USD, GBP/USD & USD/JPY Eye Fed, US Yields
US Dollar Q1 Technical Forecast – Setups on DXY, EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD
Equities Q1 Fundamental Outlook: Rate Cuts and Geopolitics in Focus
Gold, Silver Q1 Technical Forecast: Price Action Setups for the Near Term
Saturday, 6 January 2024
U.S. Dollar Little Changed Following Jobs Data
Following the modest pullback seen during Thursday's trading, the value of the U.S. dollar has shown a lack of direction on Friday.
The U.S. dollar index has bounced back and forth across the unchanged line and is currently up just 0.05 points or 0.1 percent at 102.47.
The greenback is trading at 144.73 yen versus the 144.63 yen it fetched at the close of New York trading on Thursday. Against the euro, the dollar is valued at $1.0940 compared to yesterday's $1.0945.
The volatility on the day comes as traders react to the release of some key U.S. economic data, including a closely watched Labor Department report showing stronger than expected job growth in December.
While the data initially raised concerns about the outlook for interest rates, positive sentiment prevailed as traders digested the details of the report, which also showed notable downward revisions to job growth in October and November.
The Labor Department said non-farm payroll employment surged by 216,000 jobs in December compared to economist estimates for an increase of about 170,000 jobs.
At the same time, the increases in employment in October and November were downwardly revised to 105,000 jobs and 173,000 jobs, respectively, reflecting a net downward revision of 71,000 jobs.
"There's no recession threat in this report, nor any reason for the Fed to worry about overheating," said FHN Financial Chief Economist Chris Low. "It is as safely down the middle as they come."
The Institute for Supply Management also released a report showing a bigger than expected slowdown in the pace of U.S. service sector growth.
The ISM said its services PMI fell to 50.6 in December from 52.7 in November. While a reading above 50 still indicates growth, economists had expected the index to show a much more modest decrease to 52.6.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2223923/
Gold Goes On Roller Coaster Ride Before Closing Nearly Flat
The price of gold saw substantial volatility during trading on Friday before eventually ending the session roughly flat.
After showing wild swings back and forth across the unchanged line, gold for February delivery closed down just $0.20 or less than a tenth of a percent at $2,049.80 an ounce.
The roughly flat close came after gold reached a low of $2,030.80 an ounce and a high of $2,071.10 an ounce.
The volatility seen by gold on the day came as the U.S. dollar has also been on a roller coaster ride following the release of some key U.S. economic data.
Gold initially slumped following the release of a closely watched Labor Department report showing stronger than expected job growth in December.
The data raised concerns about the outlook for interest rates and contributed to a jump by the dollar, although the worries eased as traders digested the details of the report, which also showed notable downward revisions to job growth in October and November.
The price of gold subsequently regained ground and surged into positive territory after a separate report from the Institute for Supply Management showed a bigger than expected slowdown in the pace of U.S. service sector growth.
The ISM said its services PMI fell to 50.6 in December from 52.7 in November. While a reading above 50 still indicates growth, economists had expected the index to show a much more modest decrease to 52.6.
Buying interest waned shortly afterward, however, with gold pulling back toward the unchanged as traders looked ahead to the release of key U.S. inflation data next week.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2223920/
Friday, 5 January 2024
Treasuries Move Back To The Downside Ahead Of Jobs Report
After recovering from early weakness and turning higher over the course of the previous session, treasuries moved back to the downside during trading on Thursday.
Bond prices came under pressure at the start of trading and remained firmly negative throughout the day. Subsequently, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, jumped 8.4 basis points to 3.991 percent.
The pullback by treasuries came amid renewed uncertainty about the outlook for interest rates following the release of the minutes of the Federal Reserve's latest monetary policy meeting on Wednesday.
While the minutes reiterated Fed officials widely expect to begin lowering rates in 2024, they also highlighted an "unusually elevated degree of uncertainty" about the outlook.
Adding to concerns the Fed may not begin lowering rates as soon as expected, payroll processor ADP released a report showing private sector employment in the U.S. increased by more than expected in the month of December.
ADP said private sector employment climbed by 164,000 jobs in December after rising by a downwardly revised 101,000 jobs in November.
Economists had expected private sector employment to grow by 115,000 jobs compared to the addition of 103,000 jobs originally reported for the previous month.
A separate report released by the Labor Department showed first-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits fell by much more than expected in the week ended December 30th.
The Labor Department said initial jobless claims declined to 202,000, a decrease of 18,000 from the previous week's revised level of 220,000.
Economists had expected jobless claims to edge down to 216,000 from the 218,000 originally reported for the previous week.
Trading on Friday is likely to be driven by reaction to the Labor Department's more closely watched report on employment in the month of December.
Economists currently expect employment to increase by 170,000 jobs in December after jumping by 199,000 jobs in November. The unemployment rate is expected to inch up to 3.8 percent from 3.7 percent.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2223835/
Thursday, 4 January 2024
Fed Minutes Highlight 'Unusually Elevated Degree Of Uncertainty' About Outlook
The minutes of the Federal Reserve's latest monetary policy meeting reiterated officials widely expect to begin lowering interest rates in 2024, although they also highlighted an "unusually elevated degree of uncertainty" about the outlook for rates and the economy.
Projections provided by Fed officials at the December 12-13 meeting suggested three quarter point rate cuts by the central bank are likely by the end of 2024.
The forecasts were backed up by the minutes, which said baseline projections implied that a lower target range for the federal funds rate would be appropriate by the end of 2024.
However, the minutes said participants also noted an unusually elevated degree of uncertainty and that it was possible further rate increases could be appropriate.
Several participants also observed that circumstances might warrant keeping rates at current levels for longer than they currently anticipated, the minutes said.
The Fed said, "Participants generally stressed the importance of maintaining a careful and data-dependent approach to making monetary policy decisions."
The minutes indicated the high degree of uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook was partly due to the possibility that the momentum of economic activity may be stronger than currently assessed, posing an upside risk to both inflation and economic activity.
Participants also observed that financial conditions had eased over the intermeeting period, potentially making it more difficult for the Fed to reach its goal of 2 percent inflation over time.
The effects geopolitical developments have on global energy and food prices, a potential rebound in core goods prices and the effects of nearshoring and onshoring activities also pose upside risks to inflation, the minutes said.
Meanwhile, a number of participants pointed to the downside risks to the economy that would be associated with an overly restrictive policy stance, with a few suggesting the Fed could potentially face a tradeoff between its dual-mandate goals in the period ahead.
The Fed's next monetary policy meeting is scheduled for January 25-26, with the central bank widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged.
CME Group's FedWatch Tool currently indicates there is a 66.5 percent chance the Fed could lower rates by a quarter point at its following meeting in March.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2223753/
Wednesday, 3 January 2024
U.S. Dollar Starts New Year On Upbeat Note
Following a disappointing final month of 2023, the value of the U.S. dollar showed a strong move to the upside to start the new year.
The U.S. dollar index has jumped 0.90 points or 0.9 percent to 102.23, climbing further off the five-month lows set during trading last week.
The buck is trading at 142.01 yen versus the 141.06 yen it fetched at the close of New York trading on Friday. Against the euro, the dollar is trading at $1.0942 compared to last Friday's $1.1036.
The advance by the dollar may reflect its appeal a safe haven, as Middle East tensions escalated after U.S. helicopters repelled an attack on Sunday by Iran-backed Houthi militants on a Maersk container vessel in the Red Sea.
Iran subsequently announced that it has dispatched a destroyer to the Red Sea, although state media said the Alborz destroyer is operating as part of the flotillas that take part in regular missions in international waters.
The increase in the value of the U.S. dollar also comes amid a notable increase by treasury yields, with the benchmark ten-year yield climbing further off last week's five-month lows.
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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2223707/
Treasuries Pull Back Further Off Recent Highs
Following the pullback seen over the two previous sessions, treasuries saw further downside during the first trading day of the new year on Tuesday.
Bond prices regained some ground after an initial slump but remained firmly in negative territory. As a result the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, jumped 8.0 basis points to 3.946 percent.
The ten-year yield closed higher for the third consecutive session, climbing well off the five-month closing low set last Wednesday.
The continued weakness among treasuries may have reflected concerns recent strength in the bond market was overdone even as the Federal Reserve is still widely expected to begin cutting interest rates in the coming months.
CME Group's FedWatch Tool is currently indicating a 71.9 percent chance the Fed will cut rates by a quarter point in March.
In U.S. economic news, a report released by the Commerce Department showed construction spending rose by slightly less than expected in November, although the report also showed a significant upward revision to the increase in spending in October.
The Commerce Department said construction spending climbed by 0.4 percent to an annual rate of $2.050 trillion in November after surging by 1.2 percent to an upwardly revised rate of $2.043 trillion in October.
Economists had expected construction spending to rise by 0.5 percent compared to the 0.6 percent increase originally reported for the previous month.
Early trading on Wednesday may be impacted by reaction to separate U.S. reports on manufacturing activity and job openings.
Later in the day, trading may be driven by reaction to the minutes of the Federal Reserve's latest monetary policy meeting, which could impact the outlook for interest rates.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2223705/
Tuesday, 2 January 2024
*Philippines Dec Manufacturing PMI 51.5 Vs. 52.7 In Nov - S&P Global
Philippines Dec Manufacturing PMI 51.5 Vs. 52.7 In Nov - S&P Global
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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2223636/
Monday, 1 January 2024
*South Korea Dec Exports Up 5.1% On Year, Consensus 6.6%
South Korea Dec Exports Up 5.1% On Year, Consensus 6.6%
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source http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2223633/